Oil Prices at new high!
- Thread starter teaboy5
- Start date
Peak oil has virtually nothing to do with reserves and everything to do with flow rates - hence why the things you mention are no 'solution' at all.Chrisp7 said:
Are you serious? The graph plots IEA and EIA data - the two most reputable sources in the world!Chrisp7 said:
No doubt? Now that's opinion. And in my opinion completely wrong.Chrisp7 said:
The economy is less dependent - which is why the economy didn't crash when oil went from $30 to $60... but that's no argument that we don't have a problem. The fact of the matter is that (irrelevant of price) some time soon we will have to do with less oil, which means less productivity than would have been the case in the status quo situation of more oil.Chrisp7 said:
I won't call it doom mongering, it's just the logical conclusion from the available evidence. Some people don't like the conclusion and attempt to dismiss it as doom mongering but that doesn't change the reality of the situation:Chrisp7 said:
What are you on about!?Chrisp7 said:
This graph shows oil prices in inflation adjusted 2004 dollars:
Oil Price History and Analysis
I would say we are over the 1970's prices, off the scale of that graph in fact. Have you any idea what you're talking about?
Soldato
clv101 said:
What nonsense! The Flow rates are entitely dependant on avaliable resources - ie low resources = lower flow rate.
The 'graph' yes uses this data, however there are ways to put yourpoint across with stats (lie damn lies and statistics). All of your sources are from biased peak oil sites, and twist the facts to their own use I simply do not believe them. Just look at the 'growing gap' graph - How in anyway does it take into account the effect of sustained higher prices on increased viability of other sources of oil?
No doubt? Now that's opinion. And in my opinion completely wrong.
The economy is less dependent - which is why the economy didn't crash when oil went from $30 to $60... but that's no argument that we don't have a problem. The fact of the matter is that (irrelevant of price) some time soon we will have to do with less oil, which means less productivity than would have been the case in the status quo situation of more oil.
I won't call it doom mongering, it's just the logical conclusion from the available evidence. Some people don't like the conclusion and attempt to dismiss it as doom mongering but that doesn't change the reality of the situation:
Correct the economy is less dependant. Yes I believe that at some point we will will run out of oil, but this is not soon. Less oil does not necessarily mean lower productivity - humans will find a way, there is ample time. However that is down to opinion of course. All I do is refuse to believe these biased sites.
Your argument make some impact, if you used/found some balanced and reputable sources.
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Soldato
teaboy5 said:
Oil is still quite cheap! And inact is at an artifically high price due to speculation. There is plenty more room for movement and there will be more oil sources not shown on that graph. Necessity is the mother of invention.
Chrisp7 said:
Well you are free to have an opinion, pity you don’t want to accept the data.
Anyway take a look here, this will become more common. Now if all was well why would a small thing like this be happening? Also or local council have now cut back on collecting bins to 2 weeks instead of every week to cut back on fuel costs. http://news.independent.co.uk/envir...icle1178563.ece
More news, related to high oil prices.
http://today.reuters.com/stocks/Quo...umber=0&WTModLoc=InvArt-C1-ArticlePage3&sz=13
So what happens when sales drop and drop. People will lose their jobs by the thousands.
I dont think you get the bigger picture
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Soldato
teaboy5 said:Well you are free to have an opinion, pity you don’t want to accept the data.
Anyway take a look here, this will become more common. Now if all was well why would a small thing like this be happening? Also or local council have now cut back on collecting bins to 2 weeks instead of every week to cut back on fuel costs. http://news.independent.co.uk/envir...icle1178563.ece
More news, related to high oil prices.
http://today.reuters.com/stocks/Quo...umber=0&WTModLoc=InvArt-C1-ArticlePage3&sz=13
So what happens when sales drop and drop. People will lose their jobs by the thousands.
I dont think you get the bigger picture
I do 'get it' however what accurate 'data' is there to suggest this? There are only some poorly thought out graphs/twisted stats. I understand what you are saying I understand what peak oil is however I fundamentally disagree about the suddeness and immediacy.
