What's going to happen to the car market?

[ShiWarrior]

so what do you think will happen this year folks ?


with the announcement of banning new ICE cars from 2030 (now 9 years away)
and current COVID Tier 4 restrictions looking like its staying a while

 

[Gibbo]

I suspect more special stuff will continue going up.

Shall be selling Abarth soon so be interesting what it brings, paid 11k 18 months ago and Toyota offered 9.5k for it which was a positive surprise but gonna advertise it for 13k and see what I get as market seems pretty strong for them.

My S2000 which I paid 14k for less than a year ago similar age/miles cars now seem to be around 18k so the values on those seem to be up for the lower mileage nicer examples.

Happy new year everyone !

 

[[TW]Fox]

Why would anyone buy your Abarth for 13k? At that point you may as well get a new one surely.

 

[Gibbo]

Why would anyone buy your Abarth for 13k? At that point you may as well get a new one surely.

It’s a Performance Pack car which are rarer and have been commanding stronger money recently, until it’s sold who knows what it will bring but if someone is happy to pay 13k then I am also happy whatever I get I’ll be losing little to nothing on it anyway.

 

[Chris1712]

I get the feeling the boom will continue now, once lockdown or it’s variants are properly eased all the winners of covid will want to start spending and I’m not convinced it will be on holidays.

I think the McLaren dip has been and gone sadly, and the F430 also seems to be creeping up. Fortunately it seems 4C have held / gone up aswell, WBAC for mine has gone up about 15% since March.

 

[Gibbo]

I get the feeling the boom will continue now, once lockdown or it’s variants are properly eased all the winners of covid will want to start spending and I’m not convinced it will be on holidays.

I think the McLaren dip has been and gone sadly, and the F430 also seems to be creeping up. Fortunately it seems 4C have held / gone up aswell, WBAC for mine has gone up about 15% since March.

Just went on WBAC the offer was £9570 now will see if they improve offer over coming weeks like they normally do.

Shall advertise it probably end of Jan/Feb giving me 6-8 weeks to move it before taking delivery of Yaris as don’t want six cars lol.

 

[AWPC]

Do not think anyone needs to worry about ICE going away by 2030 that will never happen by then politicians know its an election losing policy they just announce it now to keep princess nut nuts happy it seems

 

[ShiWarrior]

Do not think anyone needs to worry about ICE going away by 2030 that will never happen by then politicians know its an election losing policy they just announce it now to keep princess nut nuts happy it seems

no, they simply "wont go away" its only NEW cars from then on it will be EV only, petrol cars will still be around for another 10 years or so as dailies

 

[Chris1712]

Do not think anyone needs to worry about ICE going away by 2030 that will never happen by then politicians know its an election losing policy they just announce it now to keep princess nut nuts happy it seems

I will honestly be amazed if anyone even WANTS an ICE car in 2030, enthusiasts excluded. It’s like saying in 2010 ‘dumbphones are banned from 2020’. So what?

 

[paradigm]

I will honestly be amazed if anyone even WANTS an ICE car in 2030, enthusiasts excluded. It’s like saying in 2010 ‘dumbphones are banned from 2020’. So what?

I’m not sure that analogy quite works, it’s hardly as if the technology (aside from drivetrain) is any different in an ICE car. They are both similarly as “smart”.

How’s about in 2030 you can only buy an iPhone that can be charged via solar and takes 22 hours to charge completely, but also the battery only lasts you half of the current use time. You can charge it faster if you take it to the motorway services, but it’ll cost you significantly more than at home and you’ll also have to queue for it.

 

[Fusion]

Leasing/PCP will continue to dominate the market. Interest rates aren't going anywhere, so people will continue to splurge. Unemployment will rise, but not by enough to break the back of the market. Hard to see prices dropping much when credit is so cheap and available.

 

[Chris1712]

I’m not sure that analogy quite works, it’s hardly as if the technology (aside from drivetrain) is any different in an ICE car. They are both similarly as “smart”.

