Planning for the inevitible future - will you be buying a petrol car just before new ICE is banned?

Soldato
Joined
11 Oct 2005
Posts
4,796
Location
Manchester, UK
If the way we currently use the cars in our household continues, we will be going EV sooner rather than later. The range is not a big issue for me and lockdown really highlighted the difference in air quality that stems from a big decrease in ICE emissions; especially a big city.
 
Soldato
Joined
30 Sep 2003
Posts
15,875
Location
Norwich
That sounds really convenient - I can't wait.
Honest question - just how much range would be acceptable for you? I occasionally think about this and I've got two figures as we're a two car family.

My car - 200 miles real world. Its a work car and to an extent I need the convenience of being able to charge when its convenient to me and my schedule not just when I've burnt up all my battery capacity. 200 mile range would require a shift in my work patterns as mentioned in a previous thread (spending time working while the car charges instead of from a hotel room etc.) but I could make 200 miles work.

Second car - Ideally 125 mile real world. My wife never does more than 60 miles in a day but 125 would fit our weekends where the car often sits in a little rural car park all day and we just want to get home after a full day out. We could live with less though as we could take my car out on the weekend.

Obviously the big caveat for the first of those figures is available, reliable and fast on route charging that doesn't cost the earth. That will really determine when its right for me to make the jump (well, to try and convince my employer to get me an EV anyway).

As for the original question, who knows what the next 9 years will bring but if momentum has really shifted to an EV future I think you'd be mad to buy a new ICE right at the eleventh hour. I'm sure whatever emission regulations an ICE is designed to meet by that point will have knocked any fun or character out of the powerplant anyway. You then mention the next decade or two so who is to say what Unleaded availability will be like in 2050? Will it be like trying to buy 4 star today? I mean you can get it but its horrifically expensive and scarce. I can understand the desire to keep an ICE if that floats your boat but a classic (by 2030 standards) or something from the next couple of years would probably be a better buy.
 
Caporegime
Joined
22 Oct 2002
Posts
26,810
Location
Boston, Lincolnshire
EU7 ICE is only going to get more expensive whilst BEV does the opposite.



does that mean I have to get a slower car aswell? Imagine carrying 400miles of energy around? I thought we were after fun cars.

The tech will get there eventually as well as weight. When the focus from the top manufacturers switches the development speed will skyrocket. I would have thought reasonable weight 400 mile cars will become the norm in 10 years time.
 
Soldato
Joined
19 Jul 2005
Posts
7,069
Location
S. Yorkshire
I'm driving a car that is 16 years old already, and hope to runt that for a good few years before it dies on me.
I tried the PHEV option just before this car but it bored the hole off me as a form of transport, so until we get some affordable, interesting and practical 4x4 options I'll be sticking with ICE for a while yet.
 
Soldato
Joined
30 Sep 2003
Posts
15,875
Location
Norwich
The tech will get there eventually as well as weight. When the focus from the top manufacturers switches the development speed will skyrocket. I would have thought reasonable weight 400 mile cars will become the norm in 10 years time.
Is that really what is holding people back though? Imagine if petrol had 1/4 of the energy density that it does now. Would we all be driving cars with 240L fuel tanks? In fact, why don't we fit 240L fuel tanks to our cars now. Then we can have a 1600 mile range.

There comes a point where the compromise of carrying the energy (in any form) outweighs the convenience of the range it provides.

More chargers and quicker charging rates seem to me to be a better focus for development than carrying a bigger battery. Yes, battery tech will improve but then what's better at that point? Half the weight or double the range?
 
Soldato
Joined
19 Oct 2002
Posts
16,407
Location
Shakespeare’s County
The tech will get there eventually as well as weight. When the focus from the top manufacturers switches the development speed will skyrocket. I would have thought reasonable weight 400 mile cars will become the norm in 10 years time.

I agree, particularly Toyota potential of solid state. Still 250miles would be a potential 1000 kg sports car. Still on home supply you would struggle to charge to full every night and then it’s a bit of “what’s the point”.

Meanwhile everyone is using more energy than they have to with larger cars than they need putting more demand on the grid than necessary.

I can see the 2030 thing slipping anyway. I can’t see the supply base gearing up that fast anyway.
 

mjt

mjt

Soldato
Joined
31 Aug 2007
Posts
19,997
Is that really what is holding people back though? Imagine if petrol had 1/4 of the energy density that it does now. Would we all be driving cars with 240L fuel tanks? In fact, why don't we fit 240L fuel tanks to our cars now. Then we can have a 1600 mile range.

There comes a point where the compromise of carrying the energy (in any form) outweighs the convenience of the range it provides.

More chargers and quicker charging rates seem to me to be a better focus for development than carrying a bigger battery. Yes, battery tech will improve but then what's better at that point? Half the weight or double the range?
I know you've asked Fox, but I just couldn't live with a BEV as our only car for the moment. We often travel up to Denmark overnight non-stop. I fill up in Brussels and then again once we cross into Denmark. We travel in the middle of the night and I can do it in under 8 hours if I really go for it. Trips like this just aren't currently possible with BEVs; will they ever be? Granted, 750 miles is a bit extreme for a BEV, but something like 400 miles really should be achievable one day, won't it?