So sales of SUV's in the US will decrease - perhaps they will come into line with the rest of the world - so what is large car sales 'drop and drop' but who knows they will 'drop and drop'! Its all speculation and grossly exaggerated.
ps -this is a little besides the point but when you wention councils cutting back, petrol prices in this country are mainly down to tax - its a totally different situation to the US
the thing is.. about this oil issue... no one is interested in action because we arent havin problems from it yet... we havent even reached a price pain threshold yet.. even at $80/b the uk roads are full...
when we start seein events such as these...
air travel collapsing
air lines going bust
cars being downsized massively
reduced traffic on the roads
govt reducing duty
govt abolishing duty
people startin to drive motorcyles, mopeds, bicycles with tiny CC engines
then it will be more on the agenda... then people will acknowledge there is a problem...
by the way.. each time one of those events happen, demand for oil is gonna ease off... delaying and stretching out the process of falling oil production.. assuming it does continue to fall...
who knows how long this whole process could be dragged out for.. could be several decades... perhaps even longer
when we start seein events such as these...
air travel collapsing
air lines going bust
cars being downsized massively
reduced traffic on the roads
govt reducing duty
govt abolishing duty
people startin to drive motorcyles, mopeds, bicycles with tiny CC engines
then it will be more on the agenda... then people will acknowledge there is a problem...
by the way.. each time one of those events happen, demand for oil is gonna ease off... delaying and stretching out the process of falling oil production.. assuming it does continue to fall...
who knows how long this whole process could be dragged out for.. could be several decades... perhaps even longer
Soldato
Chrisp7 said:
I love these statements. Whenever you talk of peak oil the underlying problem is always the Americans in large cars. Actually American cars have become smaller over the past decade as they tend to import smaller Japanese vehicles. The UK has a real problem as it has developed a love affair with 4x4's the so-called Chelsea tractor. These guzzle fuel at alarming rates yet only about 2% are ever required to go off-road in their lifetime. The UK now buys more of these than any other European country.
I think before we critisize the rest of the world we should get our own house in order.
Soldato
Third Opinion said:
My comment was merely in response to teaboy5's comments about SUV's - apparently their sales will 'drop and drop' and cause mass unemployment! I was not infact criticising the US for having SUV's at all!
I think before jumping to conclusions you should get your own house in order!
(only joking)You also say that our petrol price is mostly tax i think i am well aware of that, that wont be going down at time soon. And if they did say take 10p a litre of it. that would only bring it down to say 86p in the short term, it would soon be back into the 90's and dont forgot that if 10p was cut, where would all the lost tax be made up? They would end up adding it to other things and we would end up moaning about that too.
Dont forget you might say petorl is still cheap in the states which it is, but please dont forget the average size of a tank there is 20 gallons compared to say 12 gallons here. So it hits them harder each time they fill up.
Dont forget you might say petorl is still cheap in the states which it is, but please dont forget the average size of a tank there is 20 gallons compared to say 12 gallons here. So it hits them harder each time they fill up.
Chrisp7 said:My comment was merely in response to teaboy5's comments about SUV's - apparently their sales will 'drop and drop' and cause mass unemployment! I was not infact criticising the US for having SUV's at all!
I think before jumping to conclusions you should get your own house in order!
You cant say it wont cause unemployment. Look back a few months there is only dropped a little and they got rid of a few thousand workers from GM. Now what happens when sales drop by a large % ?
P.S ITS GOD DAM HOT TO-DAY!
Soldato
teaboy5 said:
Pure conjecture.
teaboy5 said:
Its irrelevant to peak oil really. I didnt say it wont cause uneployment but its not going to create the 'mass unemployment' you mentioned earlier.
and yeh - it is bloody hot isnt it!
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Chrisp7 said:
But might, what happens when airlane start cutting back on flights and so on. Also the street light issue has a lot to do with it. Due to the ever raising cost of energy they are always thinking of new ways to cut back. And they always use green house emissions etc as a way to justify. It always the small things that people dont notice.
