Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[DarrenM343]

Problem with Tesla is that you can zoom in and find multiple examples of a close fit with the bubble graph

Agree although bubbles form in the longer term but take less notice of the schematics, matching the graph. The stages and psychology/emotional aspects are the more interesting aspects to watch. Gold 2011, Bitcoin late 2017 it was clear to see.
A break below $326 could signal end of the return to normal stage. Reading around many already assuming new ATH incoming. A break above 503 of course invalidates this as the potential turnaround point then higher price likely.

 

[R.P.L]

Got to suspect that there's an almighty crash coming at some point, the central banks have printed so much money thinking Covid was going to be a complete economic catastrophe and it's not really turned out as bad as predicted.

I'm not sure I agree that the economic catastrophe isn't as bad as predicted. You can't shut down large parts of the economy for months without having a serious impact. I feel like there are still knock on effects to be felt, such as a lot of unemployment to come and a lot of junk debt to drag us down.

If I'm wrong and the economy does bounce back very quickly then I don't see how the loose policy during the pandemic will cause that to be a problem - ending up with more money than you thought you would is rarely a bad situation to be in

Unless you mean that in normalising policy they drag the markets down with them, but that would always be a problem (and one which I'm concerned that they'll try to avoid by never normalising policy again, which seems to be where we're heading) - there's no reason that they would have to do that more suddenly than if the pandemic and economic impact were as bad as / worse than feared.

 

[Chris1712]

Agree although bubbles form in the longer term but take less notice of the schematics, matching the graph. The stages and psychology/emotional aspects are the more interesting aspects to watch. Gold 2011, Bitcoin late 2017 it was clear to see.
A break below $326 could signal end of the denial stage. Reading around many already assuming new ATH incoming. A break above 503 of course invalidates this as the potential turnaround point then higher price likely.

None of this really matters if you're an investor, not a gambler. I've been in TSLA since 2013 and will be in them for a long time yet, buy buy buy.

Seems like GM invested $2bn into Nikola. That has driven (excuse the pun) up the price 30 plus per cent.

Nikola is pure vaporware, mark my words.

 

[DarrenM343]

None of this really matters if you're an investor, not a gambler. I've been in TSLA since 2013 and will be in them for a long time yet, buy buy buy.
Nikola is pure vaporware, mark my words.

Would you buy buy buy right now though ? With such a massive valuation? I agree about the investor vs gamblers definitely but still, if you buy at the top, it could be along time just to get back to breakeven and there's always a chance it might not even do that. There are of course strategies you can use though if you really believe in the company such as, buying more lower.

I still hold some, bought much lower but took out original investment + more. But I maintain my opinion that it's very overvalued at this present time.
Well done buying back in 2013. THat was the best time to buy. No mania, possibilities of Tesla going bust. This is a positive by the way, as that is the time of great risk to reward

 

[R.P.L]

Investing is still gambling. As @DarrenM343 points out, you can't ignore extreme price action just because you're in for the long haul (well you can, but...). Overbought is still overbought.

 

[Chris1712]

Would you buy buy buy right now though ? I agree about the investor vs gamblers definitely but still, if you buy at the top, it could be along time just to get back to breakeven and there's always a chance it might not even do that. There are of course strategies you can use though if you really believe in the company such as, buying more lower.

I still hold some, bought much lower but took out original investment + more. But I maintain my opinion that it's very overvalued at this present time.
Well done buying back in 2013. THat was the best time to buy. No mania, possibilities of Tesla going bust. This is a positive by the way, as that is the time of great risk to reward

Yes I agree it's a bit frothy right now! Ultimately I'm fairly confident even if I sold, I couldn't get back in under my current average - so why bother? Most of my buys came around 2016-2017 (Masterplan pt 2 sealed the deal for me) which has dragged it up a lot, but still quite low so happy to keep topping up now. Ultimately I'm only talking small amounts, I'm not wealthy by any means and don't even come close to filling up my ISA each year put it that way.

 

[Trusty]

Would you buy buy buy right now though ? With such a massive valuation? I agree about the investor vs gamblers definitely but still, if you buy at the top, it could be along time just to get back to breakeven and there's always a chance it might not even do that. There are of course strategies you can use though if you really believe in the company such as, buying more lower.

