Today's mass shooting in the US

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68 mil in this tiny country :eek:

The UK has a very high population density, but it doesn't quite make the top 10 even if you screen out the very small countries/distinct areas such as Monaco, Macau, Hong Kong, etc. England by itself would - it comes in around 7th or 8th.

Population is a problem. In the last ~100 years humanity has been winning so hard we don't know how to handle it.
 
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While he was president, Barack Obama tried to increase firearms restrictions in the USA. One of the things he did was to use an executive order to have the CDC investigate the use of firearms in the USA. The investigation found the opposite of what gun control advocates wanted it to find, so it was almost completely ignored.

Most pertinant to your question is that the lowest estimate of how often a gun is used defensively in the USA (~500,000) is almost double the number of times a gun is used in a violent crime (~300,000). That's the lowest estimate.

The situation is far less clear than the deliberate, consistent and extreme bias in reporting makes it out to be.

From the CDC - https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/firearms/fastfact.html

What is defensive gun use? How often does it occur?

Although definitions of defensive gun use vary, it is generally defined as the use of a firearm to protect and defend one’s self, family, others, and/or property against crime or victimization.

Estimates of defensive gun use vary depending on the questions asked, populations studied, timeframe, and other factors related to the design of studies. The report Priorities for Research to Reduce the Threat of Firearm-Related Violence indicates a range of 60,000 to 2.5 million defensive gun uses each year.

The "lowest estimate" figure you quote is from a study by The Institute of Medicine and the National Research Council, and that was submitted to the CDC.

The quite frankly astonishing range in these reports (The Institute of Medicine and the National Research Council estimates between 500,000 and 3 million cases of defensive gun usage per year) would suggest the "science" is maybe not as resilient as you'd hope. For example, the 1995 Kleck-Gertz survey suggested that the number of DGU respondents who reported shooting their assailant was over 200,000, which at the time was over twice the number of those killed or treated for gunshots in emergency departments.

I've read a few of the studies over the years, and several have had low response numbers, then adjusted up to match the US population. They are also typically completely reliant on self-reporting - often with no requirement to justify it was actually defensive gun use, rather than pulling a gun because someone wanted to win an argument.

Case in point - Mark McCloskey, the lawyer who waved his rifle at BLM protestors that appear to be walking past his house, said on Twitter "An angry mob marched to destroy my home and kill my family, I took a stand to defend them". Considering there's a good amount of footage from incident that doesn't appear to support his claim, that's a questionable "defensive gun use" statistic.

Harvard has some interesting findings from their studies of the various studies - https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firearms-research/gun-threats-and-self-defense-gun-use-2/
Rand has a good write up about the difficulty in studying this - https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy/analysis/essays/defensive-gun-use.html
Or how about NPR, just because there's a fun point that about as many people say they've use a gun defensively as there are people who say they've been abducted by aliens :D - https://www.npr.org/2018/04/13/6021...ople-use-guns-in-self-defense?t=1623250632387
 
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The report costs US$38, which is why I haven't read it or linked to it. There are only three sentences about defensive firearm use in the page you link to. One is a definition of what it is, one is a link to a page where you can buy the report and one is a statement that estimates of how often it happens vary.


The quite frankly astonishing range in these reports (The Institute of Medicine and the National Research Council estimates between 500,000 and 3 million cases of defensive gun usage per year) would suggest the "science" is maybe not as resilient as you'd hope.

As I said before, the situation is far less clear than it's made out to be. There's scope for more/better designed/better managed studies, but the fact that it's such a contentious topic makes that unlikely to happen.

For example, the 1995 Kleck-Gertz survey suggested that the number of DGU respondents who reported shooting their assailant was over 200,000, which at the time was over twice the number of those killed or treated for gunshots in emergency departments.

Not impossible. A lot of people miss when shooting under pressure and wrongly report a hit. Also, how many of the people who were listed as having reported shooting their assailant intended to report shooting, not specifically hitting their assailant?

But it does indicate that the situation is far less clear than it's usually made out to be.

I've read a few of the studies over the years, and several have had low response numbers, then adjusted up to match the US population. They are also typically completely reliant on self-reporting - often with no requirement to justify it was actually defensive gun use, rather than pulling a gun because someone wanted to win an argument.

Case in point - Mark McCloskey, the lawyer who waved his rifle at BLM protestors that appear to be walking past his house, said on Twitter "An angry mob marched to destroy my home and kill my family, I took a stand to defend them". Considering there's a good amount of footage from incident that doesn't appear to support his claim, that's a questionable "defensive gun use" statistic.