How’s about in 2030 you can only buy an iPhone that can be charged via solar and takes 22 hours to charge completely, but also the battery only lasts you half of the current use time. You can charge it faster if you take it to the motorway services, but it’ll cost you significantly more than at home and you’ll also have to queue for it.

You’re right, there will be absolutely no technology development in the next decade.

 

[paradigm]

You’re right, there will be absolutely no technology development in the next decade.

I didn’t say there wouldn’t be, but that same technological evolution will also be applicable to ICE/hybrid propulsion vehicles as well.

So it’s still not a “dumb” vs “smart” analogy.

 

[SSO]

I get the feeling the boom will continue now, once lockdown or it’s variants are properly eased all the winners of covid will want to start spending and I’m not convinced it will be on holidays.

I think the McLaren dip has been and gone sadly, and the F430 also seems to be creeping up. Fortunately it seems 4C have held / gone up aswell, WBAC for mine has gone up about 15% since March.

I just finished an article on the current state of the market. McLaren 675LTs do seem to be going up and 4Cs are holding remarkably well. A lot of the really high end stuff is not moving though. 2 Koenigseggs were no sales in the recent round of auctions and Pagani Huayra's are being offered around privately at under list.

 

[Chris1712]

I just finished an article on the current state of the market. McLaren 675LTs do seem to be going up and 4Cs are holding remarkably well. A lot of the really high end stuff is not moving though. 2 Koenigseggs were no sales in the recent round of auctions and Pagani Huayra's are being offered around privately at under list.

Absolutely criminal to read that under 2000 miles is ‘very high mileage’ for a GT. I thought the whole point of Fords proper selection process was to ensure they were used and enjoyed, not garage queens.

Hyper car market sounds a different thing entirely, maybe that level of wealth is busy finding better opportunities during all this turmoil? Or perhaps they just don’t want to show their cards yet, if you’ve sat on a Pagani for a few years anyway why risk the market when it’s not buoyant.

 

[SSO]

Absolutely criminal to read that under 2000 miles is ‘very high mileage’ for a GT. I thought the whole point of Fords proper selection process was to ensure they were used and enjoyed, not garage queens.

Hyper car market sounds a different thing entirely, maybe that level of wealth is busy finding better opportunities during all this turmoil? Or perhaps they just don’t want to show their cards yet, if you’ve sat on a Pagani for a few years anyway why risk the market when it’s not buoyant.

Issue with the hypercar market is that it has gotten saturated. Used to be you had a new model every 8-10 years. Now its dropped to every other year and build numbers have gone up. Pagani hasn't helped themselves by making numerous last, final, limited editions of the same model for years.

On the Ford GT, the selection process turned out to be a complete joke and Ford should be really embarrassed at the whole situation. The number of Ford GT that are hitting the market as soon as the two year hold period expires with less than 1000 miles is stunning. Even the guy who designed the GT is trying to sell his.

 

[SSO]

And you've probably seen that Dr Andy Palmer has left Aston Martin, after a shocking share price since the (premature) IPO last year.

Hopefully these two great brands will come through this strong and fitter for the long term.

It was more Aston left Palmer than Palmer left Aston. Palmer actually found out when a reporter from eh FT called him asking for a comment on his departure.

One year later, Aston this has plenty of major issues. I just did an article on them. Here are a few of the key parts:

Speaking of sales, I got an email this week from an Aston Martin dealership in the US. They are offering 3 years free servicing with the purchase of a DBX. I checked the dealer’s website, and they currently have nine new DBX’s listed for sale and one used DBX. Based on past experience, if they are showing 9 DBXs for sale, they probably have twice as many in stock. 3 years free service isn’t something you offer on a new model that’s flying off the showroom floors. In the Q 1 2021 earnings call, Aston indicated that they would no longer be reporting retail sales. Eliminating this key piece of information gives Aston the ability to immediately revert back to bad old habits and start stuffing dealerships with cars if they are trying to manage earnings and hit certain targets to prop up the share price. I am surprised the financial analysts who follow Aston haven’t raised this as a major credibility issue given the history. It’s the financial equivalent of putting a recovering alcoholic in charge of guarding the wine cellar. It might be ok but there’s a big risk it doesn’t end well.

