Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

beachBOYken · 20 Jun 2014 at 12:10

Bear said:
I didn't but I just read about it from the AGM notes

lol

, I was the same I did read about the consolidation the other day but completly forgot about it, checked the price today thinking I was in the money!!!

Russinating · 20 Jun 2014 at 12:25

Interesting! Worth looking at for spread betting now

silversurfer · 20 Jun 2014 at 15:36

15 for 1 doesnt work

1 for 15, aha. all the graphs are off now, depending on the quality they should reflect a share price drop today

Unfortunately most free providers are crap on updating and wont show splits properly, except on the big shares they do eventually.
I did sell a bit of QPP near 20, hard to say from a graph now but its normal volume pullback ?

[4 mil or 60mil old shares, 93m average so low vol pullback - qpp bullish ]

silversurfer said:
Also AAZ Azerbaijan gold copper is a possible takeoff / ski jump situation, from 10 to 20 area

+10% today but could I honestly sell at 20 and be happy, not sure I have enough

ABG come back down again, guess I will have to buy a bit more to stay consistent
Bought RMG

The Carl Icahn Effect & How it Can Work For You
By Bryan Rich
June 20, 2014, 3:30pm EST

A few weeks ago, Carl Icahn disclosed a 9.4% stake in Family Dollars stores (FDO). The stock gapped up more than 16% on that news alone.

Today, as its largest shareholder, Icahn is beginning to rattle the cages at FDO. He's demanding a sale of the company to unlock value for stock holders.

Of course, Icahn is one of the most high profile investors in the world, and the most high profile activist investor. When he takes on a company's management, he usually wins. In fact, he's so good, he tends to attract a crowd ... i.e. other big, influential investors tend to follow him, making big investments themselves. In addition to Icahn's big stake in FDO, two other big funds combine to own more than 13%.

You can see from this chart below, the influence he has already had on the stock ...

fdo

Now, despite some of the negative criticisms that activist investors like Icahn receive, they have an excellent record of doing what CEOs are supposed to be doing for shareholders: maximizing the value of shares.

We've followed Icahn on four stocks in our premium service, The Billionaire's Portfolio, and with great success.

So why does it seem that every stock Icahn touches turns to gold? It's because he’s a change-maker!

In a recent note to our Billionaire's Portfolio subscribers, we discussed the "Icahn Effect." I've copied in an excerpt from that note below. Enjoy ...

Regards,
Bryan

-----------------------------

[From The Billionaire's Portfolio - June 19 note]

The Carl Icahn Effect

In a world where information is abundant, markets are priced quite efficiently. With that, the way a stock re-prices is through CHANGE. And that’s precisely what our influential investors specialize in. And that’s why they have such a tremendous record in posting consistent superior returns – and, in turn, building tremendous wealth for themselves and their investors.

No one has done this better than Carl Icahn – certainly not over the span of the past three decades. That’s why we have 15% of our Billionaires Portfolio in stocks owned and controlled by Icahn.

I consider Icahn the god-father of activism. Very early on, he found that among all of the complications people like to add to investing, there is a very simple opportunity to take advantage and capitalize on the simplicities that we all know about human nature. In his words, “some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity.”

I’ll interpret that remark with these three simple points: 1) People will take advantage of opportunities to satisfy their own self-interests. 2) People will find ways to justify their self-serving actions. 3) People will be greedy.

Add this human nature to a concoction called the public equity markets, and you find, among many things, a witch’s brew of bad management teams at publicly traded companies.

To most investors, identifying a company that run poorly is a red flag – something to stay away from. For Icahn, it’s opportunity. It’s blood in the water. Why? Because it presents the opportunity for CHANGE. And when you get change, you have a chance to make a lot of money as the stock re-prices to reflect that change.

Icahn has done this over and over throughout his long career. That's why he has been able to post a 27% annualized return over the past 52-years. That is the greatest long-term investment track record in history (as far as we know). One thousand dollars compounded at 27% for 52 years would be worth $250 million today.

Today, Icahn is as vocal and as influential as ever. He’s influenced Apple to a more than 40% gain since August, by encouraging Apple to use their treasure chest of cash to buy back stock. Cash sitting on a balance sheet idle does nothing for shareholders. Share buybacks create shareholder value.
That’s the name of the game. Despite what some CEOs may think, that is precisely why they have been employed, to create shareholder value.

