My Official £50-£46,000 betting challenge

robfosters · 28 Dec 2011 at 00:10

divaboy said:
You've all forgotten one thing ........ Bookies/casinos never lose.

It's Betfair. Their not bookies

Psycho Sonny · 28 Dec 2011 at 00:16

robfosters said:
No chance.

really if there was no chance, then every person on the planet would be betting all they had on it.

your an idiot if you think there is no chance of it happening, there is always a chance.

im willing to bet you £50 that you fail to reach this £46K mark

peterattheboro · 28 Dec 2011 at 00:21

divaboy said:
You've all forgotten one thing ........ Bookies/casinos never lose.

My Dad always says that and then I showed him the £130 I won.

(And I've bet less than that in total

)

Jimbeam3678 · 28 Dec 2011 at 00:34

robfosters said:
It's Betfair. Their not bookies

So in that case your betting against a multitude of bookies off setting their liabilities

peterattheboro said:
My Dad always says that and then I showed him the £130 I won.

(And I've bet less than that in total )

So far..........

Don't get me wrong I love a bet , but I'm under no illusion bookies will always win in the long run.

Have a google about how bookies offset liabilities interesting read.

touch · 28 Dec 2011 at 00:50

andy_mk3 said:
but if it's so easy then surely more people would be doing this?

The problem is not with the logic of the OP. The problem is that, until you start to accumulate a lot of money to place on the bets, you dont get a very big return.

Start with £10 and you only place bets at 1.03 or less.
If it takes you 5mins to log into the website and make your bet, the return on your time is less than half of minimum wage.
Obviously the return increases as you build up more money to put on each bet.
I think, statistically, the maximum you could make from your £10 starter would be around £180.

Fuzz · 28 Dec 2011 at 00:54

robfosters said:
At the weekend I will be embarking on a gambling challenge that I have been told about.

The aim is simple.

Each day, I will pick 3 bets which have prices of 1.02. Extremely low odds which really should be coming in every single time without fail.

I'll put my whole bank (starting at £50) on each one. Basically if this is done every day for 16 weeks, the £50 will become £46,000.

Sounds easy....probably isn't. There are a few hazards.

1. Although 1.02 shots come in 99% of the time, like anything, they can fail. However, the chance is rare. For example, a game at 0-0 at half time will have odds of 1.03 for their to be 4 goals or less in the second half. Very likely to come in.

2. Courage. If I get to £10k+, will I have the guts to stick it all on for a profit of £200. I will wait and see. I can't say until I get there.

3. Liquidity. Sometimes, particularly towards the end, the money wont be available in betfair on one bet. I may have to end up splitting it between different bets. So my 3 bets a day may have to turn into 9 or so.

I'm gonna give it a go as I have nothing better to do. I'll update this post periodically for anyone interested to show how i'm getting on.

Rob

Why not have "bank/split" points to increase the likelyhood of holding onto your winnings.
Get to 5K and split the sums into 2 channels of 2.5K each
If one channel ***** out, you save the day with the other but backtrace yourself to your last bank point

lego · 28 Dec 2011 at 00:59

looking forward to see how this goes. Good luck!

robfosters · 28 Dec 2011 at 01:01

Scubascorpion said:
Why not have "bank/split" points to increase the likelyhood of holding onto your winnings.
Get to 5K and split the sums into 2 channels of 2.5K each
If one channel ***** out, you save the day with the other but backtrace yourself to your last bank point

That's a fine idea.

Twinblade · 28 Dec 2011 at 09:50

Good luck with your challenge. An ex-work colleague of mine did something similar, but on a smaller scale last season.

He would put £50 on 1 result on the football, usually the favourite, and then repeat this daily. Once he had hit £250 he kept £50 back incase he needed to start again. He was over £1,000 when he left the company, so don't know how far he went.

Be good if you posted the chosen bets daily.

Skull · 28 Dec 2011 at 09:54

You can happily make quite a decent sum of money doing this, as long as you absolutely insist on only the safest-looking bets and don't go above your prescribed odds. In your OP you mentioned 1.02, now you've mentioned 1.03... you really must stick to it.

That was my downfall!

piggeh · 28 Dec 2011 at 10:18

There's always these threads on the betfair forum. Most of them fail. I think I've seen two people actually reach the end target in a £100 - £10k challenge.

Saying that, I'm tempted to do one

Swordfish · 28 Dec 2011 at 10:23

Interesting, but winning 336 consecutive bets, even dead certs, is very unlikely, but the best of luck.

Twinblade · 28 Dec 2011 at 10:47

The well publicised dead cert man only managed 26 I think, so it would be some feat if achieved.

Russinating · 28 Dec 2011 at 10:57

It won't work because there's always a chance of the unlikely happening, no matter how unlikely it may seem, and one incorrect bet wipes out a huge amount of correct ones due to the low odds.

A £50 bet would return £1 at odds of 1.02. One incorrect bet would wipe out 50 correct ones.

If it did work then people and companies would do it as a genuine way to generate cash, betting multiples of 1000s in a day.

Elixir · 28 Dec 2011 at 11:51

As has been said, the only way this will work is if you get extremely lucky, as with all gambling "techniques".

Best of luck though.

booyaka · 28 Dec 2011 at 12:28

Right

Target is 3% per day increase in bank - single bet per day. (i.e bets of around 1.03/1.04)

£10 starter for me

1st bet on now

Hong Kong v Guangdong - Over/Under 4.5 Goals (game is in play 0-0 after 30 mins)

£10 on @ 1.04.

jaybee · 28 Dec 2011 at 12:39

What a waste of your life though. Waiting weeks and weeks for it to fail - which it will.

booyaka · 28 Dec 2011 at 12:46

jaybee said:
What a waste of your life though. Waiting weeks and weeks for it to fail - which it will.

thanks for your positive input! :rolleyes:

It's a bit of fun - hardly a waste of my life - about 1 min per day

touch · 28 Dec 2011 at 12:47

touch said:
Start with £10 and you only place bets at 1.03 or less.
If it takes you 5mins to log into the website and make your bet, the return on your time is less than half of minimum wage.

Been thinking about this some more and i realise that i have been approaching it the wrong way.
If you do this purely as a way to make money, then the quote above applies.
However, if you approach this as paying for entertainment value (the same way as you put 50p in a pool table or something) then it might work out at good value. I expect to lose all of the money i put into this, but i expect to get a fair bit of excitement out of it, so lets give it a go.

I have put £10 into my account and i will bet half of my account total each day.
Today, i have put £5 on Galatasaray Under 18s to beat Korfez Belediyespor Under 18s. Odds were 1.04 when i placed the bet (Galatasaray were winning 1-0).

wozza2k · 28 Dec 2011 at 13:03

Hmmm I am interested in doing this myself now. I personally would diversify the risk so instead of betting 50% of the bank roll on a bet, do multiple bets of say a max of £50 a time once the bank roll is decent