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Avian bird flu H5N1??

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Glaucus, 20 Feb 2006.

  1. Glaucus

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 11 Mar 2004

    Posts: 76,645

    After hearing more "scaremongering" in the news, I was trying to find out how deadley this viruse is.. Howmnay people have been identified with it, howmany have died, how the infection spreads and what it does to the body.. Google just seems to bring up webpages that sugest if it evolves it could be the next big epidemic.. Whta I want to know ids what the current strain is like, not hype about possible future strains..

    Anyone know any stats or anything about it?
     
  2. Tru

    Mobster

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 2,959

    Location: OcUK Peoples Champion

    I'm pretty sure I heard on the news this morning that Vietnam, agruably the worst affected country, has all but eradicated it through culls and vaccinations. I can't find anything on the beeb at the moment though.
     
  3. William

    Capodecina

    Joined: 26 Jul 2003

    Posts: 10,948

    Location: Derby

    It basically makes your immune system work a lot harder than it should do. So you die of overheating and often drowing as your lungs fill with fluid its like a very strong flu.

    There is a vaccine I think, but it is not availiable in large quantities because you have to incubate H5N1 to make it and that is time related. Apparently the best course of action for a mass infection is a drug which reduces symptoms.
     
  4. Berserker

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 4 Nov 2002

    Posts: 15,454

    Location: West Berkshire

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/3422839.stm

    :)
     
  5. Cuchulain

    Sgarrista

    Joined: 28 Dec 2004

    Posts: 7,627

    Location: Derry

    91 deaths .. chances are more people have died through spontaneous human combustion.
     
  6. FTM

    Soldato

    Joined: 10 Dec 2003

    Posts: 6,112

    Location: South Shields

    you will have more chance of getting knocked down in the next 7 days than you will of contracting avian flu
     
  7. Glaucus

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 11 Mar 2004

    Posts: 76,645


    Thanks thats pretty much what I wanted :)...

    so its about 50-50 survival ratio...

    DOesn't look like it should cause to much problem unless it mutates, seems to strugle with transmision from human to human.
     
  8. AJUK

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 14 Nov 2003

    Posts: 10,949

    Unless you have feathers and a beak you have nothing to worry about. :p

    Edit:

    If you take a look at which countries have had casualties (Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, China, Turkey and Iraq,) it probably has more to do with the general standard of hygiene and the fact that in those countries they live with the birds in their houses. If you are not a peasant, you are not going to catch it. ;)
     
    Last edited: 20 Feb 2006
  9. Glaucus

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 11 Mar 2004

    Posts: 76,645

    I'm not worried about it, I was just wondering how much truth there was behind all the news reports, which just want to scaermonger...

    As for instant human combustion, Such a thing does exist how ever theres nothing instant about it takes around 12hrs to bird the body, and just the bottom of the legs are left(not enough fat to reach high enough temprature to combust the bones). Everything else is burnt including the bones..
     
  10. elroberto

    Mobster

    Joined: 21 Apr 2004

    Posts: 3,044

    Location: Sunny Wales

    I think the scares are more about the possibility of the strain mutating to allow human to human contact which would put most of the planet at risk.
     
  11. meths

    Mobster

    Joined: 12 Mar 2005

    Posts: 4,014

    And you say your not obsessed with bird flu. :p
     
  12. Le_Petit_Lapin

    Capodecina

    Joined: 5 Sep 2005

    Posts: 11,742

    Location: Northern Ireland

    You now officially scare me.
     
  13. Elston

    Hitman

    Joined: 21 Oct 2002

    Posts: 902

    Location: Carmarthen

    Also remember that those 91 deaths are over a period of 3 years, excluding the first death which was in 1998 or something, then nothing until 2003.
     
  14. Belmit

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 7 Nov 2002

    Posts: 7,612

    Location: The Winchester

    "Wing! Like a bird's wing!"

    /TMWRNJ
     
  15. Glaucus

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 11 Mar 2004

    Posts: 76,645

    HAHA thats a great typo :), me does it again...
     
  16. weeble

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 22 Nov 2004

    Posts: 1,122

    Location: NW5

    It can't be spread human to human yet, and the only people that have died have been in close proximity to birds, working on farms etc. No doubt when it arrives here, they'll just eradicate the birds, like they did with foot and mouth, and setup exclusion zones.
     
  17. Immsy

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 2,367

    Ive been readin about it on the BBC site. Apparantly the worse case scenario is that it infects a human at the same time that said human has ordinary human flu. Then the 2 could possibly mutate together to form a bird flu that can pass between humans.
     
