AMD Navi 23 ‘NVIDIA Killer’ GPU Rumored to Support Hardware Ray Tracing, Coming Next Year

[Nablaoperator]

Just a back of the envelope analysis regarding the pricing of RX6900..

Following are the assumptions:
Die size: 505 mm^2
Wafer size: 70.686 mm^2 (300 mm dia)
Potential die count: 140
Partial dies/no dies at corners: 30%
Available dies: 98 (edit: rounded upto 100)
Defective (lasered) dies: 25%

Expected output per wafer:
Full dies: 75
Lasered dies: 25
per wafer costs approx $10.000 to AMD (read it somewhere in the forum)
add an additional 10% for processing so $11.000

AMD will probably sell full dies at 25% premium to lasered dies while ensuring a gross margin of 50%

75*1.25p+25*p = $22.000
So the cost "p" per lasered die for AIBs will be approx. $185
and the cost per full die will be approx. $230
Now AIBs will target 40% gross margin.. so just the price of the die in BOM is approx. $385
There will be approx 10% of logistics cost on that .. so by the time it reaches distributors the top die would cost $425
Now distributors and retailers will like to make approx 20% commissions on the sale price.. so the suggested price just for the top die would be $530
This is just for the die.. havent factored costs related to PCB/heatsink, etc.
Then there will be taxes over and above that.

Can someone check this.. i have been probably generous with margins

 

[TNA]

Depends I'm in a few minds - if I can source a 3080 at £650 I will probably go with that - though I don't really need more than 3070 performance as the only reason I'd pick up an Ampere GPU at this stage is that I'm doing some RTX development stuff on the side and single digit framerates on my 1070 really don't cut it.

TBH so far most newer games I get bored of them after 5 minutes and go back to alternating between BF4 and TD1 which play fine on my 1070.

You will probably try Cyberpunk and then say something like the controls are clunky, can’t enjoy this

 

[Rroff]

You will probably try Cyberpunk and then say something like the controls are clunky, can’t enjoy this

Probably. I'm still having a hard time with Cyberpunk - I want to like it but all the footage and so on looks such a mishmash of ideas thrown in because it sounded cool on paper it just doesn't grab me.

I'm having a hard time justifying a 3080 to my self - coming from an 8GB VRAM GPU even though I rarely use more than 5-6GB tops 10GB just feels short sighted - if it had at least 12 I'd probably be more willing to part with my money above £650.

 

[g67575]

I think Cyperpunk looks very action oriented in the recent trailers, I hope it doesn't just play like another Rambo / one man army type shooter.

What happened to the girl with the 'blade arm' attachments we saw in early trailers, she was a bit more interesting.

 

[Robert896r1]

here's a gears 5 bench with all settings ultra. note, i'm rendering slightly more pixels than 4k here but results should be within run variance. This is an oc'd 2080ti on air so nothing special on a cheap, inadequate, Windforce cooler

Overall i do think this navi card they showed here will sit nicely above a 2080ti but either just below or trading blows with a 3080 which is really good. Now it depends on the price of course.

 

[TNA]

Probably. I'm still having a hard time with Cyberpunk - I want to like it but all the footage and so on looks such a mishmash of ideas thrown in because it sounded cool on paper it just doesn't grab me.

I'm having a hard time justifying a 3080 to my self - coming from an 8GB VRAM GPU even though I rarely use more than 5-6GB tops 10GB just feels short sighted - if it had at least 12 I'd probably be more willing to part with my money above £650.

I think maybe a 3070 16gb is best for you as you seem to like to keep cards for a long time.

 

[Slinky69]

Neither are your friend, they all want what's in your pants.

Kinky!

 

[KentMan]

Yesterdays reveal and pricing was an interesting thing... on one hand AMD deserves to make more cash given the lead they seemingly now have over Intel.. however i feel they messed up the pricing on the lower tier, their x600 chips were arguably the smart choice for most people, as they hit an absolute stonking price to perf ratio. With the Zen3 prices they have basically thrown that in the bin.

Looking at the prices the 5600X and 5800X are both probably $50 more than they should be, maybe even more on the 5600X. They have dominated sales for a while now but if you look i bet the majority of the sales are in that lower end, x600X and x700X series. There are many people who were waiting to upgrade to 5XXX chips and bought stop gaps to tide them over, i wonder how many of them will now just look at getting a 3900X or something 2nd hand or in a sale.

Which actually sets a worrying president for their GPU's, as i think they may well pull the same stunt there as well, regardless of not having the mindshare or featureset or even performance of Nvidia, they'll price close to Nvidia and lose a ton of sales in the process.

I still think there's a bigger version of Navi coming than what they showed, but i bet it sits just below 3090 in both price and performance, same with what was shown yesterday, i believe that part is targeted to compete with the 3080, and i bet that sits around £630 MSRP, and obviously will get gouged by retailers.

While i dislike Nvidias business practices, the 3080 on paper (Excuse the pun) looks like an absolute stonker, especially at the targeted MSRP, AMD have no right to charge anywhere near that for a card that is within 10% of its performance but lacks features such as DLSS and the level of Ray Tracing, but i think they will.

