Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Soldato
Joined
20 Dec 2004
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15,844
Bored so decided to try and trade the swings a little, just dumped all my SMT before close. No doubt it will defy the usual trend and surge on open tomorrow rather than pull back :p
 
Caporegime
Joined
21 Oct 2002
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26,262
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Here
No comments about BP? Seem to be raising their dividends and have announced a 1.4bn share buy back scheme.

Hopefully can be the start of them pulling back to where they were.
Hope so but the dividend increase of 4 % a year till 2025 isn’t enough to make it back to where it was. after the 10.5c to 5.25c/ share dividend cut last year (now 5.46c) Just need the profits to stay up as 60% will be used to do share buy backs. Looking promising after hitting the debt target early.

potential is there for sure l, especially if they can hit the 8-10% return they are acrimony for on renewables. they go ex dividend on thurs.
 
Caporegime
Joined
29 Jan 2008
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58,912
@dowie Just to add, while there could be scams, the thing people need to know is, if i go and walk around london and find 100 homeless people on drugs, put them in a suit and sit them infront of a computer, and have them pick stocks at random.

Yup, for sure, I did try to mention that albeit only briefly:

"question is how are you going to find them among the others who might have just gotten lucky for a bit or who are hiding behind unrealised losses etc..."

Just to expand on the second aspect mentioned briefly there, that relates to how they account for performance - this might have changed or might vary between the providers but seemed to be the case a few years ago with some of these sites - essentially they report only realised gains and losses so there is or was an obvious scam move in that one of these "top traders", upon having a positon go against them, could simply not close that position so as to not affect their stats - either waiting for it to come back or just hang in there while accumulating whatever kickbacks they get from the site.

The same applies to professionals, the difference is professionals dont take wild risks so the % are much more conservative vs the benchmark

Not as far as short term trading is concerned else they'd not be in business. In the very short term - intraday stuff, which mostly involves some form of liquidity provision, you're talking about firms trading with their own capital, they'd simply not exist if they couldn't make money. For longer time frames you have say systematic hedge funds, they're taking positions simultaneously in dozens of instruments knowing that overall they have an edge. Any given individual trade might be close to a coin flip in terms of whether it comes out in profit but overall they profit.

That's the other thing that seems so flawed about anyone purporting to have some great trading signals for trades lasting for a few days, some of the biggest hedgefunds/CTAs on the planet with teams of statisticians are also taking these directional punts in FX, Oil, Equity indices etc.. and plenty of those individual positions will lose money, yet some random punter on the signal service really thinks he's got a serious edge and is able to make money consistently from taking one or two positions at a time, lasting several days, in some of these instruments.

Signals are not the best way to invest imo. Mostly you tend to end up loosing money as you start second guessing , missing signals, not being able to stomach when trades dont turn out. I found it easier to make a decision for myself rather than use a signal service/indicator suite etc.

Missing signals or indeed second guessing isn't necessarily the reason you start loosing money tbh... that sort of assumes there is some value in the signal in the first place, which in most cases seems rather doubtful.
 
Soldato
Joined
13 Jul 2004
Posts
20,079
Location
Stanley Hotel, Colorado
No comments about BP? Seem to be raising their dividends and have announced a 1.4bn share buy back scheme.

Hopefully can be the start of them pulling back to where they were.

Full glass situation, decent oil price hope it stays that way and the share price should accumulate. Shell could gain 900p from 14 to 23 ideally, big gap right there i hope it gets filled but who knows.

Oil price struggling is some indicator of world GDP growth not being where it should be. Thats likely a reoccuring theme


low production cost of $3.7/bbl
Always interesting overview on https://www.malcysblog.com/
GENL seems to have better figures then big oil

PSX I like also with the idea it can handle various oil price levels. ET WMB are other names for gas infrastructure I wish I had bought back a year ago. CNA much disliked ?

 
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Associate
Joined
25 Aug 2008
Posts
947
Loosely Stockmarket related - but does anyone watch any YouTube channels, or call up people that bend the truth to create clickbait videos for profit?