I still hold some, bought much lower but took out original investment + more. But I maintain my opinion that it's very overvalued at this present time.
Well done buying back in 2013. THat was the best time to buy. No mania, possibilities of Tesla going bust. This is a positive by the way, as that is the time of great risk to reward

The stock split is basically game over for the bears though, we are in a downward trend so i expect it'll test the $300 mark again, but if it holds, i'll be buying.

 

[EddScott]

None of this really matters if you're an investor, not a gambler. I've been in TSLA since 2013 and will be in them for a long time yet, buy buy buy.


Nikola is pure vaporware, mark my words.

Had to check I hadn't wondered in ADVFN by mistake!

 

[silversurfer]

Got to suspect that there's an almighty crash coming at some point, the central banks have printed so much money thinking Covid was going to be a complete economic catastrophe and it's not really turned out as bad as predicted.

They cannot unwind QE in any reasonable way most likely so its a loss of value. TSLA looks parabolic, it could return to '300' I guess and the company itself would be fine. Value works in contrast so perhaps the more reasonable way to be short tsla is with bias to long Toyota or some similar idea, I've not read anyone or any fund suggest as much but I prefer that idea over backing dollar vs tsla

Value might reset but nominally prices overall are going higher unless someone like Volcker appears on the scene. Or we leave dollar standard for IMF SDR Fiat standard in global trade which bails out the dollar scenario while degrading them much like the decline of Sterling over decades I guess.
Inflation, loose money causes lower growth globally I expect.

been coming for a while tbh, this is always an interesting graph to look at regarding the purchasing power of the dollar.



America has been in the position of being able to export its inflation because the dollar is the worlds reserve currency. FI's, MM's and CB's all reduce the supply because of that..

 

[Trusty]

Value might reset but nominally prices overall are going higher unless someone like Volcker appears on the scene. Or we leave dollar standard for IMF SDR Fiat standard in global trade which bails out the dollar scenario while degrading them much like the decline of Sterling over decades I guess.
Inflation, loose money causes lower growth globally I expect.

Yea, no doubt inflation will start to kick in. When Napier, Druckenmiller and Buffet all signal that inflation will take hold, people need to sit up and listen. Would be interesting if someone like Volker came about. Looks unlikely though going by Powell's recent speech that higher interest rates will not be coming.



People should prepare for that, precious metals and crypto.

Regarding the SDR, it won't be a fiat currency, fiat is dead, it'll be a digital asset, based on blockchain, something deflationary. My bet is it'll be Ripple and XRP.
I also believe that the world will try the Bancor system, instead of Bancors, it'll be a digital asset backed by gold. Although technically it'll be a unit of account, CB's will be able to trade gold for this digital asset, but they won't be able to trade the digital asset for gold. It'll be a one way trade designed to help countries that find their trade deficits lagging. It would make the whole system fairer, it would stop countries like China manipulating their currency, and the people of China would actually get to see some of the benefits of their production. And it would stop countries like Germany sitting on a huge trade surplus, they would be forced to put the money to work.

 

[inferno]

I need to set up and manage an ISA for my mum and my sister, what is the best company to use?

I need to to be able to view it on mobile platform, buy the sp500 and perhaps fundsmith.

 

[DarrenM343]

I need to set up and manage an ISA for my mum and my sister, what is the best company to use?

I need to to be able to view it on mobile platform, buy the sp500 and perhaps fundsmith.

Not sure about best as they can be competitive in different areas. A few large brokers are Hargreaves Lansdown and YouInvest, both publicly traded companies too. Not sure what you mean by "Buy the S&P", but the best way to get exposure to that might be a simple ETF, such as symbol IUSA (iShares S&P 500) which is an ETF tradable on London market. To trade US stocks inside an ISA you will also need to complete W8-BEN forms first I believe. Trading fees are higher with Hargreaves.

 

[booyaka]

I need to set up and manage an ISA for my mum and my sister, what is the best company to use?