I also think AMD will look at the general feedback they are now receiving on Social Media / Reddit / Tech forums etc and will potentially adjust accordingly, pretty sure they done that previously with Zen, dropped the price from the initial launch price when they realised the backlash from it. Dont get me wrong, that Zen3 deserves to be priced well, and they'll make a ton of cash from it, but the smarter company would have not driven the prices so hard to entice as many as possible to move across, right now, Intel are the cheaper option, something none of us would have thought.

They need to be careful the same does not happen with Nvidia, in a market segment they have almost no share of.

 

[Troezar]

For some (not you), being an ***hole is their passion and hobby.

Haha thanks. You are right, I've worked with people like that. Eight hours a day of that is a nightmare!

 

[HRL]

Utter tosh. This was AMD loud and proud about RYZEN. This was not about Big Navi and I'm very surprised we even got this level of teaser. If this teaser got any bigger it'd be a full-blown reveal.

Nail.On.Head.

I was ready to get a 3090 but I’m actually glad I was unable to get one on launch day now and will wait and see what happens in a couple more weeks.

If the train derails I’ll just get an order in and wait like everyone else already is for a 3090.

Fairly optimistic about the new Navi cards though.

 

[gpuerrilla]

Yesterdays reveal and pricing was an interesting thing... on one hand AMD deserves to make more cash given the lead they seemingly now have over Intel.. however i feel they messed up the pricing on the lower tier, their x600 chips were arguably the smart choice for most people, as they hit an absolute stonking price to perf ratio. With the Zen3 prices they have basically thrown that in the bin.

Looking at the prices the 5600X and 5800X are both probably $50 more than they should be, maybe even more on the 5600X. They have dominated sales for a while now but if you look i bet the majority of the sales are in that lower end, x600X and x700X series. There are many people who were waiting to upgrade to 5XXX chips and bought stop gaps to tide them over, i wonder how many of them will now just look at getting a 3900X or something 2nd hand or in a sale.

Which actually sets a worrying president for their GPU's, as i think they may well pull the same stunt there as well, regardless of not having the mindshare or featureset or even performance of Nvidia, they'll price close to Nvidia and lose a ton of sales in the process.

I still think there's a bigger version of Navi coming than what they showed, but i bet it sits just below 3090 in both price and performance, same with what was shown yesterday, i believe that part is targeted to compete with the 3080, and i bet that sits around £630 MSRP, and obviously will get gouged by retailers.

While i dislike Nvidias business practices, the 3080 on paper (Excuse the pun) looks like an absolute stonker, especially at the targeted MSRP, AMD have no right to charge anywhere near that for a card that is within 10% of its performance but lacks features such as DLSS and the level of Ray Tracing, but i think they will.

I also think AMD will look at the general feedback they are now receiving on Social Media / Reddit / Tech forums etc and will potentially adjust accordingly, pretty sure they done that previously with Zen, dropped the price from the initial launch price when they realised the backlash from it. Dont get me wrong, that Zen3 deserves to be priced well, and they'll make a ton of cash from it, but the smarter company would have not driven the prices so hard to entice as many as possible to move across, right now, Intel are the cheaper option, something none of us would have thought.

They need to be careful the same does not happen with Nvidia, in a market segment they have almost no share of.

Just putting it out there. At the high end nvidia have not had competition for some time. Let's continue with the theme of AMD have a 3080 competitor. You are worried about pricing. Well what we can hope for is with the release of the 3070 imminent, that both AMD and nvidia are slugging it out between the £400-900 price segment.

I am hoping that a price war snowballs up. As long as stock can start flowing in, it looks like around christmas and into 2021 you may see the creep down in prices? Both 5070XT and 5060XT started off way too high, they took at least 5 weeks after launch to start sliding down.

 

[Robert896r1]

Borderlands 4k:

Keep in mind that's not a FE 3080 but an aftermarket one which scores higher than the FE cards. In reality, the 3080 and RDNA2 cards are trading blows at 4k. With cheaper GDDR6 and less power hungry TSMC node, AMD should really be in a position to fight nvidia on price and performance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1X4gm4ztOE&t=1023s

 

[ICDP]

They have been behind Intel for years regarding gaming,and the moment they are similar or a bit faster,the price goes up magically,they drop CPU coolers,etc. AMD basically took the 65W TDP successor to the Ryzen 5 3600,made it an X series(pushed up one tier),bundled the same rubbish Wraith Spire cpu cooler,and made it a $300 CPU instead of a $200 one.

So looking at how much the Fury X,Vega64 and Vega7 cost,do you think if AMD gets close to a RTX3080,it will be cheaper?? They also tarted up the cooler,and it is a bigger 7NM chip than a CPU.

Remember what they did with Navi10? Navi10 in GPU die size,is a traditional AMD mainstream GPU like AMD Ellesmere/Polaris 20. AMD officially leaked images had the RX5700XT as the RX680/RX690. The moment they realised it could compete with the RTX2070,they pushed the price up. They only jebaited the price,because Nvidia pushed out the Super series. Then with the RX5600XT,the original specifications had it barely better than a GTX1660TI for similar money(despite the cheaper GTX1660 Super existing). But Nvidia dropped the RTX2060 price(and it was faster),so they pushed out the emergency BIOS flash to overclock the GPUs,and many RX5600XT couldn't support the faster RAM specifications.

