Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[Yucca]

I'm predominantly looking at stocks that are still 40%+ down on 6 months and for whatever variety of reasons haven't seen the random upsurge of others.

Lloyds for the same reason as HSBC; I think it's cheap. I'm a customer and they've maintained good customer service during the period and have a strong domestic brand. I can't claim to know nearly enough about the banking sector or the impact COVID's had, it's just a gut feeling.

Whitbread I mentioned a few pages back. Has risen since it's lowest in March but not much (in comparison to other stocks), basically still flatlining @ 55% down from end of Feb. They've raised a share issue, particularly to invest in Germany (growing from 1 to 30 hotels), and I can see domestic budget travel being a strong pull for many in the next 6-12 months, particularly over the winter, plus an increase in corporate travel as we get back to normality.

Agree with looking for stocks that are still down. Not easy though as so many have gone up. And most that are still down are down due to good reason ie Airlines/Cruises/Pubs.

Lloyds - Fair enough. Lloyds would be my second choice too after HSBC.


Whitbread: I (think) I have a good understanding of their business as iv worked in hospitality for many years at management level. Just playing devils advocate here: Costa was their biggest growth brand which they have sold. Domestic budget travel being a strong pull - Why? You mean more UK based holidays and hotel use? I assume you are talking about Premier Inn use here? I wouldnt call them budget... Id say middle of the road. And all hotels/restaurants will be slashing prices/doing silly deals to get bums on seats. So margins will be even smaller than normal. Plus they are still competing againt Air bnb. And with hotels.com, booking.com and the like its much easlier now for customers to find better/cheaper hotels than just go to the trusted brand website like years ago. None of that has changed with Covid. Their other brands: brewers fayre & beefeater will have the same serious problems JDW will have.

I dont think corporate travel will go back to normal any time soon. If at all. Businesses will be looking at cutting costs and this is an obvious/easy one to cut.

Welcome your further thoughts.

 

[Yucca]

Yeah I'd agree with this. I too also used to play when I was ~14, so many moons ago. A couple of old friends still dabble though. You can play socially distanced, though, and I'm sure it's been a good lockdown hobby for many, with half of it (if not more) being the building and painting rather than playing.

But PE ratio is 38.5 atm, market cap of £2.55bn, way overpriced imo. They rely heavily on the high street to get new customers and that in itself is dying, particularly for their demographic.

From memory... Hanging around the store and chatting was half the fun. Play socially distancing, hmm maybe.

Yes I agree building and painting is 50% of it. Most customers buy more models when half the ones they own are not finished. Id guess during lockdown thats shifted to 'Let me get my stuff finally painted' which equals no sales.

Cant imagine anyone playing the game during lockdown as most families usually have the one Warhammer fan. Its not usually shared with siblings, especially girls. You have to find like minded 40k fanboys to play with... Who can be found in store...which are closed.

Edit: Think once they have announced a quater or twos sales results and shares have tumbled it may be a time to buy.

 

[4Play]

From memory... Hanging around the store and chatting was half the fun. Play socially distancing, hmm maybe.

Yes I agree building and painting is 50% of it. Most customers buy more models when half the ones they own are not finished. Id guess during lockdown thats shifted to 'Let me get my stuff finally painted' which equals no sales.

Cant imagine anyone playing the game during lockdown as most families usually have the one Warhammer fan. Its not usually shared with siblings, especially girls. You have to find like minded 40k fanboys to play with... Who can be found in store...which are closed.

They have just increased prices on pretty much everything they offer by 10% and simultaneously announced the latest addition of the game which will be released in the next 3 months with a whole new range of miniature's. This will be lapped up by the long term enthusiast like me........... Not advice but I don't see it dropping anytime soon.

 

[Yucca]

They have just increased prices on pretty much everything they offer by 10% and simultaneously announced the latest addition of the game which will be released in the next 3 months with a whole new range of miniature's. This will be lapped up by the long term enthusiast like me........... Not advice but I don't see it dropping anytime soon.

Will you buy online or wait till stores open? Will you still feel comfortable hanging around the store having a chat when you have to socially distance, limited customers in store and people waiting outside, and people with masks on?

Will you rush to buy this new game/figures at 10% inflated prices even though you may not be able to play with them much any time soon? Or will you wait a while? Or maybe buy slow and steady rather than usual impulse buys?

