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Apparently, peak oil was reached in December

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by robmiller, 18 Feb 2006.

  1. robmiller

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    According to Princeton University Geology Professor Kenneth Deffeyes, anyway:

    [link to full article]

    It would be interesting to get some commentary from resident peak oil fetishist clv101 or anyone else for that matter: what exactly does this mean for society as a whole? Is "By 2025, we're going to be back in the Stone Age" hyperbole? Will we have developed viable alternative fuel technologies by then (hydrogen?)?
     
  2. conundrum

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    PEAK OIL and GAS are near (10 years or so) f we do not find any more large scale reserves across the world. There are many things that can be done to offset PEAK OIL and GAS not least being efficiency gains and just consuming less especially in the USA.

    The subjec is complicated ue to OPEC countries not being very forthcoming with their reserves data.

    take a look here.http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/ (PEAK OIL)

    PEAK GAS http://www.admiralbay.com/global/contentserver/files/1022/150190_resourceworld.pdf

    44 years of Oil left and 60 years of Gas so Peak must be soon.
     
  3. Dolph

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    Don't we reach peak oil approximately once a month according to someone's data.....

    Lots of scaremongering about the subject, a serious lack of facts....
     
  4. robmiller

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    That's exactly what I thought. From what I've read (which isn't as much as many, granted), peak oil appears to be complete sham, yet it seems to be respected by many academics and laymen alike. Strange.

    Edit: when I say "sham", I obviously don't refer to the general concept of peak oil; obviously a finite resource like oil will reach a peak in acquisition at some point. It just strikes me that people are vastly overestimating the consequences of such a peak, and vastly underestimating the time in which such a peak will occur.
     
    Last edited: 18 Feb 2006
  5. Sleepy

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    According to Tim Lentons Team from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich we have only used 10% of fossil fuel reserves. And unconventional fossil fuels may treble the amount of fuel remaining .
     
  6. atpbx

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    For gods sake dont let Clv see that, he will hang himself if its true, his reason for existance will of gone.
     
  7. dirtydog

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    That sounds like laughable nonsense to me, how do they come up with those claims? :eek:
     
  8. Jokester

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    10% seems low, but as the price of a barrel of oil increases, it becomes more economical to extract the smaller/more difficult reserves. In the North Sea, traditionally companies have used a figure about $15 a barrel if I remember correctly (and actually cost of extraction is typically about $5-10 over the field life!), so with prices at $60 a barrel and not looking to move significantly down if peak oil is as close as touted there would appear to be the economics to exploit reserves previously discarded as uneconomical.

    Jokester
     
  9. Rancidelephant

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    A reply without any backup or facts surrounding it...

    My friend who works at npower as a charging analyst says the current supposed shortage is completely made up and ficticious ... but im not gonna give you any propper evidence as i dont have any. Something to ponder though.
     
  10. Slam62

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    Wow we've got no oil and then loads of oil, i dont think i've used my share yet anyway, althogh some yank will probably nick it.

    Will the oil run out before global warming kills us all.

    This planet is amzing it is just the right distance from the sun to provide the right temperature, has loads of water, is big enough to have enough gravity to keep us and our air on board. look at the moon, whilits nice to see its rubbish theres nothing there not even cheese. I know this is a bit random but mans dissappearing up his own ...
     
  11. Killerkebab

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    Would you rather we use the moon as a place to dump all of our nuclear waste? Hell I'd love a moon which glows :D
     
  12. Slam62

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    great idea, we should buy the moon and flog advertising space, it would get even more coverage than f1.

    I dont understand it all mars is yuck too, why do they keep sending rubbish little robots to mars and go on about the pictures which are always the same boring red rocky stuff.

    They could never pipe the oil back anyway

    Hey has Bernie considered an f1 race on the moon - satelite coverage only

    sorry, its a serious subject
     
  13. conundrum

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    The official literature printed by respected bodies such as here:
    http://planetforlife.com/oilcrisis/oilreserves.html - this is BPs own assessemnt.
    http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/ene_oil_res
    http://www.factmonster.com/ipka/A0872964.html

    states the following:

    Officially there is some 1.2 trillion barrels of currently available Oil (including the weird 1980's jumps in OPEC countries reserves) with present technology. Ultimately recoverable reserves however are something ese and could total a lot more. How much well no one really knows but the USGS has this information here: http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/oilcharts.html and it may be as much as 5 trillion barrels of some 200 years of reserves if we can only get at it. So can we get at it, no one knows at the present time.

    at presnt rates of consumption and listing only proved reserves we have 44 years of Oil and 60 years of Gas and hence PEAK will be within 10 years it is reckoned.
     
  14. Sharknose

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    This is my 'gut' feeling, but I think we either we peaked last year, and are now on riding this peak a little bit....... or we'll be peaking in the next 2 years.

    The thing is, we won't know for sure until a few years yet anyway.

    One thing though, the North Sea has certainly peaked, and that will have an effect on the UK.