I'd say it was OK. During a dedicated and widespread attempt to use violence to gain more power in the country, followers of an ideology of racism and authoritarianism that openly embraces the use of violence to achieve political power formed a mob that was moving towards his house. He was right to consider that a threat to his life, especially if he was of the "race" that the ideology targets as their chosen scapegoat group whose lives are at best worthless. I would have done the same. A mob of people who explicitly, passionately and proudly proclaim that your life doesn't matter because you're not the "right race" and that you're to blame for everything because you're the "bad race" and who openly embrace violence as a tool for gaining power are approaching your home during a time in which that ideology is organising widespread violence across the country. Why would you not consider that a serious threat?

Harvard has some interesting findings from their studies of the various studies - https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firearms-research/gun-threats-and-self-defense-gun-use-2/
Rand has a good write up about the difficulty in studying this - https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy/analysis/essays/defensive-gun-use.html
Or how about NPR, just because there's a fun point that about as many people say they've use a gun defensively as there are people who say they've been abducted by aliens :D - https://www.npr.org/2018/04/13/6021...ople-use-guns-in-self-defense?t=1623250632387

Thank you for provided more evidence of the bias routinely applied to the topic:

1) Your statement is an exaggeration of the statement made by the article you link to, which was quoting (perhaps accurately or perhaps not - maybe they exaggerated too) another article which is a politicial opinion piece behind a paywall. Nothing is provided to support the statement.
2) It's comparing numbers from different studies done in different ways by different people at different times for different reasons. Studies which have very varied results. It could be as skewed as scouring all the available studies and "studies" (the jokey polls on some threads in these forums are technically studies), picking the highest one for alien abductions, picking the lowest one for using a gun in self defence, seeing that the latter is 50% higher than the former and saying that the numbers are similar. "similar" can cover quite a wide variety of comparisons. Also, why exclude defence of others?
3) You wouldn't do that for a topic you wanted taken seriously. All sorts of things could be described the same way by picking the right studies and "studies" for the desired results. Especially if there isn't even any need to state which studies or what the numbers were.

EDIT: That article from Rand is a good write-up.
 
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Soldato
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From the CDC - https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/firearms/fastfact.html

I've read a few of the studies over the years, and several have had low response numbers, then adjusted up to match the US population. They are also typically completely reliant on self-reporting - often with no requirement to justify it was actually defensive gun use, rather than pulling a gun because someone wanted to win an argument.

Case in point - Mark McCloskey, the lawyer who waved his rifle at BLM protestors that appear to be walking past his house, said on Twitter "An angry mob marched to destroy my home and kill my family, I took a stand to defend them". Considering there's a good amount of footage from incident that doesn't appear to support his claim, that's a questionable "defensive gun use" statistic.


All the liberal media didn't show the blm tearing down a private gate.

So not as clear cut as you would like.
If they did that in a gated community in FL.
The police would be called and they would be arrested for trespass.
 
Caporegime
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The UK has a very high population density, but it doesn't quite make the top 10 even if you screen out the very small countries/distinct areas such as Monaco, Macau, Hong Kong, etc. England by itself would - it comes in around 7th or 8th.

Population is a problem. In the last ~100 years humanity has been winning so hard we don't know how to handle it.

We do know how to handle it, people just aren't willing to.
 
Soldato
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All the liberal media didn't show the blm tearing down a private gate.

So not as clear cut as you would like.
If they did that in a gated community in FL.
The police would be called and they would be arrested for trespass.

I thought you were going to say shot? You'll get arrested everywhere on earth for breaking down a gate.
 
Soldato
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They can if they feel threatened.
If you have a problem with the law in FL. Don't go :)

The blm never got arrested when they broke down the gate.
So again. Not as clear cut as you would like.

You are directing your comments at the wrong person. It just surprised me out of my skim-reading as i assumed you'd be shot, not reported to the police.
 
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As I said before, the situation is far less clear than it's made out to be. There's scope for more/better designed/better managed studies, but the fact that it's such a contentious topic makes that unlikely to happen.

So we agree there are issues with figures from these studies? Cool.


Not impossible. A lot of people miss when shooting under pressure and wrongly report a hit. Also, how many of the people who were listed as having reported shooting their assailant intended to report shooting, not specifically hitting their assailant?

But it does indicate that the situation is far less clear than it's usually made out to be.

So we still agree there's issues with the figures from the studies? It's weird - we agree, but you seem put out about that.


I'd say it was OK. During a dedicated and widespread attempt to use violence to gain more power in the country, followers of an ideology of racism and authoritarianism that openly embraces the use of violence to achieve political power formed a mob that was moving towards his house. He was right to consider that a threat to his life, especially if he was of the "race" that the ideology targets as their chosen scapegoat group whose lives are at best worthless. I would have done the same. A mob of people who explicitly, passionately and proudly proclaim that your life doesn't matter because you're not the "right race" and that you're to blame for everything because you're the "bad race" and who openly embrace violence as a tool for gaining power are approaching your home during a time in which that ideology is organising widespread violence across the country. Why would you not consider that a serious threat?

