Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)

Will Gill · 30 Sep 2020 at 19:58

dowie said:
Wait - is that just some pattern of behaviour you've noticed or is that an actual restriction someone in the mod team has come up with for his account?

Very much the former, although there might be a way to achieve the latter

dowie · 30 Sep 2020 at 20:53

Will Gill said:
Very much the former, although there might be a way to achieve the latter

Haha, that would be evil "you have been restricted to posting between 8-10am on weekdays"

nemofoot · 1 Oct 2020 at 15:44

i tried doing it and did it on all the big sites and only made about £50 doing it? after you go through all the big names you have to do bad offers where you make an account, deposit money, do qualifier, get your free bet, place it and you might get a fiver out of it. some sites also make you download their app and others make it so you have to put qualifying bet on accumulators which prevents you from doing it.

it seems to be in its dying throes tbh, i think the bookies have all caught on and now its a lot of work to go through to get a fiver

Outcast440 · 2 Oct 2020 at 08:12

Simon said:
Reload offers.

Real money bet is a qualifier so regardless of outcome you only lose a few pence.

I'm talking about the matched part - ie. where you match it on an exchange.
If you win the free bet then you have to lose the exchange bet - hence evens. No gain.

Simon · 2 Oct 2020 at 08:14

Outcast440 said:
I'm talking about the matched part - ie. where you match it on an exchange.
If you win the free bet then you have to lose the exchange bet - hence evens. No gain.

For example ? I don’t understand what you mean

Outcast440 · 2 Oct 2020 at 08:20

Basic example.

Exchange Back odds :Aston Villa (2.0) v Sheff Utd (3.0)
Exchange Lay odds: Aston Villa (2.1) v Sheff Utd (3.1)

1.Back Aston Villa £10 on betting site (free bet) odds: 2.0
2. Lay Aston Villa on exchange, £10 (real money) odds: 2.1

If Villa win you are £1 down
If Villa lose then free bet gone down. No gain/loss

Diddums · 2 Oct 2020 at 08:47

Outcast440 said:
Basic example.

Exchange Back odds :Aston Villa (2.0) v Sheff Utd (3.0)
Exchange Lay odds: Aston Villa (2.1) v Sheff Utd (3.1)

1.Back Aston Villa £10 on betting site (free bet) odds: 2.0
2. Lay Aston Villa on exchange, £10 (real money) odds: 2.1

If Villa win you are £1 down
If Villa lose then free bet gone down. No gain/loss

Phew. Thank goodness you cleared that up, we've been wondering for nine years and five thousand posts in this thread.

booyaka · 2 Oct 2020 at 09:04

booyaka said:
Well first monthly update - not much around this time before the season restarts again. Laying the draw.

However - I'm down 0.25 points....3 good wins, 1 loss - Silly from me as I was unable to watch the game/updates and forgot to set my out (normally around 70 minutes) if looking like a draw I usually trade out. Season starts this month so more opportunities to get stuck into it.

Monthly update - September.

Despite football back - not many matches actually made the grade for my process.

5 matches - bizarrely 3 on the same day.....And all 3 lost :rolleyes:

(traded out of 1 game to reduce my loss on laying the draw, and of course home team scored in the 89th minute so it ended 1-0)

2 other winners.

So down 5.3 points in September. Running total of -5.5 points after betfair comm.

Long term game - not that bothered.

topgun06 · 2 Oct 2020 at 09:07

Outcast440 said:
Basic example.

Exchange Back odds :Aston Villa (2.0) v Sheff Utd (3.0)
Exchange Lay odds: Aston Villa (2.1) v Sheff Utd (3.1)

1.Back Aston Villa £10 on betting site (free bet) odds: 2.0
2. Lay Aston Villa on exchange, £10 (real money) odds: 2.1

If Villa win you are £1 down
If Villa lose then free bet gone down. No gain/loss

Such a bad example. When using a free bet you should use odds of at least 5 to maximise the returns. And you wouldn't lay exactly £10 either.

Place £10 free bet on Ascot 13:15, ThreeLegs @ 10.0
Lay £9 at the exchange @ 10.0

Horse loses then +£9 at the exchange
Horse wins then +£90 at the bookie and -£81 at the exchange so up £9 overall.

Simon · 2 Oct 2020 at 09:50

topgun06 said:
Such a bad example. When using a free bet you should use odds of at least 5 to maximise the returns. And you wouldn't lay exactly £10 either.

Place £10 free bet on Ascot 13:15, ThreeLegs @ 10.0
Lay £9 at the exchange @ 10.0

Horse loses then +£9 at the exchange
Horse wins then +£90 at the bookie and -£81 at the exchange so up £9 overall.

Exactly, you need to understand what you are doing.

Simon · 2 Oct 2020 at 09:51

Outcast440 said:
Basic example.

Exchange Back odds :Aston Villa (2.0) v Sheff Utd (3.0)
Exchange Lay odds: Aston Villa (2.1) v Sheff Utd (3.1)

1.Back Aston Villa £10 on betting site (free bet) odds: 2.0
2. Lay Aston Villa on exchange, £10 (real money) odds: 2.1

If Villa win you are £1 down
If Villa lose then free bet gone down. No gain/loss

Laying Villa £4.81 @ 2.1 would lock in £4.71 regardless of outcome from a £10 free bet.