  18. tom_e

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 26 Dec 2003

    Posts: 27,582

    Location: Shropshire

    Even then it will have to mutate in an exact way that allows human to human transmision
     
  19. benjo plz.

    Capodecina

    Joined: 15 Jan 2004

    Posts: 14,208

    Location: Hall

    Yeh, but if it does mutate to h2h transmittable, we still don't know how bad it will be.
     
  20. Ceareatus

    Associate

    Joined: 14 Feb 2006

    Posts: 39

    Location: Lost

    Sorry of this seems rather long and has been posted before.

    About Bird Flu.
    Bird flu also known as avian influenza, is a flu that is hosted by birds but it can infect several species of mammals, It was first identified in Italy in the 1900s and is now known to exist all over the world.
    There are many strains of the avian flu virus. In fact they count a possible 244 different combinations are possible, most known strains are extinct. Some Strains that are known to effect humans are:

    • H1N1
    • H2N2
    • H3N2
    • H5N1
    • H7N7
    • H9N2
    • H7N2
    • H7N3
    • H10N7
    I know these letters and numbers don’t mean much but that’s see the history behind them.

    History Of Bird Flu.
    • H1N1
      A strain of H1N1 was responsible for the Spanish flu pandemic that is believed to have killed some 50 million to 100 million people worldwide over about a year in 1918 and 1919.
    • H2N2
      The Asian flu was a pandemic outbreak of H2N2 avian flu that originated in China in 1957, it spread worldwide and lasted until 1958 and caused between one and four million deaths.
    • H3N2
      Strain of avian flu that caused Hong Kong Flu pandemic of 1968 and 1969 that killed up to 750,000. This is the dominant strain of annual flu in resistance to the standard antiviral drugs amantadine and rimantadine.
    • H5N1
      H5N1 is a highly infectious form of avian flu. Since 1997, outbreaks of H5N1 flu have caused the death or elimination of tens of millions of birds. Over 100 people have been infected by H5N1, with a mortality rate of over 50%. (This means that over 50% of people that will and have caught bird flu will die.)
      H5N1 has been the focus of much concern amid warnings that the H5N1 strain will likely evolve into a form that causes a global human pandemic with a very high mortality rate. As of November 1, 2005, 122 cases of infections in humans, resulting in 62 deaths, have been confirmed outside of China.
    • H7N7
      In 2003 in Netherlands 89 people were confirmed to have H7N7 flu virus infection following an outbreak in poultry on several farms. One death was recorded.
    • H9N2
      Low infectious strain of avian flu was confirmed in 1999 in China and Hong Kong in two children and in 2003 in Hong Kong in one child. All three fully recovered.
    • H7N2
      One person in New York in 2003 and one person in Virginia in 2002 were found to have evidence of infection with H7N2. Both fully recovered.
    • H7N3
      In North America, the presence of avian flu strain H7N3 was confirmed at several poultry farms in British Columbia in February 2004. As of April 2004, 18 farms had been quarantined to halt the spread of the virus. Two cases of humans with avian influenza have been confirmed in that region. "Symptoms included conjunctivitis and mild influenzalike illness." Both fully recovered.
    • H10N7
      In 2004 in Egypt H10N7 is reported for the first time in humans. It caused illness in two infants in Egypt. One child’s father is a poultry merchant.

    Infection
    The H5N1 strain is our current worry as the WHO (World Health Organisation) fears it may mutate with a common form of everyday flu and become easily passed between humans also possibly creating subtypes of the virus making it harder to eliminate, which could create a pandemic killing millions of people worldwide.

    At this current time H5N1 can only be transmitted to a human through very close contact with a bird.

    In humans, avian flu viruses cause similar symptoms to other types of flu. These include fever, cough, sore throat, muscle aches, conjunctivitis and in severe cases, severe breathing problems and pneumonia that can be fatal. The severity of the infection will depend to a large part on the state of the infected person's immune system and if the victim has been exposed to the strain before.
    Severe infection from H5N1 can cause multiple lung infections (including pus, fever, cough), lung scar tissue, fluid in the space surrounding the lungs, enlarged lymph nodes and cavities forming in the lung tissue.

