Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Soldato
Joined
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Tesla up at $441, so the great sell off didn't last long. Their hype just isn't subsiding, particularly with "Battery Day" coming up.
Yep, looking okay atm but would like to see it break the high before feeling more optimistic.
Anyone else saw the LUCID launch? Apparently the first high-end model has a range of 540 miles and a charge rate of 20miles per minute. Good first attempt.
I'm interested in what battery day covers, from both the technology perspective and observe the element of hype/marketing
 
Soldato
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Anyone else saw the LUCID launch?

Yup. Looks excellent- on paper. The EV world is littered with upstarts that never got anywhere, though (Faraday Future, and you can add Karma to the list now). These companies are incredibly optimistic about their products. Lucid are making some big, big claims about the level of performance and luxury they're going to deliver, but it's going to be a very tall order. I'm just skeptical. Only Tesla have managed volume production from scratch in the west, and Lucid are aiming to surpass their vehicles in just about every regard. Just seems over ambitious to me.
 
Soldato
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Just seems over ambitious to me.

Nothing wrong with ambition, as long as you've got the stamina, determination, knowledge, staff and capital to pull it off.

Anyone trying to catch Tesla soon is going to be in for a rough ride, they are pretty much on goal to beat Q3 deliveries, and by then end of Q4 hit their 500k target for 2020, which is crazy given what 2020 has been so far. Two massive factories coming online in 2021, and the expansion of the China factory, and a goal to ship 800k-1m vehicles in 2021, by 2025/6 they will be shifting upwards of 4m vehicles per year, worldwide with potentially over 12 different vehicles on offer. It is no wonder VW's CEO has such respect for their achievements so far, and that is just the car part of the business.
 
Caporegime
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Tesla up at $441, so the great sell off didn't last long. Their hype just isn't subsiding, particularly with "Battery Day" coming up.

Yeah I didn't personally think it would last long.

To many people (even in here) wanting to get in. Shows any crash is only going to be temporary
 
Soldato
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Nothing wrong with ambition, as long as you've got the stamina, determination, knowledge, staff and capital to pull it off.

How many of those do Lucid have? They haven't made a car yet, yet their first offering is going to top the likes of the Porsche Taycan? This stuff is causing the world's biggest and best car companies major headaches, yet upstart companies are proposing Bugatti-levels of performance with Maybach luxury at the price of a BMW. Something's got to give.
 
Soldato
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Yeah I didn't personally think it would last long.

To many people (even in here) wanting to get in. Shows any crash is only going to be temporary
The best buying opportunity might be if the overall markets take a hit. Tesla has recovered much better than other tech so far, since the recent sharp drop. But atm the nassie is looking weak.
 
Soldato
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All, it has been a pleasure playing with you. I’m going to be a new dad in Feb, so I’ve cashed all but one investment (GDWN). I’ve also bought a house, which, owing to a mixup with my partner’s property (down valued by 20k), means that I’m due to pay most of the £150k deposit needed for the new one.

My stats overall were OK. Probably walking away with £+10k over the last few years which, while better than the bank, was not worth the research and time spent. Really it has been fun, to a degree, but (all jokes aside re: Greggs!) I just can’t be arsed with it. Listening to the constant news flow and how ‘bleak’ things are out there, I feel lucky to even have a job at this point. I’m not a doomsday prepper, but I think the markets are going to destroy people over the next few years. Worthless companies being pumped up; the world and its dog in index trackers; bankruptcy and so on.

I hope you all make good returns. I will still be around, and may get back in the game at some point, but at the moment the world is too crazy - and my future too unpredictable - to feel comfortable with anything more risky.

My best investment over the last few years? Vanguard Life Strat 80/20. Make of that what you will. :D

Riding into the sunset with a steak bake and iced donut, what a guy! :D
 
Soldato
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How many of those do Lucid have? They haven't made a car yet, yet their first offering is going to top the likes of the Porsche Taycan? This stuff is causing the world's biggest and best car companies major headaches, yet upstart companies are proposing Bugatti-levels of performance with Maybach luxury at the price of a BMW. Something's got to give.

Idd, but maybe some of them will end up getting it right. Do you think that all this time the consumer has been getting the best price for vehicles in the current model, or have the prices ended up out of control?

The great thing about competition, and new ways of thinking and doing things provides the opportunity for decreasing price, improvements in quality or both. What happens if/when we end up with a breakthrough technology in batteries and the price and weight of a pack fall to levels previously unheard of, all the extra money saved can go into other things, like luxury seats, fancy lights, better motors, the list goes on.
Look at how much simpler a BEV is compared to ICE, many time fewer moving parts, or parts in general all of these have supply chains with margins added, all of which go into making vehicles more expensive to manufacture and therefore less margin unless the price increases.

Did anyone read the update BP put out recently with regards to their view of oil demand going forward? Makes for an interesting read, and reflects what impact disruption can have on a market place that is seen as unmovable by some people.
 
Soldato
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Maybe some traditional car companies may fold but I think the big ones will continue. It's still early days at the moment. Sometimes companies that bring new tech don't even survive themselves as others end up doing it better. I think Tesla will do well tho, they already have the mindshare sorted, similar to Apple. Some of the other start-ups will likely disappear.

