Failures of West in Eastern Europe

[ubersonic]

Sure, with S-400 and S-500, and SU-35, SU-37...

God bless the believers.

The Su-37 was an experimental Su-27 testbed for new technology (some of which eventually made it to the Su-35/57) only two were made.

But even ignoring that he's completely correct, the EU outnumbers Russia significantly (we're talking more than a 2:1 ratio) in both 5th and 4th gen fighter craft (comically part of this is thanks to Greece blowing it's aid money on F-16s lol). Russia would be completely outmatched in an air war with the EU, and that's ignoring the fact that an attack on the EU is also an attack on NATO, and even if Trump stays in and then decided the USA shouldn't help the USA, we would still have Canada/Australia/etc rocking up.

Comically, Russia's best chance in an attempted invasion of western Europe would be to reactivate the hundreds of Mig-21 they have in storage and try to zerg them along with the main force as flying missile sponges.

 

[englishpremier]

oligarchy in Bulgaria really? I didn;t think they had any oil nor any wealth oil company owners.

Friends with business in Bulgaria, do say that the corruption is still rife, possible worse than before. On the plus side, they got lots of interesting memes of the president with his gun and cash next to his bed.

The Su-37 was an experimental Su-27 testbed for new technology (some of which eventually made it to the Su-35/57) only two were made.

But even ignoring that he's completely correct, the EU outnumbers Russia significantly (we're talking more than a 2:1 ratio) in both 5th and 4th gen fighter craft (comically part of this is thanks to Greece blowing it's aid money on F-16s lol). Russia would be completely outmatched in an air war with the EU, and that's ignoring the fact that an attack on the EU is also an attack on NATO, and even if Trump stays in and then decided the USA shouldn't help the USA, we would still have Canada/Australia/etc rocking up.

Comically, Russia's best chance in an attempted invasion of western Europe would be to reactivate the hundreds of Mig-21 they have in storage and try to zerg them along with the main force as flying missile sponges.

You never know. They might tow their 'aircraft carrier' into the med or Atlantic for a better strategic position.

 

[Rroff]

Comically, Russia's best chance in an attempted invasion of western Europe would be to reactivate the hundreds of Mig-21 they have in storage and try to zerg them along with the main force as flying missile sponges.

That is basically what they "would" do - reactivate the 100s (even 1000s) of older, but still serviceable, generation planes and tanks, etc. + mass conscription. It would likely be a re-run of the opening days of WW1 in many respects in that initially EU countries would be on the back foot and they'd make significant progress but once the EU professional armies have stabilised the advance would be halted - along with problems sustaining the forward pace from extended logistic chains and needing to rotate in fresh man power amongst many other factors.

EDIT: In reality if they ever did mobilise like that it would be for smaller, more holdable, gains and quite unlikely to happen.

 

[4K8KW10]

oligarchy in Bulgaria really? I didn;t think they had any oil nor any wealth oil company owners.

Friends with business in Bulgaria, do say that the corruption is still rife, possible worse than before. On the plus side, they got lots of interesting memes of the president with his gun and cash next to his bed.

Do oligarchs need oil?

Bulgarians under the Yoke of Oligarchy1
John O’ Brennan

The European Union is acknowledged as having had a transformative impact on the countries of Central and Eastern Europe which emerged as newly independent states after the fall of the Berlin Wall almost a quarter century ago. The consolidation of democratic institutions and adoption of good governance practices in the ‘new democracies’ was the key aim of the EU’s enlargement policy and this variegated framework of democracy promotion seemed to have achieved unequivocal success with the so-called ‘big bang’ accessions of 2004 and those of Bulgaria and Romania in 2007. But anybody evaluating the democratic process in Central and Eastern Europe today would have to conclude that something has gone badly wrong.

In Hungary, Victor Orban’s right-wing Fidesz government has presided over the systematic weakening of the courts, the progressive dismantling of university autonomy and engaged in endless attacks on the freedom of the press. In Romania the democratic process has been sorely tested by Prime Minister Victor Ponta’s attempts to impeach President Basescu and to curb the power and independence of the Romanian Constitutional Court. When viewed in the round these developments add up to a pattern of serious and persistent breach of European constitutional and institutional values.

But it is in Bulgaria where we find the most dramatic and systematic deviation from EU norms of democratic accountability and good governance. The Bulgarian crisis is multi-faceted and truly existential, what Edgar Morrin calls a ‘polycrisis’.2 It is simultaneously economic, demographic, institutional and social. Endemic corruption and organized crime blight Bulgaria 25 years after the end of communist rule, eroding confidence in the economy, encouraging mass migration of its citizens and delaying its entry into the EU's Schengen agreement, which allows passport-free travel between countries.