The Carl Icahn Effect on The Billionaire's Portfolio

We have had four stocks in our portfolio where we’ve piggybacked Carl Icahn. As Icahn has generated an amazing track record for himself, his record with us is equally laudable. Here’s a review the Icahn affect on our portfolio:

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) – We made a 74% return on this stock in a little over a year. That was almost triple the return of the S&P 500 during the same period.

Navistar (NAV) – This remains an open position, and we are currently up 55%. As we detailed in last week’s note, this cyclical play has the potential to be another triple digit winner for us.

Nuance (NUAN)- We are about break even on Nuance from our original recommendation. Many of our newer subscribers in the service should be well in the black. Nuance is up 27% year-to-date, and 36% over the past six months. This compares very favorably to the 6% YTD return and 11% six-month return for the S&P 500.

As I mentioned last week Nuance is “in play.” Within our case for Nuance when we initially recommended it back in April 24, 2013, we projected a potential suitor in Apple, given Apple’s huge cash position and existing relationship with Nuance’s Siri technology. We also wrote about this thesis in Forbes back in August 26, 2013 (you can see that here). Since then, the speculation about a takeover from Apple has been building. Of course, since that time, Carl Icahn has become a very influential and vocal shareholder in Apple. So we are now seeing nice positive momentum in NUAN, driven by the speculation that Apple or Samsung could acquire the company for a large premium.

Transocean (RIG) - Our newest Icahn addition is up 12% in less than two months. And this stock is just beginning to move. It has a huge dividend yield of 6.7%, paying us handsomely to wait as more catalysts are put in motion by Icahn.

In short, Icahn’s continued investing success can be attributed to one important talent: He’s a change-maker. When we follow him, we can be assured that he has a plan for change and that he will fight to make it happen. Plus, when we follow Icahn, we get an added bonus that few, if any, other big time investors summon: Because of his great success, his campaigns tend to attract other influential investors to join in – stacking the odds even more favorably for shareholders.

Freddie1980 · 20 Jun 2014 at 17:32

I've done my first bit trading for a couple of years sold some BP stock and bought Vodafone. BP woes with the US legal system is the equivalent of knotweed for BP, I can't see the supreme court ruling in its favour regarding bogus payouts in the wake of gulf of mexico oil spil. Vodafone offers slightly better dividends yields then BP and its restructuring to focus on its core activities so this should be a good long term investment.

Nabzlfc · 21 Jun 2014 at 14:39

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-27954344

Time to short Asos for an expected plummet on Monday surely?

Ok...

I've never done CFD's etc before but I want to short Asos.

Could somebody please help me and explain the below for me? and how to set a stop loss of me losing no more than say £100 if it goes wrong?

Freddie1980 · 21 Jun 2014 at 14:59

To late, everyone will be shorting it come monday morning

silversurfer · 21 Jun 2014 at 15:27

It'd open down from market makers but its possible to move even greater amounts in full trading hours, a second booster rocket stage to the move

CFD is cheaper for you then spreadbet?

If 1 unit or 100 shares then 1 gbp equals 1 pip I think. So STOP 100 pips away and tick guaranteed stop (I thikn this increases spread cost)

Limit is your target, if you sell short then it'd be a target below current price and it'd close there (or buy at that price to close the sell)

1000 units x 100 shares is a lot :O If you are new do 1 unit. 2730 price wont exist monday, entering on a ticket now I think will just leave it standing

There is bigger volume grading in from 2000 to 1500 and then a gap till 500p. Looks like 5000 or the failure to clear 4500 recently was a good place to short

peterwalkley · 21 Jun 2014 at 16:20

It wouldn't surprise me if the ASOS shares were suspended monday morning.

Nabzlfc · 21 Jun 2014 at 16:40

silversurfer said:
It'd open down from market makers but its possible to move even greater amounts in full trading hours, a second booster rocket stage to the move

CFD is cheaper for you then spreadbet?

