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Ukraine Crisis

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by areksnumbr1sxylady, 22 Feb 2014.

  1. VincentHanna

    Capodecina

    Joined: 30 Jul 2013

    Posts: 23,443

    You were the one who implied Putin thinks Biden is a joke.

    You think he respected the previous President?
     
  2. robgmun

    Capodecina

    Joined: 30 Apr 2006

    Posts: 16,470

    Location: London

    Putin may have not respected Trump, but he wasn't going to mess with him because of his unpredictability.

    You don't mess with crazy, and that seemed to have kept Putin in check.
     
  3. Lord-Jaffa

    Soldato

    Joined: 29 Jul 2004

    Posts: 6,347

    So Biden has withheld congress approved funds for Ukraine, that sounds so familiar, I can't quite pin down where I have heard it before. Anyone for some Peach Mints?

    Russia wants that water for Crimea and nobody will stop them from getting it.
     
    Last edited: 15 Apr 2021
  4. ianh

    Soldato

    Joined: 12 Jul 2007

    Posts: 5,872

    Location: Saudi and occasionally Stoke.

    This is the actual reason this'll kick-off, regardless of all the posturing/sword-rattling that Russia will do to see how far the new US administration can be pushed. Crimea needs a fresh water supply as the Ukrainians cut-off the existing one (the North Crimea Canal), which supplied 90% of the total, back in 2014 and they're now running dry with it costing the Russians a lot of money to keep them supplied so, in their minds, they need to "confiscate" just a small section of land to get access back to this fresh water source and they'll use force to do so.

    This fresh water issue has been known about, and reported about, for years.

    [​IMG]

    I think that the above portion of Yellow area would be the prime target for any offensive, gaining control of the main fresh water supply, whilst showing military strength, shoring up home political worries and all over a small bit of land just 40 miles by 100 miles which the rest of the world won't fight over.

    Of course the Ukrainians will fight back, and hard, which is why so much Artillery etc is being brought in i.e. stuff that has the range to fire from "Crimean" territory so gives Russia the excuse that it hasn't put troops into the "Ukraine" which everyone knows is a load of cobblers.
     
  5. StriderX

    Caporegime

    Joined: 18 Mar 2008

    Posts: 27,859

    Wouldn't Ukraine just sabotage the canal in that instance?
     
  6. VincentHanna

    Capodecina

    Joined: 30 Jul 2013

    Posts: 23,443

    Literally the only source I can find for this "news" is the 'One America news network' and they don't cite any sources other than "reports say"

     
  7. ianh

    Soldato

    Joined: 12 Jul 2007

    Posts: 5,872

    Location: Saudi and occasionally Stoke.

    Yeap, the blocked off part of the canal inside Ukraine (approx 10 miles length) is already dried out and has sustained heavy damage from crumbling away but I'd be amazed if the Ukrainians hadn't got some form of a more permanent demolition* planned. The issue for them would be time needed to actually destroy enough of the canal in a large enough way to make it completely unrepairable, as there's only 10 miles of terrain needed to secure the dam causing the blockage and just 40 miles needed to secure the whole canal length to prevent further damage and that wouldn't take long, assuming Russian SF, artillery & air power etc helps out. Worst case for Ukraine is that Russia takes the land and just digs another canal over say 4-6 months, then Ukraine would have to build another bigger dam further upstream so the Russians then have to take that and it just continues onward. Best case for Ukraine is that Russia bites off more than it can chew from a newly equipped and trained Ukrainian military and loses enough young soldiers that it makes Putin's stance untenable and the Russians themselves get rid of him, but they'd need to see a hell of a lot of dead young soldiers before that'd happen, which sucks.

    *Demolition - just some simple explosives won't damaged anything badly enough to render it completely unrepairable, rather it'd just add a few months delay. It'd need either full scale mechanical demolition work which is time consuming and unlikely or (and this just wouldn't happen) something catastrophic like irradiating it to make it instantly unusable.

    Here's an image of the canal before/after to get a judge of it's size -

    Before

    [​IMG]

    After - along most of it's length it looks similar to this image with concrete lining crumbling, needs dredging etc before use alongside who knows what else.