Unpacking the DBX saga a bit more, there are a few things that are hard to square. The new manufacturing facility in St Athan opened in December 2019 with 600 employees hired over the course of 2020. In March 2021, Aston made 1/3rd of the work force (200 employees) redundant which is not surprising as the factory is running at less than half capacity. In addition, the depth and breadth of options on the DBX is being cut back with most carbon fibre being eliminated. These are not the actions you normally see taken to support a massive success and the changes in options go directly against Moer’s statement on driving ASPs. In addition, Aston Martin had taken £18.8m in grants from the Welsh Government for job creation, skills training and research and development. When the grant was given, full employment at St Athan’s was expected to reach 750. Needless to say, the Welsh Government has to be less than happy with the current situation.

Moving onto the Valkyrie. If Aston Martin finally delivers a customer Valkyrie before the end of the year, it will have taken Aston longer to develop this car than it took Henry VIII to go through 4 wives or the Allies to defeat Germany in WW2. Both Moers & Stroll are on record as having promised the first deliveries will happen before the end of 2021, though Aston Martin also said the same for deliveries last year. From what I have gathered from a few different sources, that is likely to happen. These sources also indicated that given the massive problems Aston has had trying to get the electronics to work in the road cars, it’s now the track cars that are being prioritized as they will be built without the sophisticated electronics & hybrid system. Apparently, Aston has had major challenges getting the Valkyrie road car mules to run for more than 20 minutes at a time with the longest run being around 45 minutes so far. On a more positive note, I have heard that the Valkyrie is by far the quickest car (road or track) a few of the drivers have ever experienced. How many owners will be able to drive the track cars anywhere near the limit without the sophisticated electronics systems will be interesting to see.

In terms of the track Valkyries, Aston has outsourced the development & production of the car to Mulitmatic (Multimatic also built the latest Ford GT) with instructions to get it done as quickly (and if the rumors about Stroll’s instructions are true, as cheaply) as possible. Multimatic will also likely be doing the final development and most of the production on the road Valkyries with final assembly planned at Aston Martin’s Graydon facility. Continual failed crash tests by Multimatic have not helped speed development along, and its believed they are struggling. Last I heard, neither Valkyrie variant had passed crash tests yet. In addition, Aston has only bought 30-40 of the Valkyrie’s Cosworth V12s to date so the actual number of cars that can be produced right now is fairly limited. Needless to say, the relationship between Aston Martin & Red Bull (way back in the middle of the last decade, the Valkyrie was originally conceived as a joint project with Red Bull’s Adrian Newey as the chief designer) has turned bitter and toxic. Red Bull has not been involved at all since the end of last year. How this is going to end is anyone’s guess but I’m sure there will be plenty of finger pointing. Neither Stoll nor Moers have any “ownership” of the project and seem to view it as an unwelcome stepchild that they just can’t wait to get out of the house. Just to make it even more interesting, apparently there is no love lost between Moers and Multimatic. This might have something to do with Moers’ experience in his prior job on the almost equally delayed Mercedes AMG One, which Multimatic was also working on.

 

[ShiWarrior]

so what do you think will happen next year , what with the the new updated cars coming out, like the facelifted Focus due next year etc

would prices of second hand cars (say from 2011) come down to reasonable levels?

 

[Gibbo]

so what do you think will happen next year , what with the the new updated cars coming out, like the facelifted Focus due next year etc

would prices of second hand cars (say from 2011) come down to reasonable levels?

Whats good about the new updated cars? Are they not getting more boring, speed limiters, more electric only and July the worse year since 1956 for new car sales, in the short term it seems used market is only going to go up more, Winter shall be interesting but it seems the nice and the fun stuff is now on an upward trend that could never reverse as the future is speed limiters and milk floats.

 

[cuke2u]

July figures were what they are because of all the semiconductor shortages and manufacturers having to pare back their production. Hence the abnormal rise in the prices of pre-owned.