Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

silversurfer · 18 Jul 2020 at 21:44

Seems very reasonable to utilise money to some advantage like house finance. Ultimately markets derive the greatest use for money which I think is security. Thats where gold is ironic, first thing is it appears as jewellery but it actually represents security and that certain value it keeps and this is where the market will drive it to apparently even in recession. Its rising now and will continue because paper notes in the overall monetary base are altering so much, volatility is a bull market.

Am I right in thinking it's best to wait to invest in some bonds for the recovery to be complete for safety next time or is it really not worth it?

I think premier oil bonds were a better bet a while back, in its fixed repayment it must have done better then the shares have over a longer time period. Shares will outperform bonds if the company is growing I would expect, the only bonds I hold are via funds where someone has spent their whole career asking that question every day and trying to find the balance. APF is a company which finances mines and takes royalties for that, I like that idea so long as they lend well and that sector is valid

Canada is likely a good market for many years going forward, thought that for a while. https://youtu.be/dqApxbgNoa8?t=510

DireEmblem · 19 Jul 2020 at 21:57

Diageo and Roku are my next two top ups this month I reckon. Was tempted by JDW, but Diageo is a much safer option with similar upside potential. Roku I can see revenues continuing to increase as we see more people buying smart tvs.

ddoubleep · 20 Jul 2020 at 11:32

As a complete novice looking to go down the Stocks & Shares ISA route this year as my normal ISA has matured and rates are so low want to look at other avenues.

Having read on numerous postings here Vanguard seems on the surface the account where you can add your funds and just leave it without checking up on it too often. Tempted to do that for the other half to keep it simple and for myself go down the path of Trading 212 and do small purchases and see how I can learn and get on. The alternative was Cavendish or Wealthify for myself but unsure at the moment.

Should have jumped on something like this way before interest rates were peanuts on normal ISAs but hey ho. Any other novices care to mention where they started off or are at?

AKAK · 20 Jul 2020 at 13:18

I started off on HL mostly buying funds with occasional shares (profitable trades but high fixed costs ate a lot of it).

Having read John Bogle's book as a holiday read I will move over to Vanguard over the next 6 months as there are some convincing reasons to go for the lowest total cost passive funds and be content to earn the market return rather than try to beat it.

I am cautious of the timing currently though.

ddoubleep · 21 Jul 2020 at 10:33

AKAK said:
I started off on HL mostly buying funds with occasional shares (profitable trades but high fixed costs ate a lot of it).

Having read John Bogle's book as a holiday read I will move over to Vanguard over the next 6 months as there are some convincing reasons to go for the lowest total cost passive funds and be content to earn the market return rather than try to beat it.

I am cautious of the timing currently though.

I am also a bit cautious but having never done one before will not max it out from the start and add monthly to see how I get on. Just need to choose which fund now.

englishpremier · 21 Jul 2020 at 14:14

TSLA Q2 earnings report is out tomorrow after hours. Anyone still with skin in the game? If it reports a loss I'm expecting a good $600 or more to be wiped off the share price at least until next quarter or two. A profit and it's going to be over $2000 as the trackers buy into it. Fun to watch from the sidelines. Probably a bit nerve racking for anyone holding it.

booyaka · 21 Jul 2020 at 15:04

https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/36254/robinhood-cans-uk-launch/retail

Shame - looked very promising

booyaka · 21 Jul 2020 at 15:05

englishpremier said:
TSLA Q2 earnings report is out tomorrow after hours. Anyone still with skin in the game? If it reports a loss I'm expecting a good $600 or more to be wiped off the share price at least until next quarter or two. A profit and it's going to be over $2000 as the trackers buy into it. Fun to watch from the sidelines. Probably a bit nerve racking for anyone holding it.

It's never going to drop or increase that much on a single quarters earnings - what unearth are you basing that on??

HACO · 21 Jul 2020 at 15:11

englishpremier said:
TSLA Q2 earnings report is out tomorrow after hours. Anyone still with skin in the game? If it reports a loss I'm expecting a good $600 or more to be wiped off the share price at least until next quarter or two. A profit and it's going to be over $2000 as the trackers buy into it. Fun to watch from the sidelines. Probably a bit nerve racking for anyone holding it.

I'm still holding, hoping for it to go into S&P500.

413x · 21 Jul 2020 at 15:56

Yeah it's probably going to rocket up.

Damn, I wish I was in that train.

englishpremier · 21 Jul 2020 at 16:52

booyaka said:
It's never going to drop or increase that much on a single quarters earnings - what unearth are you basing that on??

