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The Post-Brexit Thread

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Irish_Tom, 1 Jan 2021.

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  1. Moley

    Mobster

    Joined: 29 Aug 2006

    Posts: 3,391

    Location: In a world of my own

    Depends if the 3rd party standards are equivalent to the UK. If they are not, there has to be controls in place although why you would want to import goods from 3rd party just to ship to EU, I'm don't know.

    If you have a specific example, I'd be happy to think about it.
     
  2. loftie

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 17 Oct 2009

    Posts: 1,318

    No idea if there are any in existance currently, however the UK wants a trade deal with the US. If we agree to one, and what we agree to allows importing of goods to the UK that has a lower standard than the EU allow (or uses things banned in the EU) then checks need to be done on any goods going to the EU in case some tries to ship stuff over. Otherwise, someone could of course import said items via the UK and then they could enter the EU single market without any checks. This obviously applies in reverse too - if the EU made and agreement with another party and stuff was imported to the UK via them.

    Could also be used to get around any quotas countries/blocks have with eachother - though this is based on the assumption that we don't have any quotas limits with the EU and they have none with us, and I don't know if we do or do not.

    As to the why you'd want to do this, because there will be items where profit can be made.
     
  3. JRS

    Capodecina

    Joined: 6 Jun 2004

    Posts: 16,785

    Location: Burton-on-Trent

  4. thenewoc

    Soldato

    Joined: 9 Mar 2012

    Posts: 7,235

    Location: West Sussex, England

    It doesn't look like the EU will bounce back to pre Covid GDP sooner than the UK with the EU now being in recession. So long as our bounce back is better than the EU's then we've done better.
     
  5. JeditOjanen

    Soldato

    Joined: 7 Feb 2011

    Posts: 5,878

    More like this:

    https://imgur.com/fKLAY39.mp4
     
  6. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: 20 Jan 2005

    Posts: 39,314

    Location: Co Durham

    But we got hit the worst by Covid losing 9.9% and we are expected to bounce back by 6.5%

    Whereas the Eu lost 7.4% due to covid and expected to bounce back by 5.5%.

    So yeah, our "boom" is going to be bigger than the EUs but then we fell much further so we need to have a bigger boom to get back to where we were before covid.

    I still fancy the EU will get back to pre covid levels before the UK. And we only technically avoided recession ourselves due to stockpiling in the last quarter 2020 due to brexit. One benefit you could say.
     
  7. jonneymendoza

    Capodecina

    Joined: 7 Apr 2008

    Posts: 17,929

    i voted for the eu party for the london election. wish me luck lol
     
  8. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: 19 May 2004

    Posts: 22,268

    Location: Nordfriesland, Germany

    It's worth emphasising, as well, that a 9.9% decrease followed by a 6.5% bounce back isn't a net 3.4% loss, it's a net loss of a little over 4%. Whereas 7.4% then 5.5% is a net loss of 2.3%.
     
  9. BowdonUK

    Soldato

    Joined: 17 Jan 2016

    Posts: 5,069

    Probably in some areas. If the German Green MEP Terry Reintke, who is very pro-EU (even wanting Wales and Scotland to remain in the EU), is open to us moving as close as possible in the future then there is an opportunity.
     
  10. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: 20 Jan 2005

    Posts: 39,314

    Location: Co Durham

    Thing is I already know that Brexit Ministers and their supporters will be trumpeting the great success of the UK and how we have outperformed the EU with 6.5% growth vs 5.5% etc as shown already on here by one poster

    Its the same false logic where people say that the good gdp growth lies outside of the EU and quoting some countries growth as 20% ignoring how small they are and their annual GDP is smaller than Co Durham.

    Its always much easier to grow a small company by big percentages than a big one. We had 25% growth per annum for 5 years on a trot. Problem is to try and keep that 25% growth going, you start and need to grow your company each by more than the whole company was a few years earlier. Which is why you dont see companies like BP posting 25% growth figures.
     
  11. Moley

    Mobster

    Joined: 29 Aug 2006

    Posts: 3,391

    Location: In a world of my own

    Yeah this is what I figured would happen. Let's go with chlorinated chicken for example - if we allowed it into the UK on mutual recognition, our standards don't allow it but the US ones do. When it gets here, our standards still don't recognise it and neither do the EU so the mutual recognition pact between UK-EU wouldn't allow for it's passing on to the EU. So yes, checks needed but perfectly doable - a simple documenting of the country of origin of the product should do the trick.
     
  12. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: 20 Jan 2005

    Posts: 39,314

    Location: Co Durham

    And yet as part of the deal the US wants to scrap any requirement for country of origin and our parliament has already voted down an amendment which would enforce this.

    So we seem so desperate for a US trade deal at any cost that our Govt dont care if it means that we can never solve the trade issues with the EU cause all EU is bad right?
     
  13. Moley

    Mobster

    Joined: 29 Aug 2006

    Posts: 3,391

    Location: In a world of my own

    Yeah that's sucky. The only reason to deny country of origin requirements are if you a) expect your products to be further exported to a 3rd party or b) you are sending through product that don't originate in your country and may not comply with your standards. Kinda dodgy by the Americans either way and we shouldn't be accepting this.
     
  14. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: 20 Jan 2005

    Posts: 39,314

    Location: Co Durham

    We shouldnt be accepting it but we will. same why we shouldn't be accepting meat and food which dont meet our high standards but thats going out of the window already with other trade negotiations.
     
  15. inogen

    Soldato

    Joined: 19 Jul 2009

    Posts: 5,125

    Yeah, I don't know why or how people expect there to be free trade in goods with the EU ever whilst we have our own standards and even worse, import goods from other countries with different standards again. That's not how the EU works. A free trade deal with the EU will require compliance with EU regs. That stance will never, ever soften.
     
  16. loftie

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 17 Oct 2009

    Posts: 1,318

    Unless I've completely misunderstood, we have a FTA with the EU.
     
  17. inogen

    Soldato

    Joined: 19 Jul 2009

    Posts: 5,125


    We can have our own standards and import what we like, but exporting anything that doesn't comply with EU standards into the EU is not part of the FTA.

    Non compliance with EU regs is a further disaster waiting to happen. Essentially we'd end up with "domestic" and "export" standards that would cause even more bureaucracy.
     
    Last edited: 4 May 2021
  18. JeditOjanen

    Soldato

    Joined: 7 Feb 2011

    Posts: 5,878

    Not being able to resolve trade issues with the EU is a feature, not a bug. The Tory intent is to put up as many barriers as possible with EU trade so that when Brexit turns out to be a total disaster, it's much harder to reverse it. It's also why they took us out of the Single Market - otherwise as soon as we started being told what the terms were, even the stupidest Brexiteer would ask why we still didn't have control of all our laws.
     
  19. loftie

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 17 Oct 2009

    Posts: 1,318

    The way I understand an FTA, is no tariffs and no quotas. Standards do not need to be aligned but as you say exports must meet the standards required to where you're importing. Is what you're describing not a Customs Union?
     
  20. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: 19 May 2004

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    Location: Nordfriesland, Germany

    The EU is the only thing that meets this standard that I know of, the rest are partial. Offering no tariffs on some areas, no quotas on some areas, a combination on others is far more normal.

    All free trade agreements involve agreements on standards. Otherwise that theoretical trade access isn't worth toffee. The better the FTA the deeper the alignment.