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Oil Production Falling

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by teaboy5, 6 Jul 2006.

  1. teaboy5

    Soldato

    Joined: 12 Jan 2006

    Posts: 5,556

    Location: NI

    Interesting thought on the subject


    http://www.blackenterprise.com/yb/ybopen.asp?section=ybin&story_id=95202275&ID=blackenterprise

    We also have one of the three largest oil fields in the world, two have peaked. Mexico announced that its giant Cantarell Field entered depletion in March, 2006, as did the huge Burgan field in Kuwait in November, 2005. In April, 2006, a Saudi Aramco spokesman admitted that its mature fields are now declining at a rate of 8% per year, and its composite decline rate of producing fields is about 2%[12], thus implying that Ghawar, the largest oil field in the world may have peaked. New drilling in Saudi Arabia may be able to replace a portion of that country's production decline.


    Above taken from peakoil.com


    I really think we will be seeing $80+ a barrel this summer and higher by the winter. The world really is in for a tough old time real soon.
     
  2. Inquisitor

    Capodecina

    Joined: 12 Apr 2004

    Posts: 11,788

    Location: Birmingham

    Woohoo, peak oil!

    This is a long term thing, so it's not going to happen overnight, although I was under the impression that peak oil wasn't going to occur for another 5 years or so :(

    Anyway, thanks for an interesting read.
     
    Last edited: 6 Jul 2006
  3. teaboy5

    Soldato

    Joined: 12 Jan 2006

    Posts: 5,556

    Location: NI

    Also heres more info


    Traditional natural gas supplies are also under the constraints of production peaks, which especially affect specific geographic regions because of the difficulty of transporting the resource over long distances. Natural gas production may have peaked on the North American continent in 2003, with the possible exception of Alaskan gas supplies which cannot be developed until a pipeline is constructed. Natural gas production in the North Sea has also peaked. UK production was at its highest point in 2000, and declining production and increased prices are now a sensitive political issue there. Even if new extraction techniques yield additional sources of natural gas, like coalbed methane, the energy returned on energy invested will be much lower than traditional gas sources, which inevitably leads to higher costs to consumers of natural gas.
     
  4. Hades

    Caporegime

    Joined: 19 Oct 2002

    Posts: 25,755

    Location: Surrey

    It's interesting to see the world finally wake up to this. It gets interesting from here on in.
     
  5. GlasgowTitan

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 29 Jun 2005

    Posts: 1,416

    Location: Glasgow

    Interesting?? I wouldn't call not being able to afford to run my car interesting.
     
  6. Rancidelephant

    Mobster

    Joined: 20 Oct 2002

    Posts: 3,264

    The people will have to find an alternative to massive car use, jobs will have to move closer to where people live.

    Interesting in how we will cope with the prolem and the solutions we will find instead moaning that they cant run a car.
     
  7. Radiation

    Mobster

    Joined: 12 Oct 2003

    Posts: 4,030

    I also think it will be interesting, maybe not good but interesting because the question is will we be able to pull out of the oil dependency we have and start using next gen technology? im hoping to see a cheaper or even free cost for the usage of energy after a likely collapse because energy has and always will be free you just usually have to pay someone to get it for you, i think we will start moving into a new age, weather its good or bad is up to us.
     
  8. v0n

    Sgarrista

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 8,089

    Location: The Great Lines Of Defence

    Alternatives are known for years. Most diesel cars can run on thinned vegetable oil. Think about it - the entire heavy intercontinental transit, every lorry, HGV, boat, every tractor, heavy machinery, ships and trains, power generators, airconditioners, most vans and taxis can stop using derv at snap of the fingers, nearly overnight. Old chippy oils etc could be recycled instread of being thrown away, endless options. The only reason why it doesn't happen is because veg oil would be impossible to tax. How would Gordo Brown get his fingers on the cash if fuel was readily available on supermarket shelves.
     
  9. anarchist

    PermaBanned

    Joined: 2 Dec 2004

    Posts: 9,702

    Location: Midlands

    Yes, diesel cars can indeed run on vegetable oil. The trouble is, there aren't billions of barrels of vegetable oil coming out of local chippies ;)

    It's a very small part of an overall solution, not an overnight solution like you imply.
     