Genuine questions, not having a dig.

 

[Yucca]

US open soon - Predictions folks? Further drops, flat or back up?!

 

[chorse]

Looks risk on to me!

 

[Tweek_1984]

US open soon - Predictions folks? Further drops, flat or back up?!

I think EOD will be up 1.5-2%. It's not uncommon to see that after a large drop. The interesting market will be next week.

 

[Russinating]

Whitbread: I (think) I have a good understanding of their business as iv worked in hospitality for many years at management level. Just playing devils advocate here: Costa was their biggest growth brand which they have sold. Domestic budget travel being a strong pull - Why? You mean more UK based holidays and hotel use? I assume you are talking about Premier Inn use here? I wouldnt call them budget... Id say middle of the road. And all hotels/restaurants will be slashing prices/doing silly deals to get bums on seats. So margins will be even smaller than normal. Plus they are still competing againt Air bnb. And with hotels.com, booking.com and the like its much easlier now for customers to find better/cheaper hotels than just go to the trusted brand website like years ago. None of that has changed with Covid. Their other brands: brewers fayre & beefeater will have the same serious problems JDW will have.

I dont think corporate travel will go back to normal any time soon. If at all. Businesses will be looking at cutting costs and this is an obvious/easy one to cut.

Welcome your further thoughts.

I may be wrong for sure.

Yeah, more UK domestic holidays, so yeah, Premier Inn. Are they not budget? I've only ever stayed there for £45-75 a night, the latter in the centre of London, so I've always seen them as cheap, easy and you 'know what you're going to get'. Perfect for when you're actually spending very little time at the hotel.

Whilst everywhere will be slashing prices, size matters for economies of scale. They already have contactless check-ins at all the ones I've been to, and I can imagine the brand confidence in staying somewhere like Premier Inn vs a random Airbnb being hugely valuable for those more concerned about COVID.

I do think corporate travel will return. Some of it can't be replaced; all the classic 'on the road' jobs like sales, auditing, managing multiple sites etc. And people will be absolutely craving events when they restart. All exhibitions and events are postponed, not cancelled, and every industry needs them to survive. Despite the adequacies of video calls, you can't beat a proper face-to-face meeting for starting and building relationships. I mean, we've been able to call each other on the phone for decades and I'm sure there were people back then claiming that'd kill off the need to travel.

 

[Yucca]

I may be wrong for sure.

Yeah, more UK domestic holidays, so yeah, Premier Inn. Are they not budget? I've only ever stayed there for £45-75 a night, the latter in the centre of London, so I've always seen them as cheap, easy and you 'know what you're going to get'. Perfect for when you're actually spending very little time at the hotel.

Whilst everywhere will be slashing prices, size matters for economies of scale. They already have contactless check-ins at all the ones I've been to, and I can imagine the brand confidence in staying somewhere like Premier Inn vs a random Airbnb being hugely valuable for those more concerned about COVID.

I do think corporate travel will return. Some of it can't be replaced; all the classic 'on the road' jobs like sales, auditing, managing multiple sites etc. And people will be absolutely craving events when they restart. All exhibitions and events are postponed, not cancelled, and every industry needs them to survive. Despite the adequacies of video calls, you can't beat a proper face-to-face meeting for starting and building relationships. I mean, we've been able to call each other on the phone for decades and I'm sure there were people back then claiming that'd kill off the need to travel.

Iv paid circa £100 for Premier Inn in the past which I personlly consider middle of the road. Seems im not as good as you for shopping around for hotel rooms. Or im cheap lol.

Economies of scale - Dont agree so much with this as independants can be more flexible than corporates in times of difficulty. Personally I belive independants are better at managing a decline and corporates are better at growth. Brand confidence/contactless - very good point!

Corporate travel - Will come back but very slowly and maybe volumes will be much less. Remember covid is not over so things could get a lot worse before they get better yet. Yes, some is defo needed and required but I think a lot will reasses and avoid where possible. Both for safety and to save money. Short/medium term at least.

 

[Russinating]

Iv paid circa £100 for Premier Inn in the past which I personlly consider middle of the road. Seems im not as good as you for shopping around for hotel rooms. Or im cheap lol.

