Nvidia 270/290 in deep trouble (GT200 based GX2 dead as well)

[Boogle]

Because it wasent ready, I do think NV should be quicker with thier die shrinks and that goes for the whole range top to bottom.

This might be a turning point. ATI tend to release new GPUs with new processes at the same time. Intel swore off this method a looonnngggg time ago because things can go badly wrong. NV abandoned it because they got burned with the FX5800 - new arch & new process. Since then they've followed the Intel model. Truth be told, I don't doubt they'll continue on, since they're having trouble with 55nm - what if GT200 was meant to be 55nm from the beginning? It would have been delayed by at least half a year putting the 4870 up against the 9800GTX+. Prices and competition would have been very different. Of course the next GPU from NV is bucking the trend, new arch on a new process. But they hit a snag, TSMC's 40nm process is a bit broken and the GPU has been delayed by 4-6 months.

 

[joe pineapples]

and heres something posted yesterday by that other fountain of knowledge - Fudzilla

It’s alive

We don't have any additional details, but sometime in December we should finally see Nvidia's refresh of the GT200 series and this time it will be a 55nm chip. The introduction might even take place in November, but the real McCoy will come in December.

Naturally, it should end up cooler and faster, probably clocked a bit higher than the current GT200, and it could be paired up in a dual card, the rumored dual GT200 55nm card, that is.

Nvidia hopes to narrow the gap between ATI cards and its own, or if all goes well to get the performance crown back. This is Nvidia’s only hope, as its real hope, the 40nm chips, are coming March 2009 at the earliest, and we suspect that Q2 2009 is a much more realistic time frame. Until then, they have to try to fight ATI with all they have.

 

[Tute]

What do ATi have in the works? Are they planning a respin of 4870 on a lower process?

 

[psychas]

What do ATi have in the works? Are they planning a respin of 4870 on a lower process?

they probably concentrating on 5800 series. 4800 price should go down eventually

 

[555BUK]

Other than sticking two 4850's/4870's and calling the result "X2", what new inovations have ATI released in the past 6 months? The truth is demand drives supply (and visa-versa) and if there is no demand for new product at a profitable price point nobody will manufacture it.

Both ATI and NVidia will suffer equally in the coming year as consumers hoard their pennies. Both will be reluctant to spend huge ammounts on R&D and Fab shrinks.

 

[Rroff]

That brings us to the GX2/dual card. Suppliers tell us that it is quite dead. We thought it was an impossible thing to pull off when we first analysed the part, and it looks like several universal physical constants agreed with us. Thermodynamics is a bitch.

suppliers? what on earth do suppliers have to do with this? there is nothing to prevent nVidia pulling off a "260GX2" right now if they wanted to. There are no major deal breaking, dead in the water thermodynamic issues with a traditional GX2 style card - 2 cores on the same PCB or even die maybe...

The writing style and quality of that news post leaves a lot to be desired.

 

[Lightnix]

What do ATi have in the works? Are they planning a respin of 4870 on a lower process?

If ATi are staying true to their current 'somewhere between 6-8 months' development cycle that they seem to be on, there should be a refresh of the 4800 series sometime next year. I think the 5800 series are the most likely candidates for this, with apparently not that much more processing power than the 4800 series (I think 1.5TFLOPS was quoted somewhere?). That probably means ATi's next truly large GPU step will come later that year, probably around October to December.

I base this on the small trend we've seen so far with the sort of tick-tock like strategy with current ATi GPUs (2900 (May '07), 3800 (Nov '07), 4800 (July '08)).

Edit: That said, I wouldn't hold my breath for a GX2 style card this side of Christmas from Nvidia, the 55nm GT206 core is still pretty huge and to put a 448-bit memory interface on two cards which also have to have the appropriate inter-card connectors and enough room for an appropriate cooling solution... well long story short it'd be pretty huge.

 

[HighlandeR]

hopefully totaly untrue news am still planning on my Xmas present this year lol

And would be nice too have a cool running chip set that's efficient and cool/silent

 

[w3bbo]

I wouldn't trust the writer of that news tbh.

 

[beefybarn]

The biggest thing to hit nvidia is that people now realise that they were being ripped off with the prices for the 200 series, how quickly did they drop once they had competition. I will now not buy nvidia again and about 90% of my mates feel the same, we were all robbed.

 

[queamin]

come on - ati were in exactly this position from the 2900 until the 48 series was launched

its good that they are getting some market domination

the 8800gtx kind of put ati to bed for a bit - but now its nvidias turn to struggle

swings and roundabouts i guess

Not really the 260/280 are good cards and compare well with ati,where the 2900 was no where near the 8800gtx

 

[queamin]

I think the people that paid £160/£230 for 260/280's a few months ago have had the advantage.

Yes i think so aswell they will have had a few months of use out of them by the time 55nm are out.

 

[TheRealDeal]

Tbh i don't think 55nm is really gonna make a big difference. It looked like with the heat failures of the gtx280 they needed it badly but now thats all fixed its really not gonna mean much the gtx260/280 already overclock pretty well. I think nvidia need it more than the consumer to bring there costs down and i don't really see it affecting the prices we are going to see as nv really need to make some decent profits as the profit margins from the gtx series can't really be much on each core sold. I think ati are the opposite there cards have a lot less transistor count and most likely they are making a lot of profit from each gpu sold.

 

[uv]

Charlie Demerjian in slating nvidia shocker!

 

[Rimsy]

Charlie Demerjian in slating nvidia shocker!

I swear that guy is just some office junior pleb who makes the tea and fetches lunch... they probably just let him write his drivvel when they dont have enough "proper" stories to meet their daily quota.

 

[Peter450]

Well it's always been the case that ATI and Nvidia have traded blows, TBH i don't see much wrong with the current 260/280 there solid cards and work well with in practically everygame, only problem i see is from a company point of view, they probably don't make as much money as Nvidia would like, but thats not really something i'm going to worry about

It's good that ATI are making competive cards again, if the 48 series were rubbish we'd be paying 450+ for GTX 280's and 300+ for 260's, i remember how much the 8800 ultra's were, as it was GTX 280's came down to just over £200 at one point and if not for the current instability in financial markets i expect they would be closer to £250, than £300

I'm glad Nvidia are not dominating as it would mean far higher prices for top end cards

 

[MR.B]

We need a giant rolling eye smiley stat!

I just wanted to make this picture appear again as i dont think just once was enough for the stupidity of starting a thread on a Charlie Demerjian "article"

You massive muppet.

 

[pegasus1]

hopefully totaly untrue news am still planning on my Xmas present this year lol

And would be nice too have a cool running chip set that's efficient and cool/silent

Me too mate, Back in 3 weeks and have set a £1500 limit for new rig (not including monitor) to be purchased before Xmas. The trouble is would i get anything that is massively faster than my current [email protected]/8800GTX setup (Not booted up for 6 months )
The only component ive not gone firm(ish) on is the GFX Card, P45 and E8600 will form the base but what GFX???????????

 

[psychas]

get q9550 e0 instead e8600

 

[The Asgard]

get q9550 e0 instead e8600

Why?

The E8600 will clock higher, use less power and give you a better min frame rate in games due to higher clocks. If he needs a quad for specific apps fair enough.