Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Rroff]

They've already got supply lines, that isn't something that needs to be set up tbh...

If they are/were planning a major incursion or invasion of Ukraine it would necessitate logistics on a far larger scale than the current capacities - new roads, new rail and/or requisitioning transport infrastructure, etc. it would be something that showed their hand so likely to be left as long as possible - personally I could see if things are going that way they would try and use Victory Day and other events in May as a cover.

Also just not seeing the level of build up of irregular forces (meat grinder) and heavy regular forces that would be necessary in that eventuality - again something I'd be keeping a watchful eye for around the end of April/early May.

 

[dowie]

If they are/were planning a major incursion or invasion of Ukraine it would necessitate logistics on a far larger scale than the current capacities - new roads, new rail/QUOTE]

Doubtful, what is the basis for that claim?

I doubt very much you'll see them having to build a railway before invading. If they want to invade they could do so next week.

 

[Rroff]

For something the scale of Ukraine they are going to be sending vast amounts of equipment, man power, etc. one way and casualties and damaged vehicles and so on the other - beyond what current infrastructure is designed for both in direct flow, functionality (i.e. loading and unloading military vehicles) and volume.

That will need to be in place at the latest very quickly behind any initial push and more realistically work seen days before.

 

[RoboCod]

This is an interesting site

https://rochan-consulting.com/imint-analysis-39th-helicopter-regiment-dzhankoy-air-base-crimea/

Looking at the Dzhankoi Airbase there seem to be no indicators to suggest that a military build-up is occurring. The number of helicopters at the base had not increased whereas the base itself is not a subject of logistics accumulation.

The S-400 battalion remains at a peacetime posture indicating a lack of preparation for adversarial air operations.

 

[ianh]

For something the scale of Ukraine they are going to be sending vast amounts of equipment, man power, etc. one way and casualties and damaged vehicles and so on the other - beyond what current infrastructure is designed for both in direct flow, functionality (i.e. loading and unloading military vehicles) and volume.

That will need to be in place at the latest very quickly behind any initial push and more realistically work seen days before.

IMHO thats an out-dated understanding of modern military logistics. Virtually all modernised militaries nowadays are equipped and trained to operate "off road" for most of the deployment specifically because of logistics issues caused by being forced to stick to existing infrastructure, as shown in dramatic fashion by the rapid defeat of the Iraqi Army of '91 which showed the world what a modern Army operating away from roads, at night, in all weathers with rapid logistics tucked up right behind it can do to a 70's trained/operated Army which relied on good weather, daytime and roads to move around on, leading to events like the Highway of Death and the Armoured force left pincer move through the desert into right flank of the Iraqi Army etc. All the ex-WP countries saw how far behind the US they were at that point and any US "enemies" had to change how it operates once they saw that defeat.

So I don't think we start to see Russia suddenly starting to build new roads or rail-yards/rail-lines upto the front lines a few days before an attack. They don't need to, they'll just follow their current doctrine and keep all movement both ways "off-road" once it kicks off for the front line forces, including all supplies which'll be trucked in as usual and any time critical things would possibly be heli-lifted from further back rail heads to supply depots closer to the front (those will be the only things getting bigger right now). It's one of the reasons they've picked this time of year to potentially carry out an attack, as the ground is now starting to firm up after the Ukrainian winter which usually turns the land into a boggy nightmare, making off-road travel much easier on the wheeled vehicles (scouts, supplies etc).

Thats just my opinion though, doesn't mean I'm right.

 

[Rroff]

IMHO thats an out-dated understanding of modern military logistics. Virtually all modernised militaries nowadays are equipped and trained to operate "off road" for most of the deployment specifically because of logistics issues caused by being forced to stick to existing infrastructure, as shown in dramatic fashion by the rapid defeat of the Iraqi Army of '91 which showed the world what a modern Army operating away from roads, at night, in all weathers with rapid logistics tucked up right behind it can do to a 70's trained/operated Army which relied on good weather, daytime and roads to move around on, leading to events like the Highway of Death and the Armoured force left pincer move through the desert into right flank of the Iraqi Army etc. All the ex-WP countries saw how far behind the US they were at that point and any US "enemies" had to change how it operates once they saw that defeat.

So I don't think we start to see Russia suddenly starting to build new roads or rail-yards/rail-lines upto the front lines a few days before an attack. They don't need to, they'll just follow their current doctrine and keep all movement both ways "off-road" once it kicks off for the front line forces, including all supplies which'll be trucked in as usual and any time critical things would possibly be heli-lifted from further back rail heads to supply depots closer to the front (those will be the only things getting bigger right now). It's one of the reasons they've picked this time of year to potentially carry out an attack, as the ground is now starting to firm up after the Ukrainian winter which usually turns the land into a boggy nightmare, making off-road travel much easier on the wheeled vehicles (scouts, supplies etc).

Thats just my opinion though, doesn't mean I'm right.

Russia still has one leg in that era - Syria, etc. gave them a chance to refine modern logistics but they are still somewhat dependent on it.

