Oil Prices at new high!

Soldato
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Posty said:
Only 1 group of professionals are saying this not all, there is a big arguement among them over wether we are at the peak, i agree with the ones that say we aren't


Its hard to tell but when you look into it you wil find we are at it or very very close. Also oil will be around for 100's of years you are correct. But not cheap oil, which is what we need. Theres no point drilling oil if no one can afford to buy it at say $300 a barrel.
 
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Chrisp7 said:
How many of these 'peak production' threads do we get! What a load of paranoia!


It people like you that dont want to believe. You want to think in your mind that you can carry on buying big sports cars, houses and so on and never have to worry about the how its all made and what it all costs to make. Please sit down and read and the fact some day and open your eyes.
 
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teaboy5 said:
Its hard to tell but when you look into it you wil find we are at it or very very close. Also oil will be around for 100's of years you are correct. But not cheap oil, which is what we need. Theres no point drilling oil if no one can afford to buy it at say $300 a barrel.
everyones entitled to their opinion but you shouldn't state that we are at or near peak as fact
 
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It people like you that dont want to believe. You want to think in your mind that you can carry on buying big sports cars, houses and so on and never have to worry about the how its all made and what it all costs to make

I am with the OP on this one.

Oil is a finite resource and we are simply using more than we can produce. The cost of extraction from the Oil Shales in Canada (supposedly the way forward for the next 50 years) is rapidly becoming more expensive - i.e. not viable under $50 a barrel - it is simply the case that the days of cheap Oil are all but over.

The airline industry will be the hardest hit, but the general inflationary pressure of oil prices will effect global economic conditions for the forseeable future.

Any escalation of the situation in Iran could massively inflate short term prices, and a "coning" of one of the big Saudi wells - which could happen at any time - would send prices spiralling.
 
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Soldato
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teaboy5 said:
It people like you that dont want to believe. You want to think in your mind that you can carry on buying big sports cars, houses and so on and never have to worry about the how its all made and what it all costs to make. Please sit down and read and the fact some day and open your eyes.

Haha do you know me? Do you know my opinions!? I, infact have never owned a car or a house! I believe we should cut down but I am not going to believe all of this utter utter 'peak oil' nonsense. It is based on very shoddy facts, and terrible economics. And yes I have read about it, some parts are true but most are based on gross errors and huge over estimates.
 
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Chrisp7 said:
Haha do you know me? Do you know my opinions!? I, infact have never owned a car or a house! I believe we should cut down but I am not going to believe all of this utter utter 'peak oil' nonsense. It is based on very shoddy facts, and terrible economics. And yes I have read about it, some parts are true but most are based on gross errors and huge over estimates.


trouble is our entire civilisation is built upon access to ever increasing amounts of oil - simply maintaining output is not enough. We know it takes 82 million barrels per day to maintain the current living standards for 6ish billion people. We are seriously overpopulated already and cannot even begin to imagine how bad it will become if oil production drops 2-4% every year.

For those already living on meagre energy rations in the 3rd world that'll mean starvation on a large scale.
I personally reckon on the poorest 2 billion on the planet dying within 30 years. You may totally disagree but we get to find out within our lifetimes.

I don't know what the population of the UK was at the during the coal age then there's a good chance it'll be that fairly soon after the oil age....say 50 years. I'm guessing 10 million tops.
 
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It should be obvious to anyone who takes the time to look that we are pretty much at global peak oil now. See this oil extraction rate curve - it's been flat for over a year now!

plateau_april_5.png


http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/7/2/205758/5414
 
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Soldato
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Dam! Think i will just head for the hills now, whos joining me? :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

All joking aside, clv whats your opinion on this did you think production will drop soon or will go up and down for a number of years and then just keep dropping.
 
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teaboy5 said:
All joking aside, clv whats your opinion on this did you think production will drop soon or will go up and down for a number of years and then just keep dropping.

As always it's complicated, there are actually some major new projects coming on line between now and 2009 - after than however there's pretty much nothing (and to deliver in 2010 we would have to know about it now). The question is just how quickly Mexico will decline and whether Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are about to collapse in a dramatic way.

It's clear that we're at or near the peak and the people talking of over 100mbpd in 2030 are utterly wrong - whether the current plateau continues for another few years before collapsing is anyone's guess really.
 
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a) There are huuge untapped resources (bitumen in Canada, Alaskan oil, Arctic, and presently unprofitable sources that will become profitable once prices rise enough)
b) The above graph - what source is that from? A biased 'oil peak' website? Or a balanced opinion?
c) oil resources will without doubt last long enough for humankind to adapt to live without oil/less dependant.
d) We are far far less dependant on oil as we used to be - why, at the 'current highest ever oil prices' arent we effected like in the 1970's (soaring inflation, resulting in recession)? oil prices can rise well above $100 a barrel before we are anywhere near the relative price level of the 70's.
e).. I could go on.

Its all doom mongering! The predictions used to be that we would run out of oil by the year 2000, and look where we are now. At any rate I think the more pressing issue is global warming and the reduction of greenhouse gasses, THAT is the real issue.
 
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Chrisp7 said:
a) There are huuge untapped resources (bitumen in Canada, Alaskan oil, Arctic, and presently unprofitable sources that will become profitable once prices rise enough)
b) The above graph - what source is that from? A biased 'oil peak' website? Or a balanced opinion?
c) oil resources will without doubt last long enough for humankind to adapt to live without oil/less dependant.
d) We are far far less dependant on oil as we used to be - why, at the 'current highest ever oil prices' arent we effected like in the 1970's (soaring inflation, resulting in recession)? oil prices can rise well above $100 a barrel before we are anywhere near the relative price level of the 70's.
e).. I could go on.

Its all doom mongering! The predictions used to be that we would run out of oil by the year 2000, and look where we are now. At any rate I think the more pressing issue is global warming and the reduction of greenhouse gasses, THAT is the real issue.

I think you've misunderstood the point of peak oil. It's not that oil will run out, but that the cheap oil peaks. Then it becomes extremely expensive to extract the rest. The economic impact will be huge.

I also believe we may have peaked.
 
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However for oil prices to peak, there needs to be a cause - ie scarce oil, large instability etc - where will this come from? Why have we hit peak? As explained earlier we are nowhere near the 1970's relative price levels.
 
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