I need to to be able to view it on mobile platform, buy the sp500 and perhaps fundsmith.

To start with - your mum and your sister need to setup the plan, make the payments themselves.

I'll be blunt here -----

Are you saying you are going to invest the money on behalf of your sister/mum?? What's the aim for their money?? Why are you investing it for them? What makes you think you can do a better job that they can??

Be VERY VERY careful if you are investing/managing money for someone else, including family. This can cause long term issues in a family if things don't go well with the investments. (Trust me, I've seen it many times in my job).

I would strongly suggest against investing money/trading on behalf of someone else. Help them with choosing options for investing but bear in mind that your mum and your sister may have very different attitudes to risk, investment timescales, outcomes for the money.

Be very careful.

 

[Russinating]

Nvidia are acquiring ARM... https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/...nv-int-cwmfg-31052#cid=gnl_nv-int-cwmfg_en-gb

 

[Martynt74]

I was chatting to my dad the other day about his shares as a company i used to work at which he invested in pretty much double but have now dropped to around 10% above his purchase price. Turns out he never sold them.

I also suggested Gulf Keystone years ago to him, he bought but never sold them when he could've made 9k and he's now down 5k.

He's often a little cagey around money but i asked if most of his shares had recovered as he was down around 30k. He said he still was down and sent me a screenshot. I'm not surprised. Around 70% of his portfolio is based on oil/energy with very little diversification.

He's a classic case of people who have money, want to invest but have very little idea about financials and then relys on tips. Unfortunately he also has an impression of me as the fairly reckless 20yr old i was around 15 years ago and not as who i am now, so most of the actual advice i give him is ignored. I pointed out his portfolio flaw and he seems to have just ignored it and replied about other things.

For someone with a lot of friends who are into investing, you'd think they'd have given him at least a little advice!

 

[leoncuprar]

Iag down 30% today.... Ouch

Wonder how quickly they'll bounce back once a vaccine comes out, if they survive at all I guess..

 

[Simon]

Iag down 30% today.... Ouch

Wonder how quickly they'll bounce back once a vaccine comes out, if they survive at all I guess..

They aren't down 30%

 

[booyaka]

I was chatting to my dad the other day about his shares as a company i used to work at which he invested in pretty much double but have now dropped to around 10% above his purchase price. Turns out he never sold them.

I also suggested Gulf Keystone years ago to him, he bought but never sold them when he could've made 9k and he's now down 5k.

He's often a little cagey around money but i asked if most of his shares had recovered as he was down around 30k. He said he still was down and sent me a screenshot. I'm not surprised. Around 70% of his portfolio is based on oil/energy with very little diversification.

He's a classic case of people who have money, want to invest but have very little idea about financials and then relys on tips. Unfortunately he also has an impression of me as the fairly reckless 20yr old i was around 15 years ago and not as who i am now, so most of the actual advice i give him is ignored. I pointed out his portfolio flaw and he seems to have just ignored it and replied about other things.

For someone with a lot of friends who are into investing, you'd think they'd have given him at least a little advice!

By no means having a "pop" at your dad - but as you say - a classic example of people just blindly following tips/online forums/newspaper tipsters without actually looking at the bigger picture.

Seen 100's of people over the years that have done this. "most" people (not everyone) would be better off with a simple portfolio of funds/unit trusts spread across a sensible attitude to risk in a balanced portfolio of assets/geographical range.

I get people want to do better - but most people just lump on the first thing they see on the news (Bitcoin/Tesla/Lloyds/Zoom to name but a few recently) and end up getting burned badly.

Did a review with my longest standing client and we looked back over the 18 years I've managed her pension fund - average return (after charges) 7.8% per year, for 18 years. Solid, if "unexciting" spread of funds, but who wouldn't take that over 18 years.

 

[413x]

They aren't down 30%

They are.

 

[Jokester]

IAG are up about 8% today - the BBC are saying down 30%, but the data says something completely different.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c77jz3mdmy3t/iag

I dunno where the BBC get their market data recently, but it's total gash - they didn't report oil prices for something like 2months!

Edit:
Looks like there's been some sort of share dilution or something been happening the last few months?