Everything about the "new AMD" in the recent past,is about pushing up pricing as close as possible to Intel and Nvidia,and then waiting for a response. I hope I am wrong,but its going to be Nvidia who is determining what AMD will charge(again).

AMD isn't the value brand anymore!

This is absolutely spot on, AMD have said they do not consider themselves the budget brand and quite frankly nor should they. Having said that they are now starting to charge a premium for minor performance gains the same way Nvidia and Intel do. I am an AMD fan but I wont pay silly money for modest performance gains. That's why I stopped upgrading my 4770K and why I had a GT8800 for years.

RX6000 seems to be on par with RTX 3080, if they come in at £550 - £575 and with stock to sell then I would consider it a good deal. At ~£600 then I would be kinda still interested but if they try to charge the same as 3080 MSRP then few will buy AMD over Nvidia. Before anyone argues that 3080 is not available for MSRP it must be considered that most people wont care. The perception is what matters and AMD aren't in a position to ignore that level mindshare because if Nvidia and AMD are same price/perf on paper, then most will go Nvidia.

 

[gpuerrilla]

Borderlands 4k:
Keep in mind that's not a FE 3080 but an aftermarket one which scores higher than the FE cards. In reality, the 3080 and RDNA2 cards are trading blows at 4k. With cheaper GDDR6 and less power hungry TSMC node, AMD should really be in a position to fight nvidia on price and performance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1X4gm4ztOE&t=1023s

Thanks for posting buddy.

This is absolutely spot on, AMD have said they do not consider themselves the budget brand and quite frankly nor should they. Having said that they are now starting to charge a premium for minor performance gains the same way Nvidia and Intel do. I am an AMD fan but I wont pay silly money for modest performance gains. That's why I stopped upgrading my 4770K and why I had a GT8800 for years.

RX6000 seems to be on par with RTX 3080, if they come in at £550 - £575 and with stock to sell then I would consider it a good deal. At ~£600 then I would be kinda still interested but if they try to charge the same as 3080 MSRP then few will buy AMD over Nvidia. Before anyone argues that 3080 is not available for MSRP it must be considered that most people wont care. The perception is what matters and AMD aren't in a position to ignore that level mindshare because if Nvidia and AMD are same price/perf on paper, then most will go Nvidia.

I agree with you and the same. I like AMD as a brand and an option, but if they were to price the same as nvidia it doesnt mean I am going to pay that.

Although they are still the 'value' brand for the time being, you cannot argue over the Zen generations they have earned the right to start pricing like intel. All intel has to do is make better product or cut the price (which they should have done a long time ago). Nvidia can do the same.

As with my 3600 ryzen 5, I waited till they dropped £40 off the launch price till snapping one up. Nobody is forcing you to commit to launch prices unless your like the stampede that had to 'pre-order' the 3080's.

 

[Richdog]

If the train derails I’ll just get an order in and wait like everyone else already is for a 3090.

Fairly optimistic about the new Navi cards though.

LIf you can't get a £600 card that performs like a 3080 you will buy one that costs £1600 that performs 15% better as a next best solution? LOL...

 

[Slam62]

Borderlands 4k:

Keep in mind that's not a FE 3080 but an aftermarket one which scores higher than the FE cards. In reality, the 3080 and RDNA2 cards are trading blows at 4k. With cheaper GDDR6 and less power hungry TSMC node, AMD should really be in a position to fight nvidia on price and performance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1X4gm4ztOE&t=1023s

Yes thanks for this, it sounds like there will be at least some sort competition which will put a new slant on the supply issues.

 

[HRL]

LIf you can't get a £600 card that performs like a 3080 you will buy one that costs £1600 that performs 15% better as a next best solution? LOL...

Not at all. I’m hoping they’ve got a card better than a 3080.

 

[Dontrocktheboat]

Borderlands 4k:

Keep in mind that's not a FE 3080 but an aftermarket one which scores higher than the FE cards. In reality, the 3080 and RDNA2 cards are trading blows at 4k. With cheaper GDDR6 and less power hungry TSMC node, AMD should really be in a position to fight nvidia on price and performance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1X4gm4ztOE&t=1023s

What CPU are you running ?
Navi is running on 5950x Ryzen 9 which is an absolute beast. Would love to see 3080 on that thing.

 

[Richdog]

Not at all. I’m hoping they’ve got a card better than a 3080.

According to all of the information I have read on the main sites leaking info, there is no gaming card higher than the 6900XT planned. Only a fully featured workstation card to compete with the Quadro 6000 is planned and that will cost multiple thousands.

 

[Rroff]

What CPU are you running ?
Navi is running on 5950x Ryzen 9 which is an absolute beast. Would love to see 3080 on that thing.

4K with the kind of settings those benchmarks are run even with 5000 series Ryzen is going to be heavily GPU bound.