nVidia buying Mental Ray to me says that they're doing R&D on rendering on the GPU using compute shaders.
They are.
Shader 'fragment' programs are basically massively parallel computations. The main instruction in a GPU is result:=A*B+C (multiply-and-add). Except you provide 2D textures to it. The real way this is done is that you load your X,Y,Z into the R,G,B of the pixel as non-IEEE single point floating 'clamped' numbers 0.0 to 1.0. Although double point or extended point (IEEE) is was really required for the main applications such as computation rather than games. Also when double did appear it was 1/2 the speed..
For example - an old X1950XTX 512MB GDDR5 card can process 120GB/sec of data with multiply and add. Why is this important/useful? Well it's a dot product, it's a matrix multiplication... The slow part in a GPU is the offloading via PCI-E to the memory at 1-2GB/sec because the upload game textures was historically more important than the offload into main memory hence offload being much slower.. Memory is about 12GB/sec.. Add to that the GPU could only upload/download whilst the card was not actually processing/rendering meant there were some hard changes required in the GPU memory controller to get the system actually working efficiently.
The new 'compute' cards will be quicker as the hardware is evolving to support the requirements of compute rather than games. Hence Fermi's support of double fp and proper IEEE error handling.
Apple have Renderman, so it will be interesting to see nVidia's choice in creating nV only software to create rendering cross swords with their GPU client.. I would suspect that nV are producing a portfolio of GPU-enabled products, starting with this because it'll be of use to game studios... if they decide to go with nV for their product.
Don't make the mistake - there IS a compute market out there. Especially as the basic x86 desktop machine has really reached it's limit and HD/3D is creating a multimedia processing void. I think the mistake is the over estimation of gamers wanting to be tied to nVidia to play their games because all the technology in the game requires nVidia hardware. That's too much of a lock in - in fact it smacks of nVidia producing it's own games console for the mass market and then using the same technology for high power computing applications.
So what does everyone thing the nV console will be called?
nV, nX720/1080, ..