Personally, I'd still rather buy a Japanese car or something German :) when full EV available. Competition will catch up.
 
Soldato
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You'll soon be seeing stuff like the ID3, I3, e-golf, Zoe, Leaf, at the top of the electric car sales charts in Europe. I doubt Tesla is going to be a major player over here once demand for electric cars really kicks off.

Bear in mind that the best selling ICE cars in Europe are the VW Golf, Polo, and the Renault Clio.
 
Soldato
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That is the hope, at least it needs be to, if not for the sake or someones bank balance but to ensure we are making sustainable choices and moving forward with change.
Definitely. Toyota are working on solid state battery technology so lots of R&D being done by those with deep pockets. To me it seems to be mostly about that, then the motors.
 
Soldato
Joined
30 Aug 2006
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8,312
Hi guys

This is not exacting "trading the stockmarket" but hoping for some thoughts on picking funds for my pension. I just have a DC scheme with my employer through Aviva so I'm investing into various funds which invest in equities.

Currently my investments broadly are:
10% UK equities
10% UK small equities
10% European equities
10% US equities
10% "World" equities
5% Japanese equities
5% Property
40% emerging market equities

I'm 30 so a long way from retirement so my broad thinking has been to invest in high risk/reward funds (hence a high proportion in emerging markets), whilst also picking funds based on the lowest management fees (all of the funds carry a 0.2 - 0.3% fee except for the UK small equities fund which is 0.9%).

Does this seem like a sensible strategy?

My worry is I have limited GBP exposure at a time where GBP is historically low, however the only "fix" to that seems to be increase my investment in UK small equities which carries a high management fee, or invest in non-equities (which I'm not sure is a great strategy for my age).

Any thoughts appreciated.
 
Soldato
Joined
6 Oct 2009
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3,991
Location
London
Hi guys

This is not exacting "trading the stockmarket" but hoping for some thoughts on picking funds for my pension. I just have a DC scheme with my employer through Aviva so I'm investing into various funds which invest in equities.

Currently my investments broadly are:
10% UK equities
10% UK small equities
10% European equities
10% US equities
10% "World" equities
5% Japanese equities
5% Property
40% emerging market equities

I'm 30 so a long way from retirement so my broad thinking has been to invest in high risk/reward funds (hence a high proportion in emerging markets), whilst also picking funds based on the lowest management fees (all of the funds carry a 0.2 - 0.3% fee except for the UK small equities fund which is 0.9%).

Does this seem like a sensible strategy?

My worry is I have limited GBP exposure at a time where GBP is historically low, however the only "fix" to that seems to be increase my investment in UK small equities which carries a high management fee, or invest in non-equities (which I'm not sure is a great strategy for my age).

Any thoughts appreciated.

My pension is:

30% Liontrust Sustainable Future Global Growth
30% JPM Emerging Markets
20% Baillie Gifford American
20% Liontrust Sustainable Future UK Growth

I don't care about currency risk because this is so long term. Sure, if GBP drops it means my foreign investments are up, and my income is now worth less (current contributions don't go far). If GBP goes up, it means my investments are down but now my income goes further (new contributions are able to buy more than they would before).

I will begin caring about currency risk once I'm close to retirement and know my expenses will have to be paid in GBP at rates at that specific time.
 
Soldato
Joined
13 Jul 2004
Posts
20,079
Location
Stanley Hotel, Colorado
My worry is I have limited GBP exposure at a time where GBP is historically low, however the only "fix" to that seems to be increase my investment in UK small equities which carries a high management fee, or invest in non-equities (which I'm not sure is a great strategy for my age).

FT250 is a higher growth index then FT100 if you think UK will grow. Its more risk but generally it makes the FTSE look like savings returns. The two on a graph side by side dated since this threads start 2009:
 
Soldato
Joined
6 Oct 2009
Posts
3,991
Location
London
FT250 is a higher growth index then FT100 if you think UK will grow. Its more risk but generally it makes the FTSE look like savings returns. The two on a graph side by side dated since this threads start 2009:

FTSE100 returns a lot more through dividends, although with that taken into account, FTSE250 still has had better historical returns. FTSE100 are old companies that have no place to grow really.
 

JC

JC

Soldato
Joined
10 Dec 2003
Posts
5,774
Location
Surrey
Hi guys
...
Currently my investments broadly are:
10% UK equities
10% UK small equities
10% European equities
10% US equities
10% "World" equities
5% Japanese equities
5% Property
40% emerging market equities
...

Does this seem like a sensible strategy?

Any thoughts appreciated.

Depending upon your goals here, as you say you're looking long term and willing to take some risk for reward.

Based on a distribution of global markets, you are significantly overweight on UK (20 vs about 4%) and underweight on US (10 vs about 60%).

Tilting your distribution is absolutely fine if you intend to do that, as you mention with emerging markets. But you may be mindful that you could be di-worsifying rather than diversifying, by missing exposure to US, which has recently (but may not continue) to grow, all compared to just holding an index tracker like vwrp + some extra vfem to suit your appetite.
 
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