This is a world in which powerful oligarchic networks have succeeded in ‘capturing the state’: at one and the same time they dominate Bulgaria’s political parties and ruthlessly pursue their own interests, remaining hidden from any kind of public scrutiny, much less accountability or justice. Democracy in Bulgaria has for some time seemed an empty shell and political institutions devoid of any substantive role in a post-democratic regime of oligarchic privilege.

In The Strange Non-Death of neo-Liberalism Colin Crouch argues that neo-liberalism in practice, is not about free markets but the dominance exerted over public life by the ‘giant corporation’. In Bulgaria the ‘giant corporation’ is the oligarch, the sinister controlling force behind much of the economy and politics that stands between the Bulgarian state and the market. It is far more potent than both and has achieved functional dominance over both.3

For a quarter century Bulgarians have suffered under predatory and vertiginous oligarchy as deregulation, privatization and monopoly practices have enriched the ‘elect’ and utterly eroded the social contract. Corruption and the abuse of power have become so entrenched that Bulgarians profess significantly less trust in their politicians and political institutions than any other European citizenry. This unholy alliance between rapacious capitalism and unscrupulous oligarchy helped to sustain and re-produce patterns of nepotism and theft of public resources amongst the elite while condemning the majority of Bulgarians to a precarious existence characterized by low and stagnant wages and ever-increasing prices.

The Bulgarian variant of neo-liberalism thus includes not only the readily identifiable elements deemed more or less universal to the model; the relationship with oligarchy constitutes a particularistic local pathology, a unique if somewhat unacknowledged contribution to the organizational logics of renascent neo-liberal form. The state, far from representing a countervailing force to oligarchy, is comfortably accommodated within its tentacles.

....

https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/s...ew_Bulgarians_under_the_Yoke_of_Oligarchy.pdf

Foundation fellow from Bulgaria at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, has written an exhaustive account of the political, economic and media situation in his home country. His recently published research paper, entitled The Age of the Oligarchs: How a group of political and economic magnates have taken control of Bulgaria is the first attempt at a systematic review of the Bulgarian oligarchy and its role in the political and economic governance of the country.

Stefan writes: Many researchers try to answer the essential question why in Eastern Europe there are still so many underdeveloped countries. Many of them blame the weak institutions, the corruption, and the lack of legitimate representation of the public. Some call the situation in Bulgaria “state capture”, which is a form of political corruption in which private interests significantly influence a state’s decision-making processes to their own advantage. Such “state capture” can be achieved in many ways in different countries.

In my paper I try to show how this happened in Bulgaria. I point out some of the concrete weaknesses of our institutions and the mechanisms used by wealthy people to influence political and economic governance. I call these people ‘oligarchs’ and explain how exactly their influence achieves disproportionate defence of their interests at the expense of the wider public interest.

This hinders income growth, entrepreneurship and the democratic development of Bulgaria. I go further and claim that Bulgaria is now more like Russia, and this happened after it joined the European Union.

Only in this type of a country can the government publicly interfere in the free market and use all of its power to crush companies from a whole sector in order to increase the profitability of one particular company. It is not only the left-oriented parties, or the right-leaning parties. We see a political class constantly seeking ways to monetise its power with growing aspirations to interfere in the private sector.

After giving concrete cases studies of how this works, I provide a systematic review of why things go wrong and how they can be repaired. I put forward some necessary measures for strengthening Bulgaria’s institutions and the freedom of press so the media can better inform and educate the public.’

https://en.ejo.ch/media-politics/research-bulgarias-media-oligarchs

 

[ubersonic]

oligarchy in Bulgaria really? I didn;t think they had any oil nor any wealth oil company owners.

Oligarchy doesn't have anything to do with oil (aside from the three starting letters).

 

[ubersonic]

That is basically what they "would" do - reactivate the 100s (even 1000s) of older, but still serviceable, generation planes and tanks, etc. + mass conscription.

Two problems with that, firstly it's unlikely mass conscription would work in 21st century Russia, they don't idolise/fear Putin the same way they idolised/feared Stalin or the Tsar.