Some are terrible, but I love the way they like to delete comments, yet call out the need for freedom of speech!

Anyhow I am happy the markets are up today, long may that continue :)
 
Caporegime
Joined
29 Jan 2008
Posts
58,912
Loosely Stockmarket related - but does anyone watch any YouTube channels, or call up people that bend the truth to create clickbait videos for profit?

Some are terrible, but I love the way they like to delete comments, yet call out the need for freedom of speech!

I wouldn't bother tbh... I mean these things are all over the place, unfortunately, if you've searched for a brokerage or clicked on anything of this nature you'll get adverts all over facebook, Instagram etc.. with these clowns trying to sell their trading courses etc..

I'll try to point out obvious scams and stuff that is a waste of money + people posting dubious claims etc.. in places like this thread (or the crypto forum) as it is worth countering disinformation, but you can't really change everyone's beliefs - people still believe in homeopathy, chiropractic, astrology etc.. and the same irrational beliefs persist in some areas around trading.

People are fans of subscribing to "gurus", believing things at face value without any credible reason or evidence for those beliefs - the guru said that you should watch for this magic line to cross this one etc.. it's part of his system etc..

In reality, most books aimed at retail traders aren't written by practitioners, most people offering coaching or training courses or selling signals are not and have not been professional traders. Of the few that have they're generally misrepresenting the fact they were just trading at a bank (and not on a prop desk) and what that entailed. Or perhaps they're an ex-floor trader that didn't survive the transition to the screen yet now they're selling their guidance and wisdom... instead of simply making money by trading!

Still, there seems to be plenty of people out there regularly making money by flogging courses, signals, individual coaching etc.. to retail traders. The books and forums & their FAQs/guides are a bit less scammy, even well-intentioned sometimes but are generally of little value too, unfortunately.
 
Soldato
Joined
20 Dec 2004
Posts
15,844
I wouldn't bother tbh... I mean these things are all over the place, unfortunately, if you've searched for a brokerage or clicked on anything of this nature you'll get adverts all over facebook, Instagram etc.. with these clowns trying to sell their trading courses etc..

I'll try to point out obvious scams and stuff that is a waste of money + people posting dubious claims etc.. in places like this thread (or the crypto forum) as it is worth countering disinformation, but you can't really change everyone's beliefs - people still believe in homeopathy, chiropractic, astrology etc.. and the same irrational beliefs persist in some areas around trading.

People are fans of subscribing to "gurus", believing things at face value without any credible reason or evidence for those beliefs - the guru said that you should watch for this magic line to cross this one etc.. it's part of his system etc..

In reality, most books aimed at retail traders aren't written by practitioners, most people offering coaching or training courses or selling signals are not and have not been professional traders. Of the few that have they're generally misrepresenting the fact they were just trading at a bank (and not on a prop desk) and what that entailed. Or perhaps they're an ex-floor trader that didn't survive the transition to the screen yet now they're selling their guidance and wisdom... instead of simply making money by trading!

Still, there seems to be plenty of people out there regularly making money by flogging courses, signals, individual coaching etc.. to retail traders. The books and forums & their FAQs/guides are a bit less scammy, even well-intentioned sometimes but are generally of little value too, unfortunately.

That's it in a nutshell. If someone was any good at trading they'd be making money off it, not making a pittance from YouTube videos.

The best way to get professional 'advice' is to buy actively managed funds, and let the actual professional fund managers make the decisions for you.
 
Soldato
Joined
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Location
Hondon de las Nieves, Spain
Soldato
Joined
21 Jan 2010
Posts
22,229
Oh I see - absolutely not :cry:

These guys have a massive portfolio - you'd only need to copy of a few of their gambles to bankrupt yourself. I see from the leader board of the one Martyn posted that they are playing with decent money and still only winning 70% of the time. Sods law I would be the 30% :p

Edit: as suspected, this is one of their leaders:

Average ROI

3.12%

Average Profit Generated

$10,175.26

Edit: It looks like they take their growth stat on a moving average. So the 80% growth for one of their traders is a comeback from losing 90% of it the month before!
 
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