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Nvidia stock downgraded, shares fall. Fermi at fault?

Soldato
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4 Feb 2006
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Sorry but i don't agree with that, take a look through all the benchmarks here:

http://www.anandtech.com/show/2848/1

Just skimming over the review, i can't see anywhere that the 5850 is twice as fast as a 4870, in fact most of the time it's significantly less than that, even at very high resolution settings.

sorry my bad...I should have said 4850. I read some reviews quite a while ago and got mixed up about which card I was talking about.

The 4850 is about £80 now so a card twice as fast should be doubling to £160...
It this case the 5850 is indeed quite a bit overpriced....:eek:
 
Associate
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Also having read through most of this thread now I am amazed that some people think ATi will not royally make us all pay for NVIDIA's arrogance as I think the sweet spot strategy was a master stroke and it will only pay dividends for us consumers should there be an equally strong competitor, if NVIDIA do go the way of 3Dfx our wallets I am sure will all be in trouble...

J.

100% agreed, personally i am more excited about Larrabee than anything ATI/Nvidia are working on. As long as they have the software in good shape when it launches it could be the best thing to happen in years to shake the market up.

A duopoly situation can work, but it can also be just as destructive as a monopoly. When competition stagnates, or the two companies decide to fix prices like they did before, you can bet the end user is the only one who really loses out.
 
Associate
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A duopoly situation can work, but it can also be just as destructive as a monopoly. When competition stagnates, or the two companies decide to fix prices like they did before, you can bet the end user is the only one who really loses out.

Yep, got to agree with this too, it would be great to have more than just the two players, being a bit of an old fart I can remember the Matrox Parhelia and S3 Savage and Savage4 and can still remember all the drooling that ensued when I dropped my Guillemot 4mb 3Dfx card in and played TombRaider, wow! but I diverse.

Haven't really followed what Intel are doing with LB but it would sure be good to get it out, if I were in Intel's shoes I would concentrate on getting something out that is price competitive and give a good foundation going forward, forget the high end and start the ball rolling, with their manufacturing capabilities and possible process advantage they may be able to ramp up whilst at the same time refining their software and getting themselves out there in peoples mindsets.

J.
 
Associate
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100% agreed, personally i am more excited about Larrabee than anything ATI/Nvidia are working on. As long as they have the software in good shape when it launches it could be the best thing to happen in years to shake the market up.
But Intel has given up its mainstream ambitions for Larrabee, so the landscape will remain the same for some time to come. However, hopefully we'll see Intel enter the fray at some point as it will only help adherence to standards.
 
Associate
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I think its a good thing prices for the 5 series were high to begin with (except for the 5450, which i have always thought to be a rip off). AMD (hence ATI) need a bit of money. however, its been 6 months and competition or not, prices need to start coming down.

Theres taking advantage of supply/demand, and theres just abusing supply/demand
 
Associate
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But Intel has given up its mainstream ambitions for Larrabee, so the landscape will remain the same for some time to come. However, hopefully we'll see Intel enter the fray at some point as it will only help adherence to standards.

They were originally going to launch Larrabee as a consumer product at the end of last year, but they cancelled that plan. Larrabee is already in the hands of Intel partner developers though and has been for a while.

When they announced the cancellation of V.1 for the consumer market, they said they will make further comment about it this year, so hopefully it's not too far off.
 
Soldato
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I think its a good thing prices for the 5 series were high to begin with (except for the 5450, which i have always thought to be a rip off). AMD (hence ATI) need a bit of money. however, its been 6 months and competition or not, prices need to start coming down.

Theres taking advantage of supply/demand, and theres just abusing supply/demand

Retailers and distributors have a say in the way prices are set as much as the manufacturer. Learn this.
 

tbh

tbh

Associate
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Tbh if Intel decided to jump into the fully blown high end GPU market they could come out with a Real decent product... but bah they wont

Bright Side of News wrote an excellent and very in-depth article about Larrabee called "An Inconvenient Truth: Intel Larrabee story revealed", if you are interested in reading more about Intels GPU efforts I highly recommend it.
 
Associate
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I can almost gaurante Intel will not be selling Larrabe as a GPU, but as a compute device. Larrabe will just suck as a graphics card, it's why they never brought the V.1 out. It's probably in the hands of partners to see how it's scientific computing capabilities stack up.
 
Soldato
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Nvidia have been losing a lot of contracts in the mobile market. Samsung recently just swapped from Nivida to PowerVR. Nvidia seemed to invest a lot in the mobile market and they are failing which might explain the share drop.
 
Associate
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Saw this and thought of this thread

http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/18814/1/

shares still down at lowest in just over a year, but recovering.