The fact that it's highly volatile. It happily drops, rises by couple hundred over a day or two without any news. Trading volumes are likely to be large. The last time it beat expectations it rose significantly. 31% on last profitable quarter. A similar rise (to that of the last profitable quarter) would take it over $2k. It was up a further 9% yesterday after the delivery volumes were announced.

If it turns a profit, some of the $18bn worth of shorts are going to have issues, causings the price to ride higher as they scramble for shares plus, inclusion in the S&P as trackers start buying. Some of it will be priced in but it's only ever usually a percentage.

Failing to turn a profit would wipe out Mondays 9% gain, plus likely see further falls as those who were in for a quick buck, speculators, and the individuals (there are stories of people borrowing to buy Tesla shares) are going to cut their loses as their stops kick in.
Not saying TSLA is a bubble, but according to most, the stock is over priced. A poor Q2 could be the tipping point. Didn't something similar happen with VW in 2018?

Average daily trading volume is 14m, it was 17m on Monday. I'm guessing it's going to be between 15-20m in the 24 hours either side of the earnings being released, so in my uninformed opinion there is plenty of scope for movement.

AKAK · 21 Jul 2020 at 17:23

I think they will post a loss and therefore not join the S&P until later in the year...but I don't have anything on it.

413x · 21 Jul 2020 at 17:46

AKAK said:
I think they will post a loss and therefore not join the S&P until later in the year...but I don't have anything on it.

Think opposite.
Gonna be a good result and a nice increase towards 2k

xb8browney · 21 Jul 2020 at 20:48

I'm torn as to which way it'll go with TSLA

Mikeey · 21 Jul 2020 at 22:06

Remember that with all things stock market you must try to anticipate how much is already priced in. Tesla is a great example. Much of the recent appreciation may be to do with forward looking on optimistic Q2 numbers and higher chance of being in S&P soon enough. Upside may therefore be limited even with good results. Investing is all about anticipating the anticipation of others.

413x · 22 Jul 2020 at 17:46

Mikeey said:
Remember that with all things stock market you must try to anticipate how much is already priced in. Tesla is a great example. Much of the recent appreciation may be to do with forward looking on optimistic Q2 numbers and higher chance of being in S&P soon enough. Upside may therefore be limited even with good results. Investing is all about anticipating the anticipation of others.

Why its too late for me to get in.

More risk than reward at this point.

Seems very flat!

Only shares I've ever done well on are when they are oversold.
Most things I've bought on way up have bitten me

HACO · 22 Jul 2020 at 17:50

Mikeey said:
Remember that with all things stock market you must try to anticipate how much is already priced in. Tesla is a great example. Much of the recent appreciation may be to do with forward looking on optimistic Q2 numbers and higher chance of being in S&P soon enough. Upside may therefore be limited even with good results. Investing is all about anticipating the anticipation of others.

I believe Tesla becoming world's largest car manufacturer is already priced in at this valuation. $300b market cap is already like 35% of the global car industry's market cap while Tesla makes under 1% of global cars. I grant that Tesla is also a tech company (rather than a simple car company) but this valuation is completely over promise of future growth in both tech and car industry. Unless some people expect Tesla to rival Apple, Google, Microsoft or Amazon in valuation.

I'm still holding though. I've placed my bet over the earnings. Let's see how it goes.

englishpremier · 22 Jul 2020 at 20:31

Nothing is ever fully priced in. Partly, but never fully, it can't be when there is still a decent chance of poor performance or not meeting expectations.

On a separate note MSFT Q2 results come out today too 2:30 in whatever time zone Washington State is in. That one I am more interested in being a holder. The expectation is COVID will have helped to increase revenues, but I guess we'll see how much, also how much they have managed to eat into AWS market share.

silversurfer · 22 Jul 2020 at 21:07

They make 1% but receive a take from other makers, kinda gives them a larger part of the market by government mandate because everything they do is 'zero emissions'. Even though electric can come from burning coal and it does in usa afaik. ['2022 will be down to 22% of US electricity generated by coal fired plants']
Can covid help revenue while decreasing business in the overall economy, for a company the size of MSFT they require that overall GDP growth is probably a fair point. 1.5tn

Vid on the point of balancing and MSFT etc. Silver is going bonkers today, its always been in potential and Ive no idea about trading it really but I do own FRES which invariably returns back to £20, hard to know how to trade a lot of these stocks but FRES is part of FTSE thankfully
https://youtu.be/bTfiYKj1apM?t=217

https://ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/silver-usd-house-of-cards

Chris1712 · 22 Jul 2020 at 22:43

4 quarters in a row, just as the prophecy foretold. Let’s go, autobidder making money in Europe already aswell!