38 neighbours of the McCloskeys described it as a "peaceful protest". 9 protestors were charged with misdemeanor trespass (and I believe were acquitted/charges dropped) - both McCloskeys were charged with felony unlawful use of a weapon, were indicted by a grand jury and have court pending for November 2021. I'm already going to concede your inevitable point that there's some clear politicing in those cases, but still, so far all the criminals are on the "waving guns around" side of the sidewalk.

Also - it's been a while since I've watched Law and Order, but I seem to remember felonies are worse than misdemeanors, and misdemeanors aren't capital crimes. Yet. I mean, who knows, maybe this comment will age badly :D

Let me highlight another thing as well. Just really try and put aside your political feelings, how you feel about BLM, all of it - I know it's going to be tough, but seriously, just for 30 seconds.

Now imagine this is how some of those BLM protestors feel about police shootings of unarmed black people.

...especially if he was of the "race" that the ideology targets as their chosen scapegoat group whose lives are at best worthless. I would have done the same. A mob of people who explicitly, passionately and proudly proclaim that your life doesn't matter because you're not the "right race" and that you're to blame for everything because you're the "bad race" and who openly embrace violence as a tool for gaining power are approaching your home during a time in which that ideology is organising widespread violence across the country

I can already feel you leaping for the keyboard to rage at me about how it's different, but come on man - just let it sink in. Don't fly into a fury of "well, statistically..." and just imagine you're one black man, who feels utterly targeted and at risk because of his race. You've managed it for a white guy that lives in a mansion in a gated community, who literally nothing bad happened to - you can do it for a black guy as well. I believe in you.

Empathy and understanding are great things, but they need to go both ways.

Thank you for provided more evidence of the bias routinely applied to the topic:

You're welcome

1) Your statement is an exaggeration of the statement made by the article you link to, which was quoting (perhaps accurately or perhaps not - maybe they exaggerated too) another article which is a politicial opinion piece behind a paywall. Nothing is provided to support the statement.
2) It's comparing numbers from different studies done in different ways by different people at different times for different reasons. Studies which have very varied results. It could be as skewed as scouring all the available studies and "studies" (the jokey polls on some threads in these forums are technically studies), picking the highest one for alien abductions, picking the lowest one for using a gun in self defence, seeing that the latter is 50% higher than the former and saying that the numbers are similar. "similar" can cover quite a wide variety of comparisons. Also, why exclude defence of others?
3) You wouldn't do that for a topic you wanted taken seriously. All sorts of things could be described the same way by picking the right studies and "studies" for the desired results. Especially if there isn't even any need to state which studies or what the numbers were.

If only there was some absurd way of showing that you couldn't rely on self-reported studies, like maybe throwing in a bit about alien abductions. No, too crazy, it would never work.

I'm getting a sense that you're not happy we agree that these studies are flawed. You seem to be getting cross about it. It's almost like you think these insanely high numbers of DGUs based on tiny sample sizes, suspect questioning, unclear terminology and self-reporting are in fact correct. But that can't be right, surely? We were so on the same page earlier. What changed man?

EDIT: That article from Rand is a good write-up.

I bet it absolutely killed you to write that :D
 
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So we agree there are issues with figures from these studies? Cool.

I've been saying from the start that it's not clear cut. You disagreed, so on the evidence so far I'm thinking that you have your own numbers that you like.

So we still agree there's issues with the figures from the studies? It's weird - we agree, but you seem put out about that.

I'm not. Does that bother you?

38 neighbours of the McCloskeys described it as a "peaceful protest". 9 protestors were charged with misdemeanor trespass (and I believe were acquitted/charges dropped) - both McCloskeys were charged with felony unlawful use of a weapon, were indicted by a grand jury and have court pending for November 2021. I'm already going to concede your inevitable point that there's some clear politicing in those cases, but still, so far all the criminals are on the "waving guns around" side of the sidewalk.

Also - it's been a while since I've watched Law and Order, but I seem to remember felonies are worse than misdemeanors, and misdemeanors aren't capital crimes. Yet. I mean, who knows, maybe this comment will age badly :D

I'm overwhelmed by the transcendent wit of your response and my awe at your genius leaves me too stunned to see if you were making any point.

Let me highlight another thing as well. Just really try and put aside your political feelings, how you feel about BLM, all of it - I know it's going to be tough, but seriously, just for 30 seconds.

Now imagine this is how some of those BLM protestors feel about police shootings of unarmed black people.



I can already feel you leaping for the keyboard to rage at me about how it's different, but come on man - just let it sink in. Don't fly into a fury of "well, statistically..." and just imagine you're one black man, who feels utterly targeted and at risk because of his race. You've managed it for a white guy that lives in a mansion in a gated community, who literally nothing bad happened to - you can do it for a black guy as well. I believe in you.

