Worried about the future of GPU

[PrincessFrosty]

Except both consoles on TSMC 7nm APUs are rumoured to be in short supply and both consoles have completely sold out all preorders everywhere and in the UK new stock isn't expected until 19th Nov which is release day for the UK.

We won't know for sure until this stuff actually releases but I'd be willing to bet based on the rumours right now and the lack of physical availability that we'll see AMD GPUs out of stock and up for pre orders on day 1 and queues. Especially if they're competitive with the 3000 series. Hopefully we wont have to wait too long to find out.

 

[jonneymendoza]

Except both consoles on TSMC 7nm APUs are rumoured to be in short supply and both consoles have completely sold out all preorders everywhere and in the UK new stock isn't expected until 19th Nov which is release day for the UK.

We won't know for sure until this stuff actually releases but I'd be willing to bet based on the rumours right now and the lack of physical availability that we'll see AMD GPUs out of stock and up for pre orders on day 1 and queues. Especially if they're competitive with the 3000 series. Hopefully we wont have to wait too long to find out.

Which is the point of the thread.

Its worrying

 

[Shaolin Chicken]

I think op makes some good points, can't see the situation improving until well into the new year.
We'll just have to stick with our older gpu's.

 

[Lithium]

Except both consoles on TSMC 7nm APUs are rumoured to be in short supply and both consoles have completely sold out all preorders everywhere and in the UK new stock isn't expected until 19th Nov which is release day for the UK.

And demand for both consoles is going to be off the scale, unlike any previous console launch. In my humble opinion.

 

[Sasahara]

AMD might fulfil demand, but only if the demand is in line with their market share of 20%.
If demand comes close to level Nvidia's market level, it will be just as bad.

 

[rexehuk]

I been suffering anxiety and depression for months cause of coronavirus, now I know I should have been worrying about this instead.

Can this year not get any worse.

Maybe it's just me but your choice of words sound interesting... Most people are worrying about:

- Having a job
- Feeding their family
- Losing loved ones
- Feeling isolated and alone

But here we're worried about GPU yields and their apparent affect on your life?

Will not having a new GPU for 3 months severely cripple your ability to survive?

 

[Participant]

According to AMD, they will have more than enough stock and even quoted that they will not have the same problem as nVidia.

Source?

 

[Rroff]

It's straightforward. I have used a poisson distribution to estimate yields.
You would additionally need following parameters to run few permutations:
Tsmc defect density 0.06-0.09 per cm2
Samsung 0.14-0.2

Edit: Additionally I have assumed 30% edge defect rate for nv chip size and 25% for amd (these are chips at the wafer circumference that have to be discarded)

Samsung 8nm shouldn't be worse than 0.14 - it is improved on 10nm and that is sub 0.2. I don't know if nVidia is using multiple products on a wafer to reduce edge losses, etc. - all the wafers I've seen pictures of lately have been all the same product.

 

[mjones1]

I been suffering anxiety and depression for months cause of coronavirus, now I know I should have been worrying about this instead.

Can this year not get any worse.

Maybe it's just me but your choice of words sound interesting... Most people are worrying about:

- Having a job
- Feeding their family
- Losing loved ones
- Feeling isolated and alone

But here we're worried about GPU yields and their apparent affect on your life?

Will not having a new GPU for 3 months severely cripple your ability to survive?

Exactly my thoughts, people on the forum have been talking like they will die soon if they do not get a gpu in a week or two.
I would be delighted if not having my £700+ GPU was the biggest stress in my life.

 

[Nablaoperator]

Samsung 8nm shouldn't be worse than 0.14 - it is improved on 10nm and that is sub 0.2. I don't know if nVidia is using multiple products on a wafer to reduce edge losses, etc. - all the wafers I've seen pictures of lately have been all the same product.

These are broadly the ranges i have for nvidia

before factoring edge defects:
28% for 0.2
42% for 0.14

after edge defects
20% for 0.2
29% for 0.14

 

[Tiny_D]

I am actually worried now about future GPU's

in terms of stock, there is a mixture of reasons why stock goes out in seconds:

not much supply being made

pandemic so people staying home most so more time to play games

The resale market. people desperate to get a gpu so bad that they are willing to spend almost double the retail price

Bots being used to purchase all the stock in relation to the previous point

so sad. gpu was never this demanding

Back in the day you may have missed out on the first wee or two launch of a new gpu but after a couple of weeks to a month it was widely available well at least available to the point that once it went in stock, you had a couple of hours to make your mind up and grab it
this is so sad man

i fear it will happen with BIG NAVI

Go take a walk in the rain or just be outside a while, if this is one of the biggest worries in your life? Life's good mate

 

[RBImGuy]

I am actually worried now about future GPU's

in terms of stock, there is a mixture of reasons why stock goes out in seconds:

not much supply being made

pandemic so people staying home most so more time to play games

The resale market. people desperate to get a gpu so bad that they are willing to spend almost double the retail price

