AMD Zen 3 (5000 Series), rumored 17% IPC gain.

GregI · 30 Sep 2020 at 09:58

These are retail/shelf dates by 1usmus.

Zen 3 - 20th October (5800X/5900X)
Navi 2 - 15-20th November

https://twitter.com/1usmus/status/1311196944811921410

NDA papers have already been distributed and it's to coincide with V2 1.1.0.0

Destination · 30 Sep 2020 at 09:58

The 'tuning' you speak of seem to be making it worse in each res.
Bit weird

Zeeflyboy · 30 Sep 2020 at 10:01

@alec, honest question - if that is the case then why does my 3900X beat the 3800X cpu scores I can find substantially?

Just for example, here https://www.ashesofthesingularity.c...k-result/4eec827a-2120-4e38-a2b9-08bce834cf81

Same settings I get an average CPU score of around 130fps vs the 105.4 of the 3800X here.

clv101 · 30 Sep 2020 at 10:15

GregI said:
These are retail/shelf dates by 1usmus.

Zen 3 - 20th October (5800X/5900X)
Navi 2 - 15-20th November

https://twitter.com/1usmus/status/1311196944811921410

NDA papers have already been distributed and it's to coincide with V2 1.1.0.0

Only the 5800X and 5900X? I'm probably more interested in a ~£200 6 core than an >£300 part with a few more cores.

Journey · 30 Sep 2020 at 10:25

clv101 said:
Only the 5800X and 5900X? I'm probably more interested in a ~£200 6 core than an >£300 part with a few more cores.

Yes but then the people who are waiting will just go, "ah **** it I'll buy the 5800X instead of the 5600X cause I'm not waiting until January."

I'd dare to say that their 7nm TSMC contract is running maxed out, and if they are getting good yields selling higher margin parts makes more sense.

Zeeflyboy · 30 Sep 2020 at 10:27

With the consoles releasing at the same time with 8 core 16 thread CPUs, I guess lower margin 6 core CPUs probably aren’t their priority for now?

As above I think with new CPUs, new GPUs and the consoles they must be having to choose carefully which products take up their 7nm capacity.

Richdog · 30 Sep 2020 at 11:44

clv101 said:
Only the 5800X and 5900X? I'm probably more interested in a ~£200 6 core than an >£300 part with a few more cores.

I guess they don't want release lower budget options first that would interfere with higher-end sales? They will want people to buy the meaty ones then the budget options will come later when the initial fever has died down.

clv101 · 30 Sep 2020 at 11:48

What happened with the 2000 and 3000 launch?

Edit, for 3000, the 6, 8 and 12 core parts were all released 7th July 19. The 2600 and 2700 also came together on 19th April 18.

Ryzen's history doesn't suggest lower options are held back.

Journey · 30 Sep 2020 at 11:52

clv101 said:
What happened with the 2000 and 3000 launch?

3000's was 3600+(x), 3700X, 3800X (low stock) and 3900X (average stock), 3950X came a few months later. 2000 series was dumped all at once.

kevman · 30 Sep 2020 at 12:00

clv101 said:
Only the 5800X and 5900X? I'm probably more interested in a ~£200 6 core than an >£300 part with a few more cores.

Also keen to know if these 6 core parts will hit 5 Ghz also otherwise it will be tough up against 10600k for gaming.

Richdog · 30 Sep 2020 at 12:02

clv101 said:
What happened with the 2000 and 3000 launch?

Edit, for 3000, the 6, 8 and 12 core parts were all released 7th July 19. The 2600 and 2700 also came together on 19th April 18.

Ryzen's history doesn't suggest lower options are held back.

AMD are in a much different and much stronger position now to when the Zen2 was released so they may want to capitalise on this new surge in hype and reputation.

Journey · 30 Sep 2020 at 12:03

kevman said:
Also keen to know if these 6 core parts will hit 5 Ghz also otherwise it will be tough up against 10600k for gaming.

I'm not sure why that would hold true if the rumoured IPC increases are to be believed.

Zeeflyboy · 30 Sep 2020 at 12:30

clv101 said:
What happened with the 2000 and 3000 launch?

Edit, for 3000, the 6, 8 and 12 core parts were all released 7th July 19. The 2600 and 2700 also came together on 19th April 18.

Ryzen's history doesn't suggest lower options are held back.

The last launches weren't coming at a time when they coincided with new GPU launch and high volume Console APUs all contributing to taking up capacity on the 7nm nodes. They also have their 4000 series APUs on 7nm as well!