    [​IMG]

    and this is where the dam is in relation to the canal and the front lines -

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: 15 Apr 2021
  8. Clearcut

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 28 Jul 2004

    Posts: 1,639

    Excellent post that.
     
  9. XeNoN89

    Sgarrista

    Joined: 6 Mar 2007

    Posts: 8,542

    Location: SW19

    Apparently Biden chickened out on sending the ships to the Black Sea.
     
  10. Malevolence

    Capodecina

    Joined: 21 Oct 2011

    Posts: 16,859

    [​IMG]
     
  11. CaptainRAVE

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 21 Nov 2004

    Posts: 38,546

    China and Russia just don’t care about the US anymore. What a joke. There’ll be the usual ‘sanctions’ against a few individuals that Russia also doesn’t care about. I wonder what Russia told the US behind the scenes. Not the first time they’ve backed down recently.
     
  12. ianh

    Soldato

    Joined: 12 Jul 2007

    Posts: 5,872

    Location: Saudi and occasionally Stoke.

  13. ubersonic

    Capodecina

    Joined: 26 May 2009

    Posts: 21,110

    I can't believe the Ukrainian civil war is entering it's seventh year, seems like only yesterday we were discussing the coup against Yanukovych.

    The funny thing is there are still people who claim Russia isn't supplying the eastern Ukrainian rebels, it's been seven years, granted there was a lot of ammunition stockpiled in the Ukrainian bases/etc in the east but not enough to wage a seven year war, the western Ukrainian forces have had to source foreign support to keep their side going so there's no way the east could have done it without foreign aid.
     
  14. StriderX

    Caporegime

    Joined: 18 Mar 2008

    Posts: 27,859

    Presumably to test the Turkish government's ability to keep their mouths shut?

    Or is it just deflection?

    Also, while it's likely in contravention of a Geneva convention or some other international agreement, poisoning the river so that it's entirely unusable was basically what I figured would need to happen to keep Russia away or force them into a full-scale conflict.
     
  15. ianh

    Soldato

    Joined: 12 Jul 2007

    Posts: 5,872

    Location: Saudi and occasionally Stoke.

    There's no "keep this voyage secret" part of the 1936 Montreux treaty which says all non-Black Sea adjacent navies must tell Turkey when they are going to traverse the Bosphorus strait to get into/out of the Black Sea. They have to do this 8 days prior to the voyage and Turkey often publicises warship travel, irrespective of the nation involved - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits
     
  16. Rroff

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 13 Oct 2006

    Posts: 76,217

    So apparently Putin saying he won't have a discussion/meeting with Biden in relation to this - not really a good sign.

    Generally with Putin that is a sign his mind is set on something which doesn't really tell us much but whatever it is he considers such a meeting a waste of time.

    Whether that is Biden just blinked and Putin has his political end and will draw down or maybe will see it as weakness and press home the advantage or he is already intent on some other course of action.
     
  17. Rroff

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 13 Oct 2006

    Posts: 76,217

    Can't verify but this is the kind of stuff you don't want to see in this situation:

     
  18. dowie

    Capo Crimine

    Joined: 29 Jan 2008

    Posts: 52,534

    Yup, that is a very bad sign and really is the clincher here... had Putin agreed to some big summit with the US in a few months time then an invasion of Ukraine immediately beforehand would be super awkward and render the summit a bit farcical... I guess turning it down keeps that on the table.

    Tellingly the two US warships that were due to arrive in the black sea seem to have been warned off by Russia:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ncels-deployment-of-two-warships-to-black-sea
    Also, twitter seems to be having some issues at the moment but I did see some reports of apparently new sandbags appearing in front of buildings in the occupied areas - if true then what do they know about what is coming...
     
  19. Rroff

    Man of Honour

    Joined: 13 Oct 2006

    Posts: 76,217

    I linked one in my post above but it doesn't seem to be loading correctly at the moment. It is one of the steps before they start pulling officials back/evacuating and setting up supply lines which would indicate rather heavily towards something serious.
     
  20. dowie

    Capo Crimine

    Joined: 29 Jan 2008

    Posts: 52,534

    They've already got supply lines, that isn't something that needs to be set up tbh...

    Claims of more beds in hospitals here though in addition to sandbags: