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Planning for the inevitible future - will you be buying a petrol car just before new ICE is banned?

Discussion in 'Motors' started by Hades, 5 Jan 2021.

  1. Jonnycoupe

    Capodecina

    Joined: 19 Oct 2002

    Posts: 13,224

    Location: N.Warks

    Been doing it for years, I had a Honda Insight for 12 years though so compromise is something i do get.
    imagine I had paid proper money for an EV.... not sure that would make me less pro EV with the added factor of purchase justification syndrome. I'll start sounding like Gibbo how cheap the monthlies are.... after smashing down a 5 figure deposit :p:D

    Please don't let emotion get in the way on that statement - my car is irrelevant to what i said. Even if Matt Hancock had said it, it would still be true.

    Thank you for highlighted my less bias opinion that other EV drivers, I'm not as financially committed. Appreciate that observation Fox. :)
     
  2. Jonnycoupe

    Capodecina

    Joined: 19 Oct 2002

    Posts: 13,224

    Location: N.Warks

    Cos its his 'second car'
     
  3. Howard

    Capodecina

    Joined: 12 Jul 2007

    Posts: 16,155

    Location: South East


    I don't have any off-street parking at home that would allow me to plug in. But even if I did, if I was replacing my car with a BEV, I would want a range in the same ballpark of what I get now, which is about 350 miles of mixed driving (and more for long distance driving). I would also want to be able to pull up to a petrol charging station and be fully charged quickly, no waiting around for either a space at a charger or for 20 minutes while it charges. If this wasn't possible then it would feel like a backward step for me. I would like to hope that the technology changes a lot in 10 years. I don't often do long journeys but I would like the flexibility. I might, for example, visit somewhere 150 miles away and there might not be a guaranteed place to charge. It's also not a journey I'd usually stop for a "coffee break". In a vehicle with 300 miles' range, I would feel nervous about whether I'd make it home.

    I hate filling up with fuel now and it only takes two minutes and I have to do it less than once a month :p
     
  4. [TW]Fox

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 17 Oct 2002

    Posts: 157,129

    Do you know what, I have to concede that point. You're right - your lack of any real investment into the platform does make your opinion more objective than others.
     
  5. Jonnycoupe

    Capodecina

    Joined: 19 Oct 2002

    Posts: 13,224

    Location: N.Warks

    And i concede I need to run it for much longer to get a fuller view.
     
    Last edited: 6 Jan 2021
  6. lordrobs

    Capodecina

    Joined: 30 Sep 2003

    Posts: 14,978

    Location: Norwich

    Yeah its going to be different for everyone, that is for sure. A big part of my job is onsite customer service (installations, repairs, training etc.) and my reach is all of the UK and Ireland so my instant reaction when I first thought about it was "Well, I need HUUGE range" but when I started really thinking about it my needs are actually much less than I initially realised.

    My longest ever non stop trip was Sunderland back to my home just south of Norwich, approximately 280 miles. That was straight off the back of visiting a customer and I think I'd stayed at a hotel <10 miles from their location. So, assuming I'd got a full charge overnight then I'd have had to have a range of 300 miles (to allow a bit of wiggle room) to do that trip. Straight away though I can knock over 30 miles off that trip by taking the A17 back home... I mean I'd rather not, but I could. Now my range need to do that trip is 270 miles and that trip was an exceptional one for me. I VERY rarely do more than 200 miles without taking a break to grab a drink and keep on top of my emails etc.

    I keep banging the same old drum but for me the range of the current crop of EVs is there or thereabouts for my needs. I just need to know, without any doubt in my mind, that at any point during my day I can stop at a motorway or A-Road services and charge to 80% in half an hour. Waiting for a charger, having to do multiple stops to find a working charger or faffing around with multiple apps to try and get some juice would be the deal breakers for me. I'm at least a couple of years away from getting my next company car (probably longer) but I'm confident that we'll be well on the way to meeting those requirements by the time I need to seriously consider it.

    Oh, absolutely. As we all know most trips are well within the range of an EV without ever having to consider public charging. I guess in those terms "second car" is the wrong term, I was more making the point that these people tend to have a larger family type car (SUV, MPV etc.) in addition to an EV at this point. We'd have been the same and if non battery lease Zoe's were more prevalent we'd probably have got one before being offered the Polo.
     
  7. lordrobs

    Capodecina

    Joined: 30 Sep 2003

    Posts: 14,978

    Location: Norwich

    But both of those arguments assume that people will either run a car forever or scrap it to buy an EV. The reality is people change cars for multiple reasons and this always comes with an environmental impact from their production.

    I do have concerns about the ramping up of mining for Lithium etc. The sheer demand (on top of what we already have for consumer electronics) is likely to lead to some nasty practices at that level if it isn't well regulated.
     
  8. adam cool dude

    Capodecina

    Joined: 22 Oct 2002

    Posts: 10,734

    Location: Boston, Lincolnshire

    I understand that people want new things and if someone said I want an EV because I want to try something new or I want instant torque I would totally get that. People saying I want an EV to save money or the environment is a total fallacy in reality.
     
  9. [TW]Fox

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 17 Oct 2002

    Posts: 157,129

    I've been thinking about this. The first thing I will say is that my usage profile is not typical of most. I accept this, but at the same time, I buy cars that work for me not others so for me personally, it's very relevant.

    My car usage is split into three main areas

    a) Local running around
    b) Day trips
    c) Airport runs and long road trips

    For a), a BEV would be absolutely ideal. I've said a lot before that if it wasn't for the fact we ordered it new, its still pristine and it suits our needs I'd have an electric MINI tomorrow. I am not anti BEV. I'd love a BEV as part of my car 'fleet' because it's interesting and fun and I like cars and tech. I also love refinement and silence and what does this better than a BEV? Nothing. So, for a), an electric MINI would be absolutely perfect. The cost saving is a non issue - there is no material cost saving between the petrol Mini and the BEV Mini. It costs very little to do 5k a year around town in a petrol Mini. So, it's purely about the interest side of it and the way it would drive.

    For b), we do this as often as we can - we'll often go out for the day and drive perhaps 100-150 miles visiting places, scenery, etc. I think this too would work with a BEV, but I'd be less inclined to do it in an electric MINI and would therefore want to use my main car. Which brings us on to..

    c). This is a big part of what a car does for us. We love massive road trips and do them whenever possible - which isn't much at the moment with the current situation. Often in Europe or further afield. For example, on my last trip to Europe I jumped into the car in Munich and drove to Venice in a single day. The traffic was bad, stopping opportunities were not quite what you'd expect and I was incredibly glad of the enormous tank range of the 540d I was driving. Where to fill up or recharge just wasn't on the radar and I was glad of that. Many of our trips include days where will drive perhaps 400-500 miles in a single day. Sometimes, this would coincide perfectly with a stop for lunch and a recharge of the car but not always and it isn't convenient to have where and when you stop dictated not by your choice but by the requirements to charge. It is this area where I am most concerned about the BEV future. I'd suggest that more than 50% of the miles I cover are in scenario c). Many people rarely do significant trips but I do and I really enjoy doing them - it's why I drive the 530d because it is almost tailor made for that. So, obviously, any car I replace the 530d with is also likely to be particularly suitable for this sort of driving. And BEV isn't there yet. And neither is ample charging facilities at places like airports - it is 230 miles to Heathrow. I fill up at home, I drive to the airport, I leave the car there and when I get back I can get straight in and drive home without needing to think about having to charge the car first. This is particularly useful if you have a late arrival. It's just so convenient. Well, as convenient as it can be living a 4 hour drive from the airport :D

    So, really, what I'd ideally like to do is diversify my car fleet to include a BEV for local journeys and a decent ICE for long distance stuff. Ideally I'd have another ultra refined powerful diesel but the universe hates these now. But there is a ticking clock on being able to do this even though for many people it's the right scenario - if we didn't have this ridiculous ban idea looming lots of people would probably naturally move towards a BEV for town and an ICE for distance which would make significant inroads into the city centre air quality issues (and on the open road, diesel becomes very useful as it emits much less CO2).

    I'm also drawn to the idea of a plug in hybrid. But range becomes an issue here, too, as manufacturers seem intent on fitting tiny fuel tanks. The 545e - a 390bhp twin turbo petrol straight six - has a fuel tank almost half the size of my 530d. Great.
     
  10. R.P.L

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 20 Mar 2012

    Posts: 1,640

    Location: Locked Down

    As others have said, I think ICE cars will probably become like classic cars are now. As cars are mainly a toy for me and EVs don't float my boat at all, it's unlikely that I'll ever make the switch. Hopefully in 10-15 years' time I'll be a man of leisure, doing restomods on 'old school' performance cars with ICEs and manual gearboxes :)
     
  11. Jonnycoupe

    Capodecina

    Joined: 19 Oct 2002

    Posts: 13,224

    Location: N.Warks

    Good summary above, your obsession with BMW is clouding your view of PHEV tanks there though - lots of sensible size tanks. Of course Harry Metcalfe seems to be enjoying his experience with his X5 45e.

    You can fill it even quicker if its smaller! :p Remember that tank is again a rarer 30 times a year journey maybe.
     