Secondly they don't have 1000s of anything really except rusting T-72s. Russia and the USSR are often used interchangeably as terms for simplicity but Russia was only the most populous state in the USSR, similar to how California is the most populous in the USA, they inherited more of the USSRs weapons than any other state but not the vast majority of anything, hell after the USSR fell the USA became the #1 nuclear power overnight and Ukraine became #3. Russia only have a couple of hundred old but still serviceable planes in storage and their tank situation is even worse as the USSRs best tanks were Ukrainian built not Russian built, as such they have no way to reactivate any T-64s in storage as Ukraine wouldn't send them the parts/technicians required. Add to that the T-80 was retired mainly due to it's overcomplexity and so reactivating any stored units would take a long time (probably even requiring building of a factory line to produce the parts required) and that leaves them with a handful of new T-14s and 300-400 T-90s neither which are battle tested designs as their only modern tanks. Granted they would also have 2000 T-72s however the T-72 is a 48 year old design that wasn't even that good when new as it was built as a cheaper alternative to the T-64.

The end result is that a full force Russian tank invasion of western Europe would involve around 2500 tanks (a far cry from the 10,000+ the USSR had on standby), require all those tanks to be amassed on their border first (so we would have time to prepare), have no air superiority (due to the EU having almost a 3:1 advantage in the air), and mostly involve tanks that vulnerable to a simple RPG. They would be slaughtered.

 

[4K8KW10]

I think your calculations are wrong. It doesn't work like that, especially not in 2020.

Russia has many nuclear armed missiles and heavier rockets.
Also, when a conflict is on the cards, they will retransform the manufacturing and economy to produce all the needed machinery.

Not to mention that no one is so crazy to send troops with tanks, when they can use much smarter tactics to gain access to what they need.

And the main question - what do you think Europe has that the Russians need? :laugh:
Absolutely nothing.

 

[adam cool dude]

Typical OCUK thread derailment. Turns into a jet fighter/tank nerd fest . I love this place.

 

[Rroff]

Two problems with that, firstly it's unlikely mass conscription would work in 21st century Russia, they don't idolise/fear Putin the same way they idolised/feared Stalin or the Tsar.

Secondly they don't have 1000s of anything really except rusting T-72s. Russia and the USSR are often used interchangeably as terms for simplicity but Russia was only the most populous state in the USSR, similar to how California is the most populous in the USA, they inherited more of the USSRs weapons than any other state but not the vast majority of anything, hell after the USSR fell the USA became the #1 nuclear power overnight and Ukraine became #3. Russia only have a couple of hundred old but still serviceable planes in storage and their tank situation is even worse as the USSRs best tanks were Ukrainian built not Russian built, as such they have no way to reactivate any T-64s in storage as Ukraine wouldn't send them the parts/technicians required. Add to that the T-80 was retired mainly due to it's overcomplexity and so reactivating any stored units would take a long time (probably even requiring building of a factory line to produce the parts required) and that leaves them with a handful of new T-14s and 300-400 T-90s neither which are battle tested designs as their only modern tanks. Granted they would also have 2000 T-72s however the T-72 is a 48 year old design that wasn't even that good when new as it was built as a cheaper alternative to the T-64.

The end result is that a full force Russian tank invasion of western Europe would involve around 2500 tanks (a far cry from the 10,000+ the USSR had on standby), require all those tanks to be amassed on their border first (so we would have time to prepare), have no air superiority (due to the EU having almost a 3:1 advantage in the air), and mostly involve tanks that vulnerable to a simple RPG. They would be slaughtered.

Wouldn't be so quick to write off the t-80 - initially it was a disaster but behind the headlines about the t-90 and other newer tanks they've refit something like 3000 t-80s - sure not a modern gen main battle tank but still very capable.

EDIT: Though latest news they have performance issues with the gun on the latest incarnation and issues with the missile system.

 

[4K8KW10]

Typical OCUK thread derailment. Turns into a jet fighter/tank nerd fest . I love this place.

I agree - sometimes the discussions are really good, but in this case the war games topic is not for here.
The topic is Eastern Europe with Western influence which means the eastern most EU member states, not Russia, that is in its own unions with China, India, Belarus, etc.

 

[SPG]

Your not going to solve 40 + years of oppression and corruption in 20 years. The damage was done during WW2. You have entrenched at the top a level of society that has very close ties to old regimes and all the claws that entails.

Poland is a great example you have a young generation that are reaping the benifits of EU money its the old guard running in fear. Of course they have cultural issues but the tide is turning.

 

[4K8KW10]

Well: https://www.politico.eu/article/bul...RDpe_J7fr-hh9CTpjnInn9SIKf-Dky-uVyV3OnG1bskAg

How Bulgaria became the EU’s mafia state

For two months, Bulgarians have packed the streets every night to protest that an oligarchic mafia has captured the state and extended its reach deep into institutions such as the judiciary, media and security services. They are demanding the resignations of Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and Chief Prosecutor Ivan “The Cap” Geshev.