Economies of scale - Dont agree so much with this as independants can be more flexible than corporates in times of difficulty. Personally I belive independants are better at managing a decline and corporates are better at growth. Brand confidence/contactless - very good point!

Corporate travel - Will come back but very slowly and maybe volumes will be much less. Remember covid is not over so things could get a lot worse before they get better yet. Yes, some is defo needed and required but I think a lot will reasses and avoid where possible. Both for safety and to save money. Short/medium term at least.

I think all of that's fair and certainly not disagreeable. I'm not hoping that any of these stocks return to previous or ATH levels, which is why I'm pretty much only considering stocks that are down 40%+. And, as noted here, the markets are so far removed at the moment that it'll be interesting to see if stocks ever drop below the lowest point they hit in mid March, even if things did get worse.

 

[Yucca]

The saying 'buy the gossip, sell the news' applies to up coming good news.

If there is upcoming bad news then should it be 'sell the gossip, buy the news' if its not as bad as expected?!

 

[4Play]

Will you buy online or wait till stores open? Will you still feel comfortable hanging around the store having a chat when you have to socially distance, limited customers in store and people waiting outside, and people with masks on?

Will you rush to buy this new game/figures at 10% inflated prices even though you may not be able to play with them much any time soon? Or will you wait a while? Or maybe buy slow and steady rather than usual impulse buys?

Genuine questions, not having a dig.

Valid points but the vast majority of people don't play or buy in store. They order online (sometimes not even directly through GW) as it's cheaper and easier. From my experience again the majority play from the comfort of their own home.

Mark my words when the preorder goes live for the new stuff that has been announced it will sell out the same day in it's entirety. People don't buy slow a d steady, it's called plastic crack for a reason .

The company has done such a huge U turn (reflected in it's share price over the last 6-7 years) because they now truly know who their customers are. I'm not that big a fan in fact fairly casual compared to most but it's been incredible to witness the company evolve during that time.

I could be wrong but I don't think it will go anywhere. Time will tell.

 

[Skeptic]

Overall unchanged for the week, perhaps ever so slightly up but very little to write home about. The broader market is very interesting right now: I honestly feel it's the most manipulated market I've known.

What has changed from yesterday and today? Nothing other than it has been decided that day needs to be 'up'.

Anyway, safe weekend all.

 

[HangTime]

Premier Inn. Are they not budget? I've only ever stayed there for £45-75 a night, the latter in the centre of London, so I've always seen them as cheap, easy and you 'know what you're going to get'. Perfect for when you're actually spending very little time at the hotel.

I like Premier Inn, the rooms are usually a decent standard compared to other chains. Usually my first port of call if we are staying overnight as a family. I wouldn't call them budget, you can get decent deals in sales or on Sunday nights etc but a lot of the time you are paying around the £69 mark. Central London often considerably more.

Travelodge on the other hand are genuine budget, both in terms of price and the lack of consistency between hotels. I regularly (well until March!) stay in London Travelodges and usually pay under £50, sometimes a bit more if it's a date in high demand. Over time you get to know which ones to avoid and also which ones away from the centre are convenient (e.g. Greenwich High Road is very cheap - under £30 sometimes - yet only 1min walk from Greenwich station, so you can literally be in the City within 20mins of leaving your room).

 

[wesimmo]

US open soon - Predictions folks? Further drops, flat or back up?!

Short term spike, then Corona will take hold again with another drop is my prediction.

 

[Yucca]

Second wave in China is terrible bad news for the market surly?

 

[Skeptic]

There's just a whole heap of news, but whether the market agrees that it's bad is another question! Spiking of cases in USA, a breakout in Beijing, 150b stimulus from BoE to support jobs lost, the R value increasing in the UK - all of which would unsettle the market in normal circumstances.

Greggs back on Wednesday! The more stimulus should be good for gold prices. Copper is on the up. I feel well positioned at the moment, but will look out for some bargains over the next week or two.

 

[Regy53]

I have not traded the stock market but forex commodity. Since march just traded gold which has been very fruitful a big learning curve too. Heres hoping for further increases

 

[Skeptic]

What a day so far

I’m a buyer at some of these levels, just need a few more % drop in some good co’s. Best of luck of there this week folks...

 

[Skeptic]

Primark queues bode well for GRG!