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China vs US

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by tron, 26 Feb 2009.

  1. tron

    Hitman

    Joined: 2 Jul 2007

    Posts: 907

    With China economy output not far away from the Us how will the Us respond to this threat of a challage to its own interests in this area.

    Will the Us just let China eventually surpass its own economy ?

    Or will the Us consider taking things into its own hands to prevent this from happening like possible military action ?



    What are your thoughts on this ?
     
  2. Phoen1x

    Hitman

    Joined: 26 Oct 2004

    Posts: 995

    Location: York

    There is no way the US will risk the fallout (literally!) from a military confrontation with China.

    However

    I wouldn't put it past them to operate a 'cold' type of campaign, largely on economic lines. The alternative of course is to work together and boost both nations!
     
  3. Topper

    Hitman

    Joined: 11 Jun 2006

    Posts: 636

    Economic bickering with lots of diplomatic smiling and occasional chest beating. That seems to be the standard formula.
     
  4. tron

    Hitman

    Joined: 2 Jul 2007

    Posts: 907

    Would the two countrys still work together if the topic was about remaining energy(oil) supplies ?
     
  5. skankmaster

    Gangster

    Joined: 24 May 2004

    Posts: 439

    I dont think a nuclear superpower will pick a fight on another nuclear superpower somehow! (however military action is open to interpretation). Suspect it will still end up as China makes the goods cheap, while US buys from them.
     
  6. THMRK

    Mobster

    Joined: 19 May 2005

    Posts: 4,548

    Location: Glasgow, Rock City.

    The economy of China is getting bigger BECAUSE of the US. Both economies are essentially co-dependant now.
     
  7. cje

    Hitman

    Joined: 3 Jan 2009

    Posts: 790

    I heard somehwere that if China sold all it's bonds, that it could effectively bankrupt the US. Can't remember where I heard that, I might have been lashed at the time...
     
  8. skeletonw00t

    Gangster

    Joined: 8 Jan 2007

    Posts: 221

    you do realise china would need 35 years of sustained 10% growth of its economy to surpass that of the US?

    Talk of china taking over the US anytime soon are rediculous and uninformed.
     
  9. mrthingyx

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 3 Apr 2003

    Posts: 15,582

    Location: Cambridge

    China currently owns around $682bn of US foreign debt. Which is a lot. But then, the UK owns $360bn... which is also a lot.
     
  10. clv101

    Capodecina

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 10,797

    Location: Bristol

    Where did you pull that fact from? It's wrong.

    China GDP $4.22 trillion (2008)
    USA GDP $14.33 trillion (2008)

    After 35 years of 10% growth China's GDP would be $119 trillion. A good bit larger than the current world GDP!

    It would take China 13 years of 10% growth to reach the US's current output.

    I guess to be fair we should ignore recessions and assume the US can continue to grow at around 2%. In that case China's 10% growth rate overtakes the US in 17 years.

    This data is at official exchange rates. A more meaningful metric is purchasing power parity. Stuff in China is cheaper - a dollar goes further there. In PPP China is currently at $7.8 trillion and just 7 years of 10% growth away from reaching the present US and 9 years from overtaking a US growing at 2%.
     
  11. Phatjayunoi

    Mobster

    Joined: 2 Dec 2008

    Posts: 3,813

    Location: Heaven and Earth Temple

    If a China vs U.S war ever happens, no doubt it will be the stupid Americans that start it seeing as how war hungry they always are, and even then it will be ridiculously retarded of them to do so as both countries need to depend on each other.

    China has always been a peaceful country (Subjective) throughout its history, obviously apart from its own internal wars or conflicts with neighbouring states/countries on its own borders. The likes of Tibet, North Korea, Vietnam or Taiwan are different issues.

    Apart from a few navy ships near Somalia or the Gulf of Aden due to increasing pirate activity, you don't ever see Chinese armed forces hundreds and thousands of miles away from home, invading other countries or stationed bases unlike the Western powers i.e. U.S or the history of Colonialism.
     
  12. Nix

    Capodecina

    Joined: 26 Dec 2005

    Posts: 19,839

    No economy can go it alone in the world today, it just simply cannot happen. China closed its doors to get into the position it is today, but ultimately it still had to allow trade.

    Any hot or cold confrontation between the two states will only result in economic devestation and also pressure from other supranational organisations such as the EU. I doubt it will ever happen based on ideological reasons, but economical. Such economical reasons too will not be a result of America playing second fiddle but rather due to securing their resources such as oil.
     
  13. EffBee

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 9 Dec 2006

    Posts: 1,329

    What did the British Empire do in its declining years as the US rose to world dominance last century? Nothing.

    What will the the US do in its declining years as the Chinese rise to world dominance this century? Also nothing.

    (NB The US is basically a big bully as a nation - it will not pick a fight with anyone capable of actually hurting them back home)
     
  14. Nix

    Capodecina

    Joined: 26 Dec 2005

    Posts: 19,839

    Urm, I wouldn't say that the post-WWII decline of the Empire is synonymous with today. There were quite a different set of circumstances surrounding the decline which America doesn't have to worry about.
     
  15. clv101

    Capodecina

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 10,797

    Location: Bristol

    Well... depending on how one counts future liabilities, the US is poorer today than the UK was after WWII making the fall from dominance of the US today more likely than the UK's decline 60 years ago.
     
  16. Nix

    Capodecina

    Joined: 26 Dec 2005

    Posts: 19,839

    But America hasn't just been socially, demographically, and economically ravaged by two world-wars then lost its overseas assets (which were its bread and butter for centuries) has it?
     
  17. Audigex

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 3 Feb 2009

    Posts: 2,238

    Point Nix.

    America is in the process of being economically ravaged, but it's not on the same scale.

    My thoughts: China will catch up in the next decade, but the rate of closure between them will reduce. As with any developing country, pretty soon wages and living standards in China will rise, and work ethic will drop away with more money and less government pressure. China, as with all developed countries, will at that point be much more reliant on other countries; it will simply be a player on the same terms as the US, German, France, Russia and the UK. Interplay between the countries and companies within will keep a status quo of sorts.
     
  18. Ricochet J

    Capodecina

    Joined: 29 Jun 2004

    Posts: 12,915

    India will suprise everyone and surpass the US economy faster than China. The western countries will support India. Russia, Middle East and former communist countries will support China. Tensions between India and China will increase as ongoing skirmishes are not uncommon. A new cold war will develop around 2020.
     
  19. Serial45

    Hitman

    Joined: 28 Oct 2004

    Posts: 647

    Location: Liverpool UK

    I've thought this for years, I am convinced we will see military conflict with china and russia some point in our lifetimes.

    Both countries could be real threats to the western front.
     
  20. Dev2

    Hitman

    Joined: 5 Jul 2006

    Posts: 959

    Location: Dublin

    Once they are super powers I wouldn't hold my breath on India till after China has solidified itself as economic leader which whatever way you look at it is in at least 20 odd years.

    A more likely scenario is that the new superpowers will fight economic proxy wars. Third world countries will act as pawns in a huge East v strong West chess game on a global scale. From a historical point of view the 21st century will be very interesting. Even more so than the 20th.

    Russia are already playing divide and conquer games with the EU checking for soft spots. The US has already tripped on its own laces a few times the past decade. In the eyes of China the EU is as big as the US and is looking at two massive Western towers. India is still trying to find feet to jump but trying to bring 400 million into the middle class ain't easy.