Empathy and understanding are great things, but they need to go both ways.

I understand how people are led by what they're told. There's a multitude of examples of people gaining power and money from pushing a message.
I understand how some people are racist.

Not supporting it doesn't mean not understanding it.

Your comparison might have been true in some parts of the USA 50 years ago, maybe. Definitely 100 years ago. But the idea that all the police today are publically promoting white superiority and some of them are publically calling for mass murder of "black" people is just plain wrong. Even if some people feel that it's true because of their conditioning.

Here's an example that comes to mind:

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/15/...er-attack-show-the-power-of-false-memory.html


I bet it absolutely killed you to write that :D

No, because it was true and fair. I'm surprised you cited it.
 
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I see they caught the second person in the Austin TX shooting.

He was taken into custody while enrolled in a summer school class :eek:

17-year-old Jeremiah Roshaun Leland James Tabb will be tried as an adult.
 
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Most pertinant to your question is that the lowest estimate of how often a gun is used defensively in the USA (~500,000) is almost double the number of times a gun is used in a violent crime (~300,000). That's the lowest estimate.

That doesn't make much sense.

Oh wait, it does:
 
Man of Honour
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You can understand why the Police aren't happy, I can see more Police shootings as a result of this. I can't understand how anyone can see this as a good move. :confused:

Yeah likely it will risk that the police get more jumpy and results in increased deaths or serious injuries of innocent people.
 
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Wyoming has been a permissive open carry state for years and it seems to be okay. In my experience of having gone hunting there some years ago, everyone seemed very polite, unsurprisingly.

Interestingly enough, only 10% of gun deaths there are due to homicide with the rest being suicides.
 
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Mags: Rroff, there's never an armchair that you're not an enthusiast of when it comes to guns or military or shooting or shooting with guns when militray or aircraft or call signals or air craft with call signals but no military and, perhaps you get the point. Do you never get bored of being Alan Partridge?

Rroff: I’d just like to fly a helicopter all around Norfolk. You know, swoop down over a field. Scare a donkey so that it falls into a river. Hover over one of those annoying families that go on holidays on bikes. And shout at them “get out of the area!” and watch them panic!

Mags: Tidy.
 
Man of Honour
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Does seem a step backwards.

It seems like a step forwards to people who support it. People who are allowed to own guns in Texas are already allowed to carry main weapon guns anywhere. This law extends that to sidearm guns. Is that a huge difference? I'm not sure.

You can understand why the Police aren't happy, I can see more Police shootings as a result of this.

Very likely, but in Texas almost everyone shot will not be "black" so their lives don't matter.

I can't understand how anyone can see this as a good move. :confused:

It's very simple to understand:

1) People who think that civilians have a right to bear arms see removing an obstacle to civilians bearing arms as being a good move on philosophical grounds.
2) People who think that armed civilians can defend themselves and others see removing an obstacle to civilians bearing arms being a good move on practical grounds.

You don't have to agree with either, but they're both simple positions to understand.

Wyoming has been a permissive open carry state for years and it seems to be okay. In my experience of having gone hunting there some years ago, everyone seemed very polite, unsurprisingly.

Interestingly enough, only 10% of gun deaths there are due to homicide with the rest being suicides.

Damn...Wyoming is already way more extreme than Texas when it comes to gun laws. Or, more accurately, lack of them. Not only are state laws regarding gun ownership along the lines of "anyone can carry any gun (other than full auto) open and/or concealed as long as they're not a convicted violent felon", Wyoming state law very explicitly forbids any local government from imposing any restrictions, explicitly states that they will not enforce federal gun restriction laws and goes as far as they can in preventing federal authorities enforcing federal gun restrictions.

A Wyoming resident can literally walk into a shop, buy a handgun and a rifle and ammunition with and walk out again with the loaded rifle slung over their shoulder and the loaded handgun concealed in an easy access holster under their clothing. Then stroll down the street. No delay. No registration. The concealed carry would require a Wyoming concealed permit, which must be issued without question to any Wyoming resident who wants one and who doesn't have a violent felony conviction. If the guns have "made in Wyoming" on them, no problem. Even if the carrying is in breach of national USA law, no Wyoming authority is allowed to enforce that law.

So Wyoming must be an active war zone, people getting shot every 5 minutes!

https://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/wyoming/

in 2019 [..] the state violent crime rate was lower than the national violent crime rate average by 42.71% and the state property crime rate was lower than the national property crime rate average by 25.54%.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/murder-rate-by-state

North Dakota, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, and Wyoming all have murder rates that are under one murder per 100,000 residents.

That's even lower than the UK! Only just (UK is 1.1 per 100,000 residents), but that's a hell of a low level of homicide. And that's all homicides, not just shooting homicides.


Looks like reality is more complex than simply a question of what the gun laws are.
 
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