My Official £50-£46,000 betting challenge

[sloth]

I'm in, sounds like a fun way to waste a few minutes at night trying to see how far you can stretch your initial deposit.

Signed up and deposited £12 yesterday, have never used a betting site before. After fumbling around for 15 minutes or so I played it safe and threw it at a series of random stuff with stupidly low odds. Darts, amateur turkish football, scottish football, anything goes.

Start: £12.00
Current: £15.91 (+32%)

I give it 2 days before I lose it all.

 

[touch]

He stuck a fiver on Galatasary under 18s to win.

I did, but that one came in.

I then did the same again on some random portugese football.
The strong favourite was 2-0 up at half time. I put the bet on just after half time with odds of 1.02, the other team then scored twice >.<

It's my own fault really, i was a bit fixated on the odds rather than betting on something which i have a bit more knowledge about.

Oh well, lesson learnt, and i still have a fiver left

 

[touch]

Can anyone work out the odds of getting 300 bets right consecutively at odds of 1.02?

There is a 2% chance of losing @ 1.02
So, out of the 300 bets, you should lose 6 times.
...i think?

 

[Jokester]

Might be wrong with this as it's a long time since I did statistics.

But the odds of wining 300 bets at a 0.98 chance of winning per bet is 0.98^300 = 0.23% of winning all the bets, so 1 in 500 chance give or take.

 

[Hxc]

The likelihood of the sequence occurring is that, yes, but the likelihood of each individual bet winning is very high.

I have done this before with some success, but only ever made about £20 before I got bored.

Started yesterday again with a tenner and am up to £17.50. It's all about under 5.5 and 6.5 goals while in play, imho.

 

[robfosters]

If you bet with Betfair, particularly in the total goals markets, you can lay your bets off if it looks like it's going wrong. At least you can then recoup a fair chunk of stake money rather than losing the lot. It might then take you an extra week or so to hit your target, but it's better than no chance at all.

I was speaking to a regular betfair gambler today. He told me that the 46k target is virtually impossible. However, he runs 2 banks. He varies the bets on each bank. However, one bank is left to run to see how far it gets towards the 365 bet target (46k) as it accelerates rapidly towards the end. The other bank has it's profits withdrawn regularly. He tries to do around 6 bets a day. This gets him to 5k in 40 days. He then withdraws £4950 and starts again.

He said this year he has not reached the 46k target once. However he has reached 5k 3 times. A 15k return can't be argued with.

If I am lucky enough to reach 5k, I will withdraw and do the same as him.

 

[Clipsey]

In on this
Sounds like a bit of harmless fun, which gambling is really. The trouble will be once the money starts getting interesting. I know I certainly wouldn't have the stones to put a $10k bet in the hope of winning $100 lol
Good luck OP, keep us updated.
Surely you could do this in a much shorter space of time, no? Just keep placing bet after bet?

 

[robfosters]

Surely you could do this in a much shorter space of time, no? Just keep placing bet after bet?

You could, but you would end up just searching for the right prices and lumping on blind. Bad move. Only bet what you know about.

Bloke on betfair done his bank tonight laying Hamilton to beat Chisnall 4-0 in the darts. Idiotic. Never lay straight sets victories in darts unless the likes of Taylor or Wade involved. Then obviously lay their oppo to win in straight sets.

I still maintain goals markets are the best for this. I would like to know statistically, when a match is 0-0 at half time, what are the likelihood of there being 5 goals in the second half.

EDIT: just checked the prem and there have been no games this year where a HT 0-0 has had 5 second half goals. Couple of 4 goalers involving Man City, but I would stay away from them anyway as they have the ability to turn it on and knock in 4 goals in 30 minutes.

 

[booyaka]

The likelihood of the sequence occurring is that, yes, but the likelihood of each individual bet winning is very high.

I have done this before with some success, but only ever made about £20 before I got bored.

Started yesterday again with a tenner and am up to £17.50. It's all about under 5.5 and 6.5 goals while in play, imho.

you must have mad loads of bets to reach 75% increase in your bank in a day!!!!!

The idea of this thread was to be slow and steady picking a single or couple of bets per day.

 

[booyaka]

Under 5.5 /6.5 is usually the route I take as well

There was 6 games last season out of 380 last season where there was more than 6.5 goals.

Of these Man Utd were involved in 3 of them, so really taking them out there was 3 games out of 342 which is 0.0088% chance of this happening.

Finding odd of 1.03 etc "should" be the statistical advantage needed but we all know that this is not always the case or everyone would be doing it!!!

 

[Montala]

I know this will sound like a silly question to those who do this sort of thing regularly, but what is meant by 5.5 goals please?

Is it another way of saying five and a half goals, and if so, how can you have half a goal?... or does it mean a final score (draw) of 5:5... or something else altogether?

 

[touch]

I'm not entirely sure, but i think it's just to make over/under bets more clear.

If you bet there will be over 2 goals scored and it ends 1-1, exactly 2 goals have been scored so it could be a little unclear if you have won or not.
By having the .5 there, you will never get the exact number of goals scored, so it's a little easier to work out.

 

[Montala]

Thanks... that makes sense.

So it in effect refers to the total number of goals scored in any one game, and I can now see that having something like that in place does indeed make things clearer!

 

[touch]

So it in effect refers to the total number of goals scored in any one game

Yes, usually if someone says they have put a bet on "over 2.5 goals" they mean total goals scored in the game.
You can also bet on any breakdown of the goals as well though:
total goals per team
total goals per half
total goals per half per team
etc

 

[booyaka]

I know this will sound like a silly question to those who do this sort of thing regularly, but what is meant by 5.5 goals please?

Is it another way of saying five and a half goals, and if so, how can you have half a goal?... or does it mean a final score (draw) of 5:5... or something else altogether?

as below

It refers to the total goals in a game.

So basically there is always a winner and a loser there is no "draw" possible.

You are always under or over 5.5. so 3-2 is under but 3-3 is over.

 

[fozzybear]

Can anyone work out the odds of getting 300 bets right consecutively at odds of 1.02?

I've just done a quick calculation (it's probably wrong though) and a £10 accumulator on 300 x 1.02 (1-50) shots works out as 3819.50.

So in odds, that's around 381-1.

As I say though, I'm probably way off.

 

[oddjob62]

Might be wrong with this as it's a long time since I did statistics.

But the odds of wining 300 bets at a 0.98 chance of winning per bet is 0.98^300 = 0.23% of winning all the bets, so 1 in 500 chance give or take.

Sounds about right (also using rusty stats), i got 0.262%

Good luck guys. Interesting nontheless

 

[cram]

I've just done a quick calculation (it's probably wrong though) and a £10 accumulator on 300 x 1.02 (1-50) shots works out as 3819.50.

So in odds, that's around 381-1.

As I say though, I'm probably way off.

You are assuming that betting odds are statistical odds which they are not. Bookies manipulate odds for their own purposes.

 

[mmj_uk]

Even if you only bet on 1.01 odds you'll lose eventually and get wiped out.

 

[fozzybear]

You are assuming that betting odds are statistical odds which they are not. Bookies manipulate odds for their own purposes.

I presumed Skull was asking what the accumulative odds for 300 bets @ 1.02 was.

I probably misunderstood.