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*** Official Bitcoin Price Discussion Thread ***

Discussion in 'Crypto Currency & Mining' started by morguk, 28 Dec 2016.

  1. Mercenary Keyboard Warrior

    Capodecina

    Joined: 4 Aug 2007

    Posts: 12,483

    Location: Wilds of suffolk

    Its hard to know specifically what being legalised means in El Salvador since the $ (US) is their national currency

    Making BTC legal I suspect doesnt mean someone has to use it, or accept it or anything else
    I suspect it means that they will treat it as having dual currencies and as such you may get either or both.

    For example in the UK BTC is legal tender but its not recognised. So if you buy something in BTC the shop would have to convert it back in to FIAT (GBP) in order to say what price you had paid and deal with taxes and profits and statutory bodies /filings accordingly.

    What is possible is that El Salvador will allow say payment in $ and BTC and when people do taxes and make payments and shops pay, make payments, declare profits etc they can do in either or both depending what the recipient is willing to accept.

    From what I can tell its not replacing the dollar but will sit with equal recognition.
     
  2. Rex-Kramer

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 13 Nov 2003

    Posts: 1,879

    Location: Chester

    So are we going for the Thursday sell and Sunday buy weekly Merry go round?
     
  3. lanzarobbie

    Hitman

    Joined: 10 May 2009

    Posts: 787

    I have.
     
  4. SlyReaper

    Soldato

    Joined: 26 Apr 2008

    Posts: 6,583

    Location: Bristol, Old Blighty

    I wish. If that were true, we wouldn't have to pay capital gains tax on it.
     
  5. dowie

    Capo Crimine

    Joined: 29 Jan 2008

    Posts: 52,028

    In reality, it isn't necessarily that even - a portion of it is just subjective stuff which can mostly be ignored, not falsifiable or testable in the first place. Other stuff can be tested but often isn't found to be of much use...

    Look at, for example, Bollinger Bands, this is the description from Murphy's book, often referred to as the "bible" of technical analysis:

    [​IMG]

    This is flawed for a few reasons - an obvious one to point out is that you can't just assume a Gaussian distribution - in reality, financial time series data, crypto, commodities, will fall outside these bands rather more than 5% of the time!

    The Murphy book doesn't provide any commentary on the flaws, it's just presented uncritically along with everything else in the book.

    I'd not rubbish the idea that people can find an edge from price data alone or price and volume data alone but most of TA simpy isn't very rigorous, it's basically statistics made easy for lazy/innumerate people.

    People who genuinely do have an edge or some system for beating the market tend to just exploit that edge themselves rather than promote it as some scheme on twitter etc..
     
  6. Hodders

    Mobster

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 4,453

    Location: Riding my bike

    TA is not about predicting price movements perfectly, it is simply about giving the trader an edge. I know nothing about TA, but my degree had a big stats element.

    If I came up with a system that could give me a 1% edge in predicting heads or tails, over enough time I would profit. I would not be right every go, but 1 go in a hundred my TA would make me win.

    The biggest area that makes TA sound like rubbish is the language people tend to use - "the Fibonacci trend is falling outside the death cross, but as the 2nd support level is intact we can stay bullish" (all just made up by me), it just sounds like rubbish, it just switches people off.

    What I would love to see is people posting what they trade and *when* (so the trade time is the same as the forum post timestamp) in a new forum topic, then we would really see who is making money and who isn't.

    My, I've been HODLing since 2013 (1 BTC ~ £200!) with the exception of some BTC I sold at varying times at about 8k (BTC I wish I'd kept). Bottom line, I'm in a nice place in that I will always be a long way up.
     
  7. HungryHippos

    Sgarrista

    Joined: 25 Mar 2004

    Posts: 9,456

    Location: Fareham

  8. dowie

    Capo Crimine

    Joined: 29 Jan 2008

    Posts: 52,028

    But the point is it doesn't necessarily do that, I don't think anyone is claiming it is perfect or arguing against the idea that it is perfect here.

    That's hardly the biggest flaw here, the bigger issue is what actually works - is the claim testable/falsifiable for a start - that removes a chunk of the subject already from Elliott Wave nonsense to subjectively drawn lines etc... most of the rest goes untested - people just believe in it because they read something uncritically in a book perhaps complete with some cherry-picked charts that demonstrate (retrospectively) where it "worked".
     
