Not sure if troll or just stupid (you decide)
- Thread starter estebanrey
- Start date
This is just stupid...
Sure you use maths to say that everyone has the same change at the start.
In my head:
Holly going 1st she has a 1/6 chance of getting the bad egg
The next person has a 1/5 chance and so on
As far as I'm concerned the fact that the next person may not have to do it and it counters the difference in the probability doesn't matter what so ever and should't even be taken into account.
Holly has a 1/6 change of getting bad egg if she goes 1st.
She has a 50/50 chance of she goes 5th REGARDLESS of if no one has smashed the raw yet as there is 1 raw 1 boiled THATS 50/50.
I know maths says otherwise, but its just stupid in my head to think that way.
Sure you use maths to say that everyone has the same change at the start.
In my head:
Holly going 1st she has a 1/6 chance of getting the bad egg
The next person has a 1/5 chance and so on
As far as I'm concerned the fact that the next person may not have to do it and it counters the difference in the probability doesn't matter what so ever and should't even be taken into account.
Holly has a 1/6 change of getting bad egg if she goes 1st.
She has a 50/50 chance of she goes 5th REGARDLESS of if no one has smashed the raw yet as there is 1 raw 1 boiled THATS 50/50.
I know maths says otherwise, but its just stupid in my head to think that way.
Soldato
What sort of eggs were they?
OP is right, I think its like a convoluted Monty Hall problem? Or at least very similar. Either way he's correct.
Or use branches for the probabilities, draw it out. Easier to understand then.
Start with two paths, 5/6 for good egg, 1/6 for bad. Path ends at 1/6 for bad.
Next path, 4/5 for good egg, 1/5 for bad. Can only occur providing first was good egg, so have to factor in previous probability of good egg. 5/6 * 1/5, paths ends again at 1/6 for bad egg.
Next path, 3/4 for good egg, 1/4 for bad. Can only occur providing first AND second were good egg, so factor in the probability of good egg twice. 5/6 * 4/5 * 1/4, paths ends again at 1/6 for bad egg.
So on so forth. No matter when you choose to go, there's a 1/6 chance you get bad egg.
Or use branches for the probabilities, draw it out. Easier to understand then.
Start with two paths, 5/6 for good egg, 1/6 for bad. Path ends at 1/6 for bad.
Next path, 4/5 for good egg, 1/5 for bad. Can only occur providing first was good egg, so have to factor in previous probability of good egg. 5/6 * 1/5, paths ends again at 1/6 for bad egg.
Next path, 3/4 for good egg, 1/4 for bad. Can only occur providing first AND second were good egg, so factor in the probability of good egg twice. 5/6 * 4/5 * 1/4, paths ends again at 1/6 for bad egg.
So on so forth. No matter when you choose to go, there's a 1/6 chance you get bad egg.
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Stupid. Definitely stupid.
An interesting problem along these lines:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
Which is actually what the op has said all along.
OP is right, change the scenario but keep the numbers and the statement the same.
There are 6 dogs, 1 of these dogs is a vicious bugger and will maul their owner to death. Why does picking your dog first give you a better chance of not being mauled? At this point you dont know which is the wrong'n so everyone is just as scared in getting their dog.
On that note I'm off to bed!
There are 6 dogs, 1 of these dogs is a vicious bugger and will maul their owner to death. Why does picking your dog first give you a better chance of not being mauled? At this point you dont know which is the wrong'n so everyone is just as scared in getting their dog.
On that note I'm off to bed!
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Soldato
OP is right, but only because each person is locked into the game at the beginning and it has to go to the end. Which is an important qwerk of Russian roulette.
Soldato
It's very simple if you reduce the number of eggs.
2 eggs, one bad one good:
1st person has 100% chance they have to take their turn * 50% chance they have the bad egg = 50% chance to lose
The second person will only get their go if the first person does not get the bad egg (50% chance). At this point, there is only 1 egg remaining, the bad one, therefore there is a 100% chance the 2nd person will get the bad egg - IF they get their go. 50% chance of having a go * the 100% chance of getting the bad egg = 50% chance to lose. Exactly the same as the first person
3 eggs, one bad two good:
1st person has 100% chance they have to take their turn * 33.33% chance they have the bad egg = 33.33% chance to lose
The second person will only get their go if the first person does not get the bad egg (66.67% chance). At this point, there are 2 eggs remaining, 1 bad, 1 good, therefore there is a 50% chance the 2nd person will get the bad egg - IF they get their go. 66.67% chance of having a go * the 50% chance of getting the bad egg = 33.33% chance to lose. Exactly the same as the first person.
The third person will ONLY get their go if both the first person (66.67%) and second (50%) do not get the bad egg (66.67% * 50% = 33.33%). there is only 1 egg remaining, the bad one, therefore there is a 100% chance the 3rd person will get the bad egg - IF they get their go.. 33.33% chance of having a go * the 100% chance of getting the bad egg = 33.33% chance to lose. Exactly the same as the first and second person.