Bots being used to purchase all the stock in relation to the previous point

so sad. gpu was never this demanding

Back in the day you may have missed out on the first wee or two launch of a new gpu but after a couple of weeks to a month it was widely available well at least available to the point that once it went in stock, you had a couple of hours to make your mind up and grab it
this is so sad man

i fear it will happen with BIG NAVI

Tsmc is a better node than samsungs 8nm broken one.
graphics cards are bigger which means less chips produce by the same amount of wafers vs the cpu that are smaller.
and we have a change in performance and price now which drives demand as people can finally upgrade to big navis
8 hours to go

 

[Kaapstad]

I am actually worried now about future GPU's

in terms of stock, there is a mixture of reasons why stock goes out in seconds:

not much supply being made

pandemic so people staying home most so more time to play games

The resale market. people desperate to get a gpu so bad that they are willing to spend almost double the retail price

Bots being used to purchase all the stock in relation to the previous point

so sad. gpu was never this demanding

Back in the day you may have missed out on the first wee or two launch of a new gpu but after a couple of weeks to a month it was widely available well at least available to the point that once it went in stock, you had a couple of hours to make your mind up and grab it
this is so sad man

i fear it will happen with BIG NAVI

Nothing to worry about.

If there is a big demand for a product production capacity will catch up.

Not being able to get the latest "anything" for a couple of weeks/months is not the end of the world.

Having said that I did stock up yesterday on booze for Christmas just in case, there are some things that can't wait.

 

[nashathedog]

According to AMD, they will have more than enough stock and even quoted that they will not have the same problem as nVidia.

Where did you hear that, WCCF tech?

 

[andybird123]

According to AMD, they will have more than enough stock and even quoted that they will not have the same problem as nVidia.

I think some people are reading too much in to the actual comment that was made. One of the website tech journo's suggested this was going to be a "paper launch like Nvidia's" and the AMD rep said its not going to be a paper launch... technically Nvidia's wasn't a paper launch either as they did sell some product on launch day, so AMD's comment just means there IS going to be SOME availability on launch day, it in no way actually said that there will be "plenty of stock for anyone who wants one" which is what people are assuming he meant.

I hope there is plenty of stock, but just based on the AMD quote, you can't assume that.

 

[Nablaoperator]

That's why dont go out recommending PC gaming to every one i lay my eyes on..
I make extra effort to convey the superiority of consoles to assuage console fanboys and tell them how bad pc gaming is
If you follow a hobby, you dont want the scene crowded

If there is a big demand for a product production capacity will catch up.

Dont think that's applicable.. i dont feel the factories are running at full capacity.due to social distancing/quarantining requirements
and folks would tend to procrastinate capex due to demand volatility
for all they know the additional capacity might be gathering dust in the long term once the virus is contained
then there are logistical issues at a global level

 

[snips86x]

Source?

Where did you hear that, WCCF tech?

I didn't, maybe you did?

I think some people are reading too much in to the actual comment that was made. One of the website tech journo's suggested this was going to be a "paper launch like Nvidia's" and the AMD rep said its not going to be a paper launch... technically Nvidia's wasn't a paper launch either as they did sell some product on launch day, so AMD's comment just means there IS going to be SOME availability on launch day, it in no way actually said that there will be "plenty of stock for anyone who wants one" which is what people are assuming he meant.

I hope there is plenty of stock, but just based on the AMD quote, you can't assume that.

Admittedly, you'll probably have to take this with a pinch of salt, but for AMD Marketing to make a comment like this, one would suggest they're going to be more than prepared for the release with plentiful stock. They know it'll come back to them if they can't meet demand.

https://www.techradar.com/news/amd-...problems-that-befell-nvidias-rtx-3080-release

https://twitter.com/AzorFrank/status/1309134647410991107

 

[Kaapstad]

Dont think that's applicable.. i dont feel the factories are running at full capacity.due to social distancing/quarantining requirements
and folks would tend to procrastinate capex due to demand volatility
for all they know the additional capacity might be gathering dust in the long term once the virus is contained
then there are logistical issues at a global level

The biggest problem for factories ATM is the exact opposite where consumers are not buying the products they produce and they have over capacity.

There are situations like the Ampere card launch that has more to do with NVidia greed and not using 7nm TSMC for the gaming cards when they had the chance, they screwed it up themselves. I am sure when AMD launch their new GPUs there will be temporary shortages like you get with a lot of tech launches but it won't be on the same scale as Ampere is.

The other thing to remember is the clean rooms that produce the chips and the PPE people have to wear in them, this is massive overkill for social distancing so no problem there.

 

[Nablaoperator]

The other thing to remember is the clean rooms that produce the chips and the PPE people have to wear in them, this is massive overkill for social distancing so no problem there.

Nope.. wasnt talking about fabs, dont believe Taiwan (from AMDs perspective atleast) has virus problems anyways and those fabs dont seem to be people intensive
More on the lines of board integrators..
heres a video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-6W7dMEUOY