  9. Telecaster

    Soldato

    Joined: 17 Jun 2012

    Posts: 5,575

    I posted my last one, I'm not giving amounts.

    I'm up a reasonable amount on the whole, but more importantly I feel I'm in a good position with it all.
     
  10. Th0nt

    Capodecina

    Joined: 21 Jul 2005

    Posts: 12,401

    Location: N.Ireland

    Definitely attest to your point here. As much as I want to believe TA experts and their guidance/prediction/observations, a huge chunk of them cover their calls or like to point out when it happened to come good. You then see them in their own circle of click pro's backslapping and promoting one another (occasionally see them fall out too).

    The best time to see who's any good if they are public facing, was this recent crash. I think all the regular ones I would pay attention to basically have not done much right and the general rumbling from them is 'the bull phase is not over yet.. another spike is coming this year'.
     
  11. lanzarobbie

    Hitman

    Joined: 10 May 2009

    Posts: 787

    Ive been watching a few of them for a while now.
    One that always seems to have just seen something in the charts and just had to get it out there. Tbh ive never really found them useful as he said hes just waiting for confirmation to see if it's going up or down.
     
  12. Th0nt

    Capodecina

    Joined: 21 Jul 2005

    Posts: 12,401

    Location: N.Ireland

    Lots of build up, streaming, chart or two then the money shot: "yeah but it could also go the other way..."

    /big sigh
     
  13. Psycho Sonny

    Caporegime

    Joined: 21 Jun 2006

    Posts: 36,445

    It will be done in an app. Everything prices in normal currency. When you go to checkout he pulls out an app you pulls yours out and seller types in fiat amount and the app takes that amount of bitcoin from your app plus fees.

    There is no way they will be doing it themselves it will all be done without anyone having any real involvement other than typing the fiat value into an app.
     
  14. Jono8

    Caporegime

    Joined: 20 May 2007

    Posts: 34,205

    Location: Surrey

    You say this as though it is going to be super easy to set up/link to their tills and accounts etc and that everyone, even the 65 year old hardware store owner in a poor area is going to be able to get this up and running as easy as anything.

    I realise it is possible, but my point is more based on the actual realistic practicality of it nation wide (ie forcing every store to accept Bitcoin).
     
  15. Mercenary Keyboard Warrior

    Capodecina

    Joined: 4 Aug 2007

    Posts: 12,483

    Location: Wilds of suffolk

    I bought back in earlier on my sale from £27k, just under £26k as the drop looked to be stalling

    Relisted for sell at £27k with around 3% gain in volume from that last trade
     
  16. MoRT489

    Soldato

    Joined: 21 Aug 2006

    Posts: 7,118

    MKW are you trading large amounts to make these 3% gains actually worthwhile?
     
  17. Mercenary Keyboard Warrior

    Capodecina

    Joined: 4 Aug 2007

    Posts: 12,483

    Location: Wilds of suffolk

    Large as in whale, no
    Large as in making decent amounts, then yes, but

    Its all relative if you only dare risk say £500 then making 3-10% gains per pair of trades is still as significant to you as if you were trading 10 BTC per pair of trades

    There is a point where this would be more difficult, but your well into the double digits coin level. Whilst the price may move a lot its only on big price moves that there is a lot of volume traded (typically). If you tried to do this at that level you would probably be significant enough to almost function as a whale on many exchanges.
     
  18. Psycho Sonny

    Caporegime

    Joined: 21 Jun 2006

    Posts: 36,445

    Nobody is going to be using bitcoin to buy biscuits anyway because of fees, speed, costs of buying, etc. It will be larger things I imagine it will be more useful for.
     
  19. Psycho Sonny

    Caporegime

    Joined: 21 Jun 2006

    Posts: 36,445

    3% is worthwhile regardless of the amount.

    3% is 3%. If you made 3% every week do you have any idea what that adds up to over a year? Especially compounded.
     
  20. Th0nt

    Capodecina

    Joined: 21 Jul 2005

    Posts: 12,401

    Location: N.Ireland

    Yep its worth it. In the bear tighter times I was doing small margin trades, you cant always catch massive swings and they seem to be less of them. It is hardly worth it if the amount is so small that exchange fees wipe out your 3% for example.