Feel free to repeat this for as many eggs and people as it takes for it to sink in
if there were 1,000,000 eggs and people, and one was bad, player number 1,000,000 would have a 100% chance of getting the bad egg if it got to their turn - but what are the chances of someone else getting the bad egg before him? 999,999/1,000,000 - pretty good odds imo, exactly the same as the probability of player number 1 picking one of the 999,999 good eggs out of the million....
2 eggs, one bad one good:
1st person has 100% chance they have to take their turn * 50% chance they have the bad egg = 50% chance to lose
The second person will only get their go if the first person does not get the bad egg (50% chance). At this point, there is only 1 egg remaining, the bad one, therefore there is a 100% chance the 2nd person will get the bad egg - IF they get their go. 50% chance of having a go * the 100% chance of getting the bad egg = 50% chance to lose. Exactly the same as the first person
3 eggs, one bad two good:
1st person has 100% chance they have to take their turn * 33.33% chance they have the bad egg = 33.33% chance to lose
The second person will only get their go if the first person does not get the bad egg (66.67% chance). At this point, there are 2 eggs remaining, 1 bad, 1 good, therefore there is a 50% chance the 2nd person will get the bad egg - IF they get their go. 66.67% chance of having a go * the 50% chance of getting the bad egg = 33.33% chance to lose. Exactly the same as the first person.
The third person will ONLY get their go if both the first person (66.67%) and second (50%) do not get the bad egg (66.67% * 50% = 33.33%). there is only 1 egg remaining, the bad one, therefore there is a 100% chance the 3rd person will get the bad egg - IF they get their go.. 33.33% chance of having a go * the 100% chance of getting the bad egg = 33.33% chance to lose. Exactly the same as the first and second person.
Feel free to repeat this for as many eggs and people as it takes for it to sink in
if there were 1,000,000 eggs and people, and one was bad, player number 1,000,000 would have a 100% chance of getting the bad egg if it got to their turn - but what are the chances of someone else getting the bad egg before him? 999,999/1,000,000 - pretty good odds imo, exactly the same as the probability of player number 1 picking one of the 999,999 good eggs out of the million....
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Associate
OP is right, but never mind the eggs I'd love Holly on my face.
Op, to answer your original question, I don't think you're being trolled on YouTube or in this thread. I think many peoples' understanding of probabilities is just much worse than you realised. I applaud your patience in continuing to try to explain it.
Soldato
You're arguing with people on youtube.
You already lost.
You already lost.
Caporegime
I feel like i have missed an epic OCUK thread unfolding.
Op is correct.
In fact, going last would be the best choice, as there would be just a 1 in 6 chance for it even reaching your turn, meaning you are in the most likely position to never even have to play!
To clarify:
Going first - 1 in 6 chance of a raw egg to the face, 5 in 6 chance of a hard egg to the face. (16.66% raw egg to the face / 83.33% hard egg to the face) = 100% some egg on face
...
Going last - 1 in 6 chance the raw egg still remains, 5 in 6 chance of not having to play at all. (16.66% raw egg to the face / 83.33% no egg to the face) = 83.33% clean face
EDIT: this is based on there being 6 people and 6 eggs, because I forgot that there were actually only 4 people. Point still remains, going last is best assuming you want no egg on your face at all.
In fact, going last would be the best choice, as there would be just a 1 in 6 chance for it even reaching your turn, meaning you are in the most likely position to never even have to play!
To clarify:
Going first - 1 in 6 chance of a raw egg to the face, 5 in 6 chance of a hard egg to the face. (16.66% raw egg to the face / 83.33% hard egg to the face) = 100% some egg on face
...
Going last - 1 in 6 chance the raw egg still remains, 5 in 6 chance of not having to play at all. (16.66% raw egg to the face / 83.33% no egg to the face) = 83.33% clean face
EDIT: this is based on there being 6 people and 6 eggs, because I forgot that there were actually only 4 people. Point still remains, going last is best assuming you want no egg on your face at all.
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Caporegime
Op is right. Kenai explained it best.
What's amusing is the likes of spoffle have completely glossed over the point the op was trying to make about Holly being wrong about having a better chance of avoiding a raw egg over her head by going first. This isn't true.
The whole point of this was what Holly said, at the start of the game.
Going last isn't best, or worst, it's the same.
What's amusing is the likes of spoffle have completely glossed over the point the op was trying to make about Holly being wrong about having a better chance of avoiding a raw egg over her head by going first. This isn't true.
The whole point of this was what Holly said, at the start of the game.
Going last isn't best, or worst, it's the same.
check my edit. same chance of getting a bad egg yes, but 5 in 6 chance of not even having to play. no egg is better than any egg right?
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Man of Honour
Lidl's finest...
Caporegime
Your edit was 5 minutes after I corrected you
. But yeah, I'd take "raw egg or no egg" over "raw egg or boiled egg".Your edit was 5 minutes after I corrected you
Hey now, you can't correct someone who wasn't wrong. My edit just added clarification. I didn't change my original post.
Man of Honour
That's easy - some beans