Many Bulgarians are incensed that their prospects and those of their children are being thwarted in the EU’s poorest state, where a mafia elite acts above the law and has a stranglehold over the economy. This summer’s corruption crisis has offered startling examples of the increasing chutzpah of the oligarchs. According to recent surveys, 80 percent of Bulgarians see corruption as widespread, while more than 70 percent broadly support the protests.

Protests have become more confrontational, and police clashed with demonstrators at a “grand national uprising” last week. Another big mobilization is planned for Thursday.

Your not going to solve 40 + years of oppression and corruption in 20 years. The damage was done during WW2. You have entrenched at the top a level of society that has very close ties to old regimes and all the claws that entails.

Poland is a great example you have a young generation that are reaping the benifits of EU money its the old guard running in fear. Of course they have cultural issues but the tide is turning.

Well, the economic and political situation during the Communist rule was much, much different to what any Capitalist order can give.
During Capitalist rule, basically several mighty groups or several individuals get absolutely limitless power and money, and they begin to control everything.
This increases the GINI coefficient and the majority of people become very, extremely poor in comparison to the few oligarchs and very wealthy individuals.

The problem is that after the fall of Communism in 1989 there have been absolutely zero control about who exactly would have taken the resources (credit millionaires, for example) and built "empires" as seen today.

 

[Narj]

Edit:nvm

 

[4K8KW10]

Thanks to Clare Daly for this strong and so truthful speech today:

 

[Hagar]

The problems with all these former client states of Russia (USSR) is that there is very little history of democracy. Russia itself went from a peasant economy under the Czars to a command peasant economy under Lenin, Stalin and their successors. It still is largely a peasant economy outside of the cities. The satellite countries all relied on a strong leader with a bunch of thugs (the police) to control people. The state paid informers to turn in their neighbours and relied on fear more than anything for its success.

That was communism pre 1989 and while capitalism is not perfect either it works better in the western democracies that we have set up today. People do not fear the state. Except of course where the stables have not been cleaned out properly and we still have Bulgaria and Belarus where the old system still exists with a thin veneer of democratic elections over a police state.

 

[Belly]

I think East/West relations would be better if the West had NOT treated the Fall of the Berlin Wall/Fall of Communism as a victory for the West. It might have been better to have portrayed the fall of communism as a victory for all. It must have really miffed the East, certainly the odd ex Colonel in the KGB to be referred to as losers.

 

[Hagar]

I think East/West relations would be better if the West had NOT treated the Fall of the Berlin Wall/Fall of Communism as a victory for the West. It might have been better to have portrayed the fall of communism as a victory for all. It must have really miffed the East, certainly the odd ex Colonel in the KGB to be referred to as losers.

Well he is a bit of one.

It was right to treat it as a liberation, it was not communism or even collectivism, just a series of dictatorships imprisoning their populations. Unless you were within a select hierarchy of course.

 

[4K8KW10]

Nothing has changed. The European Commission issues statements with some remarks but no serious action on the issues.
The National governments simply ignore the European Commission or the report is so weak, to say, that they will just move on undisturbed.

Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania and others Criticized In EU Rule-Of-Law Report
https://www.rferl.org/a/hungary-bulgaria-romania-criticized-in-eu-rule-of-law-report/30866473.html

Lack of justice and media freedoms, threat for the democracy principles.

 

[Dave M]

But the EU is a union of sovereign nations isn't it? that's what remainers like to argue. Are you saying that the goals of the EU take precedence over the policies national governments are democratically elected on? it sounds to me like the EU is incompatible with the Democratic process unless a country elects one of their puppet leaders. The UK is attempting to leave and become a sovereign nation and the EU still wants to dictate how we must operate, it makes me laugh that people see the EU as anything but a kid-glove dictatorship locking countries up in legalise.

International diplomacy is no laughing matter (seriously, it's properly dull).
- UK was a major proponent of EU expansion
- The eastern European states signed international treaties, binding them to obligations in exchange for the many benefits of the EU club.
- Only banana republics renege on international treaties willy-nilly. Any state in the EU can follow the UK out of the EU whenever they like.

Brexit is already an old war, you're fighting ghosts - It's time to stop gloating and build for the future.

 

[4K8KW10]

International diplomacy is no laughing matter (seriously, it's properly dull).
- UK was a major proponent of EU expansion
- The eastern European states signed international treaties, binding them to obligations in exchange for the many benefits of the EU club.
- Only banana republics renege on international treaties willy-nilly. Any state in the EU can follow the UK out of the EU whenever they like.

Brexit is already an old war, you're fighting ghosts - It's time to stop gloating and build for the future.

True.

But for the "banana republics" the EU is an opportunity to develop into normal, right and prosperous states, they don't want to.