What's going to happen to the car market?

ezekial · 19 Oct 2020 at 06:42

Looking at the higher end of the E92 M3 market for the last 12 months or so and what you could get for ~18.5k before Covid is now 20-21k.

MrKnifey · 19 Oct 2020 at 06:59

Practically doubled my money on a sale yesterday so i'd say prices are still high yes

EdGey · 19 Oct 2020 at 09:13

Prices seem consistently high to me too. To the point where some cars I was looking at before all of this are now slightly out of my budget...

Banzai_Joe · 19 Oct 2020 at 11:33

Yeah, i was looking to change mine in August when my PCP was up. But ended up paying the balance off so i know i actually own it. Was looking at the new version of mine and its more expensive, so they can go swivel.
A lot of deals are marketing cons (as usual in the car sales trade). But if they dont start properly reducing prices to reflect the current times then dealerships will close down.
I'll now wait till mid 2021 when more hybrid/electric cars are on the market anyway and then see how the land lies so to speak.

Scania · 19 Oct 2020 at 13:13

djbenjo said:
I decided flipping a car or two would be something to help as something to give me some focus, a few quid and after a bit of thought I came up with the following conclusion;

There are already a large number out of work, and with government support for business fading out, more job losses to come. This meaning many people losing company cars or being unable to keep up with car payments also ending up without a car. Living in an area with mostly low income people will be looking for something as cheap as possible to get them around.

Obviously low profits at this end of the market, but is it a good idea to buy two or three cars to target this type of situation, I'm talking £500 or sub? I just feel like there is already demand and its going to be increasing.

Or have I got this totally wrong?

A mate of mine has been doing this recently, buying sub £400 sheds at a local auction advertising them straight away @ £995 and happily letting them go for £800, he’s doubling his money, the punter thinks he’s knocked him down by nearly £200 and bar his time at the auction he’s doing nothing else to the cars.

I’m tempted to give his method a try myself...

Chris1712 · 19 Oct 2020 at 13:53

Much like the housing market, the government have been throwing money in (from the top) and it's skewed everything. Bounce back loans and business grants are behind the dearth of supercars/sports cars on sale at the moment. There were 30 odd 4c's for sale at the start of lockdown, typically 5-8 now. Similar figures for everything else, McLaren / Rarri / Porsche etc.

jigger · 19 Oct 2020 at 17:24

What people ask and what a car is worth are two different numbers.

I’m running an ageing Volvo. At the start of the policy book price was 3500-4100~ adjusting for condition. Two weeks ago a driver backed into it smashing the near side light and scuffed the bumper. My insurance wrote the car off for a sub £1k repair. Clearly the book price is now way off.

Mr Oblong · 19 Oct 2020 at 23:26

jigger said:
What people ask and what a car is worth are two different numbers.

I’m running an ageing Volvo. At the start of the policy book price was 3500-4100~ adjusting for condition. Two weeks ago a driver backed into it smashing the near side light and scuffed the bumper. My insurance wrote the car off for a sub £1k repair. Clearly the book price is now way off.

With older cars the market can be very strange, more condition and clique based.

jigger · 20 Oct 2020 at 00:23

Mr Oblong said:
With older cars the market can be very strange, more condition and clique based.

In the space of just over 10 months it’s insurance book price must have roughly halved for them to consider it a total loss with such minor damage. That is a pretty extreme swing in value.

Scania · 20 Oct 2020 at 08:19

jigger said:
What people ask and what a car is worth are two different numbers.

I’m running an ageing Volvo. At the start of the policy book price was 3500-4100~ adjusting for condition. Two weeks ago a driver backed into it smashing the near side light and scuffed the bumper. My insurance wrote the car off for a sub £1k repair. Clearly the book price is now way off.

I hope you bought it back off them and did a DIY repair....

[TW]Fox · 20 Oct 2020 at 08:38

jigger said:
In the space of just over 10 months it’s insurance book price must have roughly halved for them to consider it a total loss with such minor damage. That is a pretty extreme swing in value.

What was the model, age and mileage?

Mr Oblong · 20 Oct 2020 at 10:59

jigger said:
In the space of just over 10 months it’s insurance book price must have roughly halved for them to consider it a total loss with such minor damage. That is a pretty extreme swing in value.

True, I wouldn't expect that.

Are we definitely talking book value, not an owner's estimate? Insurance companies seem to let you put in any insured value when quoting but it counts for little in the event of a claim.

jamoor · 20 Oct 2020 at 13:56

Personally I think the value of money has fallen rather than supply demand

Mr Oblong · 20 Oct 2020 at 22:46

jamoor said:
Personally I think the value of money has fallen rather than supply demand

It looks that way based on all the extra liquidity squirted into the economy.

SSO · 18 Nov 2020 at 16:19

Chris1712 said:
https://karenable.com/supercar-market-update-q1-2020/

Makes a lot of good points, I do worry about Aston Martin - they don't have deep pockets like McLaren to weather this.

I believe Aston / Stroll has managed to raise enough funding to keep them going at least for the next couple of years. latest update on Aston: https://karenable.com/aston-martins-mercedes-deal-q3-2020-results/

Chris1712 · 18 Nov 2020 at 16:32

SSO said:
I believe Aston / Stroll has managed to raise enough funding to keep them going at least for the next couple of years. latest update on Aston: https://karenable.com/aston-martins-mercedes-deal-q3-2020-results/

Welcome to the forum :cool:

. Love your blog, read it every update.

Banzai_Joe · 18 Nov 2020 at 17:08

Wonder how the new rule that petrol and diesels now have to be phased out by 2030 will affect things.
10 years earlier that the previous timescale.

adam cool dude · 18 Nov 2020 at 18:08

Banzai_Joe said:
Wonder how the new rule that petrol and diesels now have to be phased out by 2030 will affect things.
10 years earlier that the previous timescale.

It is still 20 years before you will see a massive shift. Sad news is it is more than likely the final iteration for M, AMG and RS cars that we will see.

SSO · 18 Nov 2020 at 19:42

Chris1712 said:
Welcome to the forum . Love your blog, read it every update.

Much appreciated. Glad you like it.

SSO · 18 Nov 2020 at 19:45

Mr Oblong said:
With older cars the market can be very strange, more condition and clique based.

Brand plays a major role on long term values. Most normal cars depreciate to zero over about a 20 year period, supercars tend to depreciate for 10 years. Hold value for the next 5-10 and then start going back up.