  12. Saytan

    Mobster

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 4,563

    Given that virtually everybody buys their cars on some form of tick nowadays, how would folk feel about lease* deals where you get a certain number of days hire of an equivalent ICE car bundled in? the average usage of cars in the UK being 20 miles a day...

    it'd cover off a lot of cases like the christmas-trip-back-home and the week-in-cornwall


    *other methods of acquiring cars are available
     
  13. [TW]Fox

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 17 Oct 2002

    Posts: 157,129

    It isn't really obsession, it's more that they consistently seem to make the cars that appeal.

    I'd consider another brand if anyone made something as good as the 5 Series. But they don't seem to - that said the facelift E Class looks close now they've fixed the awful infotainment system.
     
  14. Nasher

    Capodecina

    Joined: 22 Nov 2006

    Posts: 19,594

    Shame about the uglyness though.

    Its like finding the perfect women, but shes obese.
     
  15. Joe T

    Capodecina

    Joined: 1 Apr 2003

    Posts: 11,728

    Location: Northampton

    Something already offered by PSA Group (not sure if in UK), but it seemed to work more as a 'peace of mind' factor for a potential purchaser than something actually exercised. Still a good idea though. :)
     
  16. jpaul

    Capodecina

    Joined: 1 Mar 2010

    Posts: 13,465

    landrover scheme was discussed here, that had such a controversially exhorbitant £6/700 p/m hire deal, where you could switch ev/ice cars, and, take holidays.

    Even if petrol and diesel taxes are not increased towards the 2030 date making ICE financially unpalateable, to avoid gilet-jaunes/french type protests.
    availibility of parts will be a problem ? if manufacturers currently stockpile surplus production, presumably they will start ramping that down - soon ?
    so parts and maintenance of ICE may increase in the lead up.

    edit : does/did the eu have a bill requiring mftrs to provide part support for white goods/cars for so many years ?

    edit2:
    like the point-case financial benefit for those with 0% company car bik, if I lived in london side-stepping the congestion/pollution charges, could make it viable.
     
    Last edited: 6 Jan 2021
  17. [TW]Fox

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 17 Oct 2002

    Posts: 157,129

    Yes it's annoying as they turned a good looking car with the pre facelift into an ugly thing with the facelift. I've no idea why, the original looked great?
     
  18. lordrobs

    Capodecina

    Joined: 30 Sep 2003

    Posts: 14,978

    Location: Norwich

    Yeah, I get where you are coming from with the road trips. Ultimately if my employer said to me tomorrow - we are getting you a new car do you want ICE or EV? I'd opt for EV (because of the BIK obviously) but I would have concerns. Destination charging being one for my work trips. I know most hotels offer a token gesture of charging now but it would only take a couple of other people turning up with the same idea and my whole schedule for the following day would be turned upside down. Also the flexibility to change my plans at a moments notice without even having to consider powering my car.

    For my usage I'm sure improved charging will help resolve these issues and concerns. If they really do replicate that Gridserve station 100+ times around the UK that would be awesome. Even if general garages and services get more charging I could work around the destination charging issue.

    I totally agree with your comments on the 2030 deadline. When the ownership proposition becomes tempting enough people will move anyway, no need to force the issue with a forced cut off point.

    The schemes so far seem so expensive. Also, and I know I'm odd like this but the Volvo scheme I saw advertised where you can swap the car as often as every 3 months, well... I agonise over trying to get the best possible car I can when I buy used. If I have a new car I really look after it. Do I really want to be paying effectively over and above the lease cost of a brand new car to drive something that has just come from someone who doesn't give a stuff and his family who turned the car into a bit of a shed during their time with it?
     
  19. Tom|Nbk

    Capodecina

    Joined: 12 Mar 2006

    Posts: 22,491

    Location: England

    Good video on this from HG he is very thorough with it.



    I can't help but wonder and even perhaps be a tad concerned based on the fact I have two 'high end' performance petrol cars worth a bit of cash. I am 32 this year and will be 41 when the ban comes into effect. I am hoping well into my 60's and 70's I can still enjoy both cars!

    Definitely not ready to hang my petrol hat up in my lifetime.

    I would imagine it has some enthusiasts a little concerned?
     
  20. r22snapper

    Hitman

    Joined: 15 Feb 2014

    Posts: 654

    Location: Peterboghorror

    My petrol car only gets around 250 miles to the tank and I'd be happy with that in a BEV. Realistically the longest semi-regular journey I do is to and from evening football games 110 miles away, I wouldn't want to get back any later than I already do so would want to be confident doing the return trip on one charge. I'd be quite happy to go electric now if there was a decent looking, reasonably priced choice. I fully expect that there will be long before any ban comes in. I reckon I'll still keep my ICE for fun though.