(It is one of the areas recent modernisation of their forces looked to address - one of the few areas Russia is worried about when it comes to the UK is our ability to rapidly logistic half way around the globe potentially out manoeuvring them strategically - not ignoring some of their heavy lift capibilities)

 

[dowie]

For something the scale of Ukraine they are going to be sending vast amounts of equipment, man power, etc. one way and casualties and damaged vehicles and so on the other - beyond what current infrastructure is designed for both in direct flow, functionality (i.e. loading and unloading military vehicles) and volume.

That will need to be in place at the latest very quickly behind any initial push and more realistically work seen days before.

No it won’t. In fact IF we have an invasion in the next month or two I doubt you’ll be able to point towards any new railway line etc... It’s not WW2!

 

[Rroff]

No it won’t. In fact IF we have an invasion in the next month or two I doubt you’ll be able to point towards any new railway line etc... It’s not WW2!

Not whole new railways but if Russia does go into Ukraine in a major way there will be widespread transport infrastructure work - Russia's military on a larger scale still has one leg in that 70s era.

(The front lines right now you'd think it was more WW1 :s)

 

[dowie]

Not whole new railways but if Russia does go into Ukraine in a major way there will be widespread transport infrastructure work - Russia's military on a larger scale still has one leg in that 70s era.

(The front lines right now you'd think it was more WW1 :s)

There are multiple roads already connecting Ukraine and Russia. the US ran logistics from Pakistan into Afghanistan in convoys of lorries along arguably much worse terrain, roads etc..

 

[Rroff]

There are multiple roads already connecting Ukraine and Russia. the US ran logistics from Pakistan into Afghanistan in convoys of lorries along arguably much worse terrain, roads etc..

You are concentrating too much on individual elements - the infrastructure existing isn't adapted to the scale of military use a major move on Ukraine would require.

The US situation very different though - not against a conventional military with the same foreign support, etc.

 

[dowie]

You are concentrating too much on individual elements - the infrastructure existing isn't adapted to the scale of military use a major move on Ukraine would require.

Why not?

 

[Rroff]

A lot of it is existing civilian infrastructure - not designed for large scale, longer term, movement of tanks, etc.

 

[ubersonic]

If they are/were planning a major incursion or invasion of Ukraine it would necessitate logistics on a far larger scale than the current capacities

Not really, the loyalist forces wouldn't stand a chance, it would make the second coalition invasion of Iraq look like a decent defence lol. I mean the main reason the Ukrainian civil war has been going on since 2014 is because the Ukrainian military sucks, the eastern rebels may be getting ammo/fuel supplies from Russia but their equipment is the same outdated Soviet stuff that the loyalist forces use, most of their equipment came from eastern Ukrainian bases/caches/warehouses that defected or were captured when the east rebelled.

If Putin did decide Russia was going to take Ukraine, and NATO/EU/etc did nothing then it would be over in under two weeks (in fact I think Putin even tried to use that fact as evidence that he wasn't invading in 2014 when Ukraine claimed he was?).

 

[dowie]

A lot of it is existing civilian infrastructure - not designed for large scale, longer term, movement of tanks, etc.

A motorway or other major road doesn't need to be designed for moving tanks, they move way way more cars literally every day than the total number of tanks that would need to be moved...

I don't think the movement of tanks is a particularly big drama here, nor is it going to constitute a large % of overall movements of vehicles back and forth, plenty of lorries needed to go back and forth with other supplies etc..

I get that there are trenches etc.. but it isn't WW1, they don't need to build some new railway line here etc.. US forces were supplied along dirt roads in Afghanistan, that the enemy is or isn't conventional doesn't change too much there.

 

[ubersonic]

They've already got supply lines, that isn't something that needs to be set up tbh...

This, a lot of people forget that most of the infrastructure in the country now known as Ukraine was originally built specifically to move supplies/weapons/etc between the Ukrainian SSR and the Russian SSR (and also out into more western SSRs).

 

[Rroff]

Not really, the loyalist forces wouldn't stand a chance, it would make the second coalition invasion of Iraq look like a decent defence lol. I mean the main reason the Ukrainian civil war has been going on since 2014 is because the Ukrainian military sucks, the eastern rebels may be getting ammo/fuel supplies from Russia but their equipment is the same outdated Soviet stuff that the loyalist forces use, most of their equipment came from eastern Ukrainian bases/caches/warehouses that defected or were captured when the east rebelled.

If Putin did decide Russia was going to take Ukraine, and NATO/EU/etc did nothing then it would be over in under two weeks (in fact I think Putin even tried to use that fact as evidence that he wasn't invading in 2014 when Ukraine claimed he was?).

While things have moved on somewhat Russia's previous adventures of this kind of nature haven't exactly gone smoothly - for one many of their soldiers have little motivation to be there vs the motivations of those defending and it will depend somewhat on how much Ukraine gets supplemented by stuff like US ATGMs, etc. as well.

A motorway or other major road doesn't need to be designed for moving tanks, they move way way more cars literally every day than the total number of