    Bird flu, Treatment and Prevention.
    Although avian influenza virus in humans can be detected with standard influenza virus tests, these tests have not always proved reliable. In March 2005, the World Health Organization announced that seven people from Vietnam who initially tested negative for bird flu were later found to have carried the virus. All seven have since recovered. As of June 2005, the most reliable test (microneutralization) requires use of the live virus to interact with antibodies from the patient's blood; because live virus is required, for safety reasons the test can only be done in a level three laboratory, so is very unpractical in the case of an epidemic.
    Antiviral drugs such as oseltamivir, zanamivir and amantadine are sometimes effective in both preventing and treating the infection. Countries have been stockpiling these drugs in case of an epidemic.
    Flu vaccines, however, take at least four months to produce and must be prepared for each known subtype of the avian flu.
    Further, as a result of widespread use of the antiviral drug amantadine as a preventive or treatment for chickens in China, some strains of the avian flu virus in Asia have developed drug resistance against amantadine making it ineffective.

    Vaccine
    In order to prevent a global pandemic of the avian flu, governments and medical companies are producing flu vaccines to prevent sicknesses and widespread disease. The current method to produce the vaccine is the egg culture. The process is used by growing the virus in fertilized chicken eggs. Later, the virus is chemically killed and purified and is made into a vaccine. Another process is the human-cell method. The virus can easily reproduce and grow inside a human cell. The virus is later destroyed and produced into a vaccine. But this vaccine needs to be taken within 48 hours of contracting bird flu.

    Global Spread of Bird Flu

    Image Updated October 26th 2005
    [​IMG]
    Since this image was published by the World Health Organisation the following reports of bird flu have been made:
    • 31 October 2005: Russia confirmed suspected H5N1 bird flu in ten rural communities across Russia. The confirmed outbreak sites are in the central areas of Tula and Tambov, as well as in the Urals province of Chelyabinsk and in Omsk and Altai, in Siberia.
    • November 2005: Kuwait has reported positive testing of two birds, one infected with H5N1, and the other with the H5N2 virus. A flamingo holding the H5N1 virus was found dead by the sea, it was killed by authorities and did not die from the virus.
    • December 2005: "China confirms its third human death from bird flu. That brings the death toll to 74, comprising 14 victims in Thailand, four in Cambodia, 11 in Indonesia, 42 in Vietnam and three in China."
    • January 5, 2006: Second Turkish child dies from bird flu. Fatma was 15-years-old. Her brother, 14-year-old Mehmet Ali Kocyigit, also died of the H5N1 strain of bird flu.
    • January 6, 2006: A Third Turkish child dies of suspected bird flu. The third from the same family. A fourth remained in critical condition.
    • January 7, 2006: Two more children are hospitalized after contracting bird flu like symptoms then later test positive for H5N1. They are both from the same area as the three children that have already died due to H5N1 infection bringing the total amount of cases in Turkey to 5, with 2 of them fatal. 76 people have died since the outbreak began in 2003.
    • January 8, 2006: Three people are hospitalized after developing suspected H5N1 in the Turkish capital. Another boy is hospitalized in central Turkey it is unclear if he contracted H5N1.
    • January 10, 2006: A woman is diagnosed with bird flu, as Turkey struggles to contain the outbreak. China announces that two more people had died of bird flu before 2006 began.Indonesia confirms that a 29 year old woman has died from suspected bird flu. 80 people have died from confimed and suspected cases of the virus.
    • January 16, 2006 : A 15-year-old Indonesian girl from Indraymayu, Java, dies of bird flu.
    • January 18, 2006 : A girl with a lung infection dies in Iraq she is being tested for H5N1. China and Turkey each confirm another human death from H5N1. A 13-year-old boy dies in Indonesia, he is the brother of the girl who died on January 16.
    • January 21, 2006: The WHO confirms that the two Indonesian children died of H5N1.
    • January 21, 2006: France is investigating a possible case of bird flu in a French woman who has returned from Turkey.

    Worst Case Scenario

    The worst case scenario for a H5N1 pandemic is somewhere around 150,000,000 human deaths directly due to H5N1 infection (or two to three percent of the world's human population). No one knows what the chances are for this worst case scenario. Also the World Bank estimates the effect on global economy could cost up to $800billion. But that is directly to the effect of the virus what about indirectly?
    Quarantines may need to be set up as well as curfews and other precautionary measures this infection could become so bad that we are all isolated to our homes dying due to lack of food and water, under extreme circumstances like this even law and order can and will break down causing anarchy, doctors and other important people in our daily lives will die leaving us short hand or they will be too afraid or too sick to even leave their homes. This virus could completely shut down the world for a period of time killing even more people indirectly.