Interesting to see nvidia post such good financials bring that their revenue suffered due to fermi. Now production is in full swing, will we see a good rise in recovery of their shares?

Either way, I still find it hard to belive all the red crowd saying nvidia were going to collapse. Let's hope they don't do gfx card prices get back to a bit more normal!!!
 
Caporegime
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Things must be going great for Nvidia, rather than a dual 480gtx, they are basically releasing...... a dual 5770 type card, a dual midrange card that well, other than 1gb mem and 256mbit bus we don't know much about, it will almost certainly be lower shader count than the 465gtx, but mayber higher clocks, either way its going to be quite a lot slower than a 5830 per core.

As for shares recovering, they aren't, they've been pretty much crashing in the past month as most of the tech industry pretty much has done with BP/Goldman killing the US stockmarket.

LIkewise, their numbers((Fudzilla) are such utter poop, the same quarter last year was recession numbers basically. The growth from Q1 last year, to Q1 this year, was some 100-120% for AMD and Intel, the very least the numbers should be over Q1/q2 last year to q1/q2 this year is 50%, really should be quite a bit higher. Nvidia also had some one off payments made in these quarters last year hence the big loss, coupled with awful sales due to sales beginning of last year being terrible all around the tech industry.


AS for THe red crowd saying Nvidia will collapse, they likely will, as said those financials(from Nvidia's most biased site) are incredibly misleading, both AMD/Intel have sales and profits in over 100% higher than the same time last year, 50% increase is bad. THe 100% increase for AMD/Intel is really just pushing the numbers up to what they were selling BEFORE the recession, not showing massive growth, just getting back to normal.

Nvidia has by every measure lost market share heavily in the past 18 months.

Their most profitable segment is still low end, and that production was NOT interputed while Fermi wasn't being made.

The people saying Nvidia are screwed in the future is, the thing thats kept Nvidia profitable, the low end and nothing but the low end, is literally a dead market that they can't compete in. AMD and Intel are moving to intergrated low end gpu's in EVERY chip they make within a year or two, at which point Nvidia's low end sales will drop from 60% of their revenue to, pretty much as good as 0%.

Name a company that won't be in dire trouble when 60% of their sales dissappear, because I can't think of one. ANy sane person reading the situation said Nvidia were in trouble IN THE FUTURE and NOT over Fermi. I've specifically stated MANY times that Fermi is almost irrelevant to Nvidia right now, profits come from the low and somewhat mid end, high end means not much at all. Its the same reason AMD didn't suffer in the slightest when the 2900xt was late, it still had VERY strong mid and lowend cards selling by the millions, as do Nvidia right now.

Fermi is NOT the reason people are predicting Nvidia's demise, because it has smeg all to do with it. Fermi's low end derivitives will hurt Nvidia's bottom end, its highly likely their low end Fermi will be much bigger than their current low end last gen with dx10.1 botched on.

So new low end, will be bigger, with a little lower yields(not much) but have to sell in the same price bracket, that means less profits per sale on cores with a very tight profit margin to start with.
 
Associate
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This is exactly what was said of ATI when the 8800 Series cards launched.

The 2900 series from ATI was not as good, and people predicted that ATI would not live long.

+ 1, totally agree.

Never ceases to amaze me how some people seem to have such concise insights on the inner financial workings of Nvidia.

I think its fair to say they they havent played their cards right lately (joke), but usually tough times will bring about change for the better.
 
Associate
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Funny thread. Seems none of us really have any clue! NV won't die, that's just doom mongering. As someone said, there have been many times in ATI and AMDs history where they have looked almost dead, but guess what? They didn't die, shocker!

NV will be fine. Things change and companies adapt. Besides, the fermi architecture was a long term plan.

Indeed, Nv won't disappear. Most here are just kidding themselves on and clearly talking gob****e on the matter.
 
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Associate
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Drunkmaster, your speaking comes across very ill informed, biased and with a lot of hate frankly fella. Check out the share prices and you will see this news has boosted the share price. Of course the markets have changed a lot, but I still don't see any good reasoning in your post for you to conclude that nvidia are still in dire trouble.

More evidence to backup your claims that nvidia will fail please, rather than just speculation. Cheers
 
Soldato
Joined
17 Nov 2005
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3,583
Look where amd and intel are moving with their cpu/gpu in the same packet maybe nvidia will not vanish but i do think they will have a hard time of it in the low end and laptops sections.

Drunkmaster could be painting more break future for nvidia than it will be but i do think they will be hurting in the future.

added :- it will depend on price if the cpu/gpu cost to much then they will not do well as oem's will more likely go for the cheapest parts
 
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