  10. VIRII

    PermaBanned

    Joined: 24 Jul 2003

    Posts: 30,259

    What percentage of oil use is by car? I thoguht cars made up a very small amount of the consumption?
     
  11. anarchist

    PermaBanned

    Joined: 2 Dec 2004

    Posts: 9,702

    Location: Midlands

    Cars perhaps do, but transport in general is a biggie. First google match was this...
     
  12. VIRII

    PermaBanned

    Joined: 24 Jul 2003

    Posts: 30,259

    I thought that aircraft were a very significant user as well as plastics and so on. I could be utterly wrong of course but I was under the impression that petrol for cars was a pretty small user of the oil the world extracts.

    Hence falling oil extraction is going to impact other things a lot more significantly than petrol.
     
  13. Torquar

    Hitman

    Joined: 24 Jan 2006

    Posts: 630

    You obviously dont live in the north :p
     
  14. anarchist

    PermaBanned

    Joined: 2 Dec 2004

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    Location: Midlands

    Yes, the 67% figure was for "transport", so that includes lorries transport freight, air travel, cars etc. etc.

    On the DTI website, there is "total energy consumption by end use" pie chart on page 2.

    http://www.dti.gov.uk/files/file20300.pdf

    Some other interesting figures in that report, like the average home temperature going up from 15 degrees in 1991 to 19 degrees in 2002. Sounds about right. I remember when I was a kid basically wearing clothes to keep warm when the heating wasn't on but nowadays everybody seems to have permanently warm houses.

    Also, another "peak oil" type website saying that the sustainable population of the UK will only be 30 million by 2020.

    More figures here...

    http://www.dti.gov.uk/files/file10738.pdf
     
  15. kumar101

    Gangster

    Joined: 1 Sep 2005

    Posts: 401

    Location: Harrow, Middx

    In Brazil 40% of Cars run on ethanol. Japan is going to be importing it from Brazil.

    Central Africa is v fertile can easily grow Tons of Sugar Cane there.
     
  16. bottletop

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 26 Feb 2003

    Posts: 1,116

    I'm sure we could run 40% of our cars in this country on ethanol too....so long as we have the same number of cars per capita as brazil, and more importantly the same per capita oil usage as brazil i.e learn to accept a third world standard of living and not a first world one.

    Brazil oil production: 3.35 barrels per person
    Brazil oil consumption: 4.2 bpp

    Difference: 0.85 bpp

    US oil production: 11bpp
    US oil consumption: 27 bpp

    Difference: 16bpp

    So yes, Brazil has it figured, and if the US can produce 19x more fuel ethanol
    than brazil then they might too.
     
  17. Energize

    Caporegime

    Joined: 12 Mar 2004

    Posts: 28,995

    Location: England


    No you can just buy it from the supermarket....
     
  18. calnen

    Mobster

    Joined: 5 Jan 2004

    Posts: 4,063

    Location: Chester

    His point was that not enough actually exists for people to use it in cars. You'd have to have something stupid like 90% of the Earth's land surface dedicated to growing oil seed rape etc to produce as much energy as we now use. (I cant remember the exact figure but its something like that)
     
  19. Radiation

    Mobster

    Joined: 12 Oct 2003

    Posts: 4,030

    Wouldn't it be best in the long run if most people used electric cars and run the bigger and longer distance vehicles on fuels?

    All electricity can be generated renewably eventually so why aren't the changes being done now as it will be harder to sort out when the time comes.
     
  20. -|ScottFree|-

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 23 Jun 2005

    Posts: 2,495

    Location: On the Edge*

    Its all well and good when you come up with ethanol and vegetable oil as a solution to fuelling our vehicles, but oil is needed to produce the pesticides that allow our food to grow and the sugar beet and wheat crops that ethanol is produced through. It is also used for thousands of types of plastics and soaps, detergents etc etc.

    The loss of oil to the world is a catastrophic catastrophe.