I love my i3, but the range is woeful.
 
Soldato
Joined
30 Sep 2003
Posts
15,875
Location
Norwich
I know you've asked Fox, but I just couldn't live with a BEV as our only car for the moment. We often travel up to Denmark overnight non-stop. I fill up in Brussels and then again once we cross into Denmark. We travel in the middle of the night and I can do it in under 8 hours if I really go for it. Trips like this just aren't currently possible with BEVs; will they ever be? Granted, 750 miles is a bit extreme for a BEV, but something like 400 miles really should be achievable one day, won't it?

I love my i3, but the range is woeful.
Walking around our village I notice a lot of houses with a larger ICE car and a Zoe, Leaf etc. I guess at the moment they make the perfect second car for people. We were certainly considering it but then ended up with our Polo for a price we couldn't say no to.

I'm not a martyr by any stretch but often at the end of a work trip I'll do 250+ miles non stop because I'm feeling fresh enough to do it but far more often I'll stop for 20 minutes which I'd happily extend to 30 if that gave me the juice to get home on a single stop. Your examples though, I agree, doesn't sound suitable for you.
 
Soldato
Joined
19 Oct 2002
Posts
16,407
Location
Shakespeare’s County
Walking around our village I notice a lot of houses with a larger ICE car and a Zoe, Leaf etc. I guess at the moment they make the perfect second car for people. We were certainly considering it but then ended up with our Polo for a price we couldn't say no to.

If you knock on the door and ask which they use the most it won’t be the “second car” ;)
 
Soldato
Joined
10 Apr 2013
Posts
3,737
I wondered the same thing as I'm pondering whether I should buy another ICE car, my current is 5 years old, or if it would make more sense just to run the thing until it falls to bits and switch to electric nearer 2030.

I don't think ICE cars will vanish but I suspect we'll see city centre bans or extortionate charges alongside a massive hike in fuel duty to push customers away from them and to encourage folk to scrap in favour of electric.

They're getting better every year but now there isn't an electric car that appeals due to the high cost, low range and lack of charging infrastructure. I also have concerns about the long term reliability and battery lifecycle/replacement costs of electric vehicles.
 
Last edited:
Caporegime
Joined
22 Oct 2002
Posts
26,810
Location
Boston, Lincolnshire
Walking around our village I notice a lot of houses with a larger ICE car and a Zoe, Leaf etc. I guess at the moment they make the perfect second car for people. We were certainly considering it but then ended up with our Polo for a price we couldn't say no to.

I'm not a martyr by any stretch but often at the end of a work trip I'll do 250+ miles non stop because I'm feeling fresh enough to do it but far more often I'll stop for 20 minutes which I'd happily extend to 30 if that gave me the juice to get home on a single stop. Your examples though, I agree, doesn't sound suitable for you.

Even still it's all marketing spiel. Those "Second" cars are still thousands of pounds more than the equivalent ICE car to buy so the savings are non existent.

A base 1 series is 5-6k cheaper than a leaf just as an example. I do 12k a year currently but even that only costs me just over a grand in petrol a year so I would need to drive the leaf for near enough a decade to make back the extra cost.

Okay so instead I buy an EV to "save the environment" yet anyone with half a brain cell would know that the true eco solution would be to run a used car that has already had its carbon footprint.

I am all for cleaning up the environment but consumerism just makes a mockery of it. Perhaps I am a closet communist at heart!
 
Man of Honour
Joined
13 Oct 2006
Posts
90,807
Nothing else replicates for me the experience of driving a good V6 :( and that is half the enjoyment of driving for me.

Range is still an issue for me - even with things like being able to charge at home, etc. versus trips to the fuel station - ~400 miles is a natural fit for my requirements even though I don't tend to do a lot of miles my patterns can be hugely varied.

Ultimately though what holds me back is the amount of money I can justify spending on a vehicle vs the capabilities I need - for its uses I just can't justify spending more than about £20K on a pickup but I can't see EV vehicles of that nature being less than about 4 times that any time remotely soon, etc. otherwise I'd probably change over much sooner.
 
Man of Honour
Joined
25 Oct 2002
Posts
31,707
Location
Hampshire
I was thinking the other day it may be worth getting a 79 plate or whatever as presumably they should hold their value well given that there won't be any newer ICE cars coming on the market. That said, who knows what legislation will be in place by then, they may end up costing a lot more to run than electric equivalents (higher taxes, increased petrol prices due to reduced economies of scale, etc).
 
Soldato
Joined
1 Apr 2003
Posts
11,890
Location
Northamptonshire
I wonder if you would be so pro EV if you didn't keep being given brand new ones for free/trivial amounts of money? :p

That doesnt make his statement wrong. For example barely use our other (ICE) car now we have a BEV, and I'd imagine many other households will do the same, for the same reasons.
 
Back
Top Bottom