It certainly wouldn't shock me that as a result they stick to selling the stuff they can make a higher margin on at first then backfill the product stack as capacity frees up or more comes on line.

alec · 30 Sep 2020 at 12:32

Zeeflyboy said:
The last launches weren't coming at a time when they coincided with new GPU launch

Actually RX5700xt was launched on same day as Zen 2, both on 7nm. Because 07.07 of course

Zeeflyboy · 30 Sep 2020 at 12:37

alec said:
Actually RX5700xt was launched on same day as Zen 2, both on 7nm. Because 07.07 of course

good point, but I did say "new GPU launch and high volume Console APUs" as in all 3 at once

LePhuronn · 30 Sep 2020 at 12:40

Zeeflyboy said:
It certainly wouldn't shock me that as a result they stick to selling the stuff they can make a higher margin on at first then backfill the product stack as capacity frees up or more comes on line.

TSMC have 4 different 7nm processes, all design compatible with each other. It's not known which process are used for which product, but I really doubt AMD would drop everything they're making onto just one of them. People keep saying "capacity problems" but there's never been anything to support that actually being the case. Since picking up Apple's share, AMD have over a quarter of TSMC's entire 7nm production capacity.

Zeeflyboy · 30 Sep 2020 at 12:45

LePhuronn said:
TSMC have 4 different 7nm processes, all design compatible with each other. It's not known which process are used for which product, but I really doubt AMD would drop everything they're making onto just one of them. People keep saying "capacity problems" but there's never been anything to support that actually being the case. Since picking up Apple's share, AMD have over a quarter of TSMC's entire 7nm production capacity.

I agree, but no "capacity problems" does not equal infinite supply. If you can sell every 3800/3900 you can make within a given time frame (ie the launch window) why would you choose to use that capacity to make lower margin parts on the same node instead unless the yields were bad enough that you couldn't turn all the chips into the higher end products? Simple answer is that you wouldn't from a purely financial standpoint... once the launch surge is over and demand normalises, that is when you would then choose to flesh out the product stack further with less profitable parts but a broader/different market appeal.

It doesn't make sense to tool up expensive production capacity for the demand anomaly that is a launch window, so supply will always be constrained during such times but that doesn't equal capacity problems.

b0rn2sk8 · 30 Sep 2020 at 13:09

That and if it’s anything like what we saw on the 3080 launch, people are going nuts for new product at the moment. Nvidia could have shipped 10x the number they did and they would still sold out and have huge back orders.

I’m full expecting all of the sought after SKUs to sell out completely for some time.

LePhuronn · 30 Sep 2020 at 13:21

Zeeflyboy said:
I agree, but no "capacity problems" does not equal infinite supply. If you can sell every 3800/3900 you can make within a given time frame (ie the launch window) why would you choose to use that capacity to make lower margin parts on the same node instead unless the yields were bad enough that you couldn't turn all the chips into the higher end products? Simple answer is that you wouldn't from a purely financial standpoint... once the launch surge is over and demand normalises, that is when you would then choose to flesh out the product stack further with less profitable parts but a broader/different market appeal.

It doesn't make sense to tool up expensive production capacity for the demand anomaly that is a launch window, so supply will always be constrained during such times but that doesn't equal capacity problems.

Oh I entirely agree, production capacity does indeed need priority for the most viable products first. The real picture though I think is more granular than most people are claiming. For instance, if Zen 3 chiplets are made using N7P and the consoles are made with N7+ then they're not going to interfere with each other so there's little risk of meeting console demand impacting Ryzen demand, which is one thing people are suggesting; consoles will stunt Ryzen release.

Also, and specifically talking about Ryzen here, it's not a case that AMD choose to make chiplets with a specified core count. The chiplet is always 8 cores and then get binned to determine which CPUs get made. It's entirely possible that once EPYC has been fully allocated (because server always comes first), the leftovers for Ryzen might see a massive bias towards 6 core chiplets. In such a case AMD would be able to make more 6 and 12 core SKUs than 8 core SKUs, so the launch day focus would beon the 5600X and 5900X, with 5700X as a low volume, token release. Conversely, the bulk of the binning may see 8 cores, so the 5700X will be front and centre, maybe with the 5900X taking a back seat in favour of the 5600X.

It'll all come down to the binning.

marcus_667 · 30 Sep 2020 at 14:12

Will wait for 5950x