Outcast440 · 2 Oct 2020 at 14:17

topgun06 said:
Such a bad example. When using a free bet you should use odds of at least 5 to maximise the returns. And you wouldn't lay exactly £10 either.

Place £10 free bet on Ascot 13:15, ThreeLegs @ 10.0
Lay £9 at the exchange @ 10.0

Horse loses then +£9 at the exchange
Horse wins then +£90 at the bookie and -£81 at the exchange so up £9 overall.

That's far too optomistic!

This is because you will virtually never get 10.0 at a regular bookmaker and then also get 10.0 for the lay on an exchange.

For example, today's football match PSG v Angers - win odds for Angers are 23.0 at Ladbrokes, but 32.0 if you want to lay it at Betfair.

That's a huge difference, and will eat into your already meagre profits.

Outcast440 · 2 Oct 2020 at 14:20

Simon said:
Laying Villa £4.81 @ 2.1 would lock in £4.71 regardless of outcome from a £10 free bet.

Yes, but you have to factor in that you have already staked £10 to qualify for your free bet.

Backing that up with a matched bet on an exchange will again decrease your overall profit depending on the outcome.

So, your £4.71 example could easily end up around the £2.50 mark or less.

And then what?

It's not like you could just keep on doing it.

This system is basically a one-trick pony!

200sols · 2 Oct 2020 at 14:24

I dont think you understand what you are talking about TBH.

Diddums · 2 Oct 2020 at 15:32

Outcast440 said:
Yes, but you have to factor in that you have already staked £10 to qualify for your free bet.

Backing that up with a matched bet on an exchange will again decrease your overall profit depending on the outcome.

So, your £4.71 example could easily end up around the £2.50 mark or less.

And then what?

It's not like you could just keep on doing it.

This system is basically a one-trick pony!

topgun06 · 2 Oct 2020 at 15:42

Outcast440 said:
That's far too optomistic!

This is because you will virtually never get 10.0 at a regular bookmaker and then also get 10.0 for the lay on an exchange.

For example, today's football match PSG v Angers - win odds for Angers are 23.0 at Ladbrokes, but 32.0 if you want to lay it at Betfair.

That's a huge difference, and will eat into your already meagre profits.

I used odds of 10.0 to make it simpler to understand.

You'd still make £6.80 using your Angers example there.

Okay, so let's look at some real life odds then.

Betfair Sportsbook
Fontwell 15:55
Back £10 free bet on Moonlit Sea @ 10.0

Smarkets
Lay £8.18 Moonlit Sea @11.0

Bet wins you're up £8.20
Bet loses you're up £8.18

dowie · 2 Oct 2020 at 15:49

Sigh... I did point this out to him earlier:

dowie said:
Nope, there is free money available - you can try to win that free money by just playing the offer (in the long run this is more profitable but allows for short term losses/swings) or you can use exchanges to hedge your bets and lock in that free money (albeit for a price - crossing the spread and paying commission) - how you structure that hedge is up to you but typically it is structured so you take a neutral position towards the result. Of course in the long run hedging or matched betting is less profitable than just playing the offers (if this isn't immediately obvious to people it will become apparent when they've done lots of it and note their negative exchange balance) but it's attractive to most people as the cost to lock in the profits isn't seen as being too high and they're generally risk averse, dislike gambling or taking risk etc..

Street · 2 Oct 2020 at 21:23

Outcast440 said:
Yes, but you have to factor in that you have already staked £10 to qualify for your free bet.

Backing that up with a matched bet on an exchange will again decrease your overall profit depending on the outcome.

So, your £4.71 example could easily end up around the £2.50 mark or less.

And then what?

It's not like you could just keep on doing it.

This system is basically a one-trick pony!

A very lucrative one trick pony, although the offers aren't as good as they used to be a few years ago. Generally your qualifying bets wouldn't cost you much and you would look to lock in around 75-80% on the free bet.

Simon · 2 Oct 2020 at 22:44

Outcast440 said:
Yes, but you have to factor in that you have already staked £10 to qualify for your free bet.

Backing that up with a matched bet on an exchange will again decrease your overall profit depending on the outcome.

So, your £4.71 example could easily end up around the £2.50 mark or less.

And then what?

It's not like you could just keep on doing it.

This system is basically a one-trick pony!

That match you selected was literally the worse way to use a free bet.

Mattus · 2 Oct 2020 at 22:57

Outcast440 said:
That's far too optomistic!

This is because you will virtually never get 10.0 at a regular bookmaker and then also get 10.0 for the lay on an exchange.

For example, today's football match PSG v Angers - win odds for Angers are 23.0 at Ladbrokes, but 32.0 if you want to lay it at Betfair.

Sure you will get 10/10. Easy on horses or football correct score markets, or even match odds if you look carefully. You just have to take your time. You wouldn't take 23/32, it's throwing profit away needlessly.

If you are going to do matched betting then you need to do more reading.