If 1 unit or 100 shares then 1 gbp equals 1 pip I think. So STOP 100 pips away and tick guaranteed stop (I thikn this increases spread cost)

Limit is your target, if you sell short then it'd be a target below current price and it'd close there (or buy at that price to close the sell)

1000 units x 100 shares is a lot :O If you are new do 1 unit. 2730 price wont exist monday, entering on a ticket now I think will just leave it standing

There is bigger volume grading in from 2000 to 1500 and then a gap till 500p. Looks like 5000 or the failure to clear 4500 recently was a good place to short

Thank you very much, much appreciated, will do a spreadbet rather than CFD also

silversurfer · 22 Jun 2014 at 13:54

Suspended should be exceptional, dont think the banks ever were. Entered into auction is the process to slow it down, more commonly or does that happen with aim at all, not sure

CFD has fixed commission but I believe also smaller spreads like a real share, it might make sense for some.
I was thinking and I might be wrong but I wonder if its more profitable to buy a bounce of it (then sell then buy again, etc). Along the lines of sell the news.

Just posting to mention Questor 'reviewed' Quindell again and recommended a further sell after his earlier 36p sell.
He and other press were banned from QPP meeting which he finds suspect.

Quindell's high octane growth - sell

dowie · 22 Jun 2014 at 14:08

silversurfer said:
CFD has fixed commission but I believe also smaller spreads like a real share, it might make sense for some.

CFDs (depending on the provider) can give you direct access to the order book and are essentially a way around paying stamp duty - makes sense for anyone actively trading with reasonable size as the costs will be significantly lower. IB and IG both offer this.

some providers however just operate a parallel market much like most spread betting providers rendering CFDs a bit pointless in those cases

snitcher · 22 Jun 2014 at 14:31

Freddie1980 said:
To late, everyone will be shorting it come monday morning

+1

DireEmblem · 22 Jun 2014 at 17:08

Whats peoples thoughts on P2PGI?

I see it as having potential, but would only be inclined to invest if it dropped back down to nearer £10. This is given that the initial value of the company must dip as they get charged 0.25% to trade in and so on. I'm not sure how they can merit the 15% performance fee. To me if a fund has a performance fee, there should be a significant discount on the AMC, as effectively you are almost 'double' charging if that makes sense?

Stumble Bum · 22 Jun 2014 at 19:36

Probably been asked a few times before, but what is the best android app that people use to track their stocks? Any that stand out from the rest?

Freddie1980 · 23 Jun 2014 at 00:49

DireEmblem - its peer to peer lending so it's not directly stockmarket trading. It's a good way of lending out money to individuals and SME's without going to banks and its a good way of earning a much higher return on your cash then a tradtional isa or savngs accounts As for the company its self I've never heard of it but there are loadsnof these firms about some have slush funds which will reimburse investors when an investment turns into a bad debt so my advice would be shop around.

Stumble - I have bookmarks on my phone for the couple of investments which are google pages for my shares not quite sure what the delay is but for a quick check it suits. Did you want an app to give you real time prices?

dowie · 23 Jun 2014 at 01:03

Stumble Bum said:
Probably been asked a few times before, but what is the best android app that people use to track their stocks? Any that stand out from the rest?

dunno about 'the best' but the Bloomberg app is worth a look

Russinating · 23 Jun 2014 at 07:49

I just use my spread betting account, all there and if I need to act upon anything I'm already in anyway. Otherwise I'd use Google Now.

Right, let's see what happens to ASOS this morning...

Russinating · 23 Jun 2014 at 08:43

Managed to get a short in for a 20 pip profit but it didn't sink much, as I kind of expected - fire damage looks limited to stock rather than structure, website is back up already, they dealt with it pretty well, could even say it was a bit of free PR!

Anyway I sold the short and going long now, already up 20 pips.

Nabzlfc · 23 Jun 2014 at 09:44

Russinating said:
Managed to get a short in for a 20 pip profit but it didn't sink much, as I kind of expected - fire damage looks limited to stock rather than structure, website is back up already, they dealt with it pretty well, could even say it was a bit of free PR!

Anyway I sold the short and going long now, already up 20 pips.

Yip! This morning's RNS saved them big time, but it was a good RNS as it was straight and to the point that only 20% damaged and they've started taking orders again long with advising that insurance would cover the stock loss so not surprised it's held up well

Vanilla · 23 Jun 2014 at 10:20

So what happened to ASOS then, in a nutshell? Just seen the huge drop......since feb really - decline in sales?