    Have you noticed though, that in the last month or so, there are have been more and more energy related stories popping up over at the BBC.
    Why???
    (See http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/sci_tech/2006/energy/default.stm).

    Anyway, if we are 'lucky' and peak is still 30 years away, we'll carry on to destroy the planet with all that Co2 we'll be chucking out.


    Disclaimer: This is all just gut feeling and personal opinion. I'll leave it up to the other Peak-Oilers to supply some figures for me ;)
     
  15. Sharknose

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    This one gets me everytime. The point is, present rates of consumption will not be maintained!

    Scenario one) Plenty of the stuff under the ground for now.... so the consumption rate will increase because the Chinese and Indian's are screaming out for oil.
    Scenario two) Consumption will go down, because we've peaked.
     
  16. clv101

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    Ken Deffeyes is an interesting chap - incredibly qualified, he's done about everything a petroleum geologists could do in his very long carrear. He's also got a sense of humour. The analysis is totally tong in cheek, there's nothing to say global oil extraction rate curve will follow a perfect derivative of the logistic curve (it hasn't so far!), there's nothing to say peak rate will occur at 50%, it could be 55 or 60%... but leaving the unjustifiable precision and assumptions aside his point does stand.

    2005 may have been the most productive year we'll ever have. It's clear to me we are at or near peak oil. Here's some evidence.

    Major individual countries have already peaked (America, Norway, Venezuela, UK, Indonesia etc.).
    Individual companies have peaked (Chevron, Exxon, Shell, Total): link, link
    Individual grades of oil have peaked (Light sweet crude): link
    The 4 biggest oil fields in the world have peaked: link

    The only thing left to peak is total all oil extraction rates for which the experts predict 2007/8.

    These are all things that were going to happen before a global peak, large number of significant individual countries peaking, large number of significant individual companies peaking and the most attractive individual grades of oil peaking - they've all happened.

    What this means for the world is a completely different subject but the fact that we’re extracting almost 85 million barrels per day, a figure that won’t significantly increase and will soon decline is a certainty in my mind.

    The other way to think about it is to look at the alternative - If oil extraction rate isn't going to peak at around the current level within a few years then it will carry on increasing. The "late toppers" suggested business as usual will continue for another 20 to 30 years. 25 years of 1.5% per year increases would take extraction rates up from 85mbpd to 123mbpd. Also note that the existing 85mbpd is currently declining at around 5% per year (always has, the only reason total extraction rates have increases is because more new extraction was brought on to more than offset this decline). 25 years of 5% decline from 85mbpd leaves us with 24mbpd from today's fields.

    So to hit 123mbpd in 2031 we would need to bring online an aditional 123-24 = 99mbpd of new extraction. That's more than 10 Saudi Arabia's.

    To extract oil first one has to discover oil - we haven't discovered another 10 Saudi Arabias. See this graph of histroic discoveries:

    [​IMG]

    10% could be about right with coal considered - of course it's not all technically and economically feisable for extraction.
     
  17. conundrum

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    Oil consumption rates are increasing by 1.8 % per annum and as clv101 has stated i will mean going from 84 mbpd now to some 120 mbpd by 2030 which means bringing online vast oil reserves that are as yet to be discovered or the technology to be invented to extract it all.

    CLV101 is quite right and Oil and Gas (which he has not specifically mentioned) are on the way out and PEAK will be here within 10 years according to the literature that I have read anyways.

    In addition to all of this is the fact that Easy Oil is over. Oil will be more difficult to extract and hence will return less energy from now on. Tar and shail sands which many people are touting as then next big energy thing are a fools gold apprantly because extraction requires masses of natural gas and water but even more valid is the lack of energy you get back from extraction.

    Another issue is the 1980's OPEC jumps which means that there is not as much Oil as has been reported/recorded. http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=1493

    Kuwait only appears to have half the reported amount.
     
    Last edited: 19 Feb 2006
  18. clv101

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    robmiller, what is it that makes you think peak oil is a "complete sham" in terms of consequences and timing? To be honest consequences could be anything and no one really knows, economic collapse USSR style? Shift to personal agriculture Cuba style? Population dieoff Easter Island style? The timing however is much clearer, do you stand by your initial position given what I posted above?
     
  19. conundrum

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    I believe that there is a lot of uncertainty and media speculation out there regarding Oil especially with regards to economics (who simply refuse to accept that PEAK anything can exist). Many commentators just seem to spew whatever they like in ths regard and seldon revert back to any concrete facts.

    If the USGS for instance state that there are some x trillion barrels of unconventional Oil reserves out there then this is taken as red by some that this Oil is easy enough to extract, refine and use. Seldom is the fact mentioned that it takes a lot more energy to get at the Oil then current Oil, that a lot of it is unlikely to ever be extracted due to cost and that it is a different Oil from current Oil and harder and more expensive to refine.

    There are a lot of unknowns but if we speak of current known assessments then yes something is going to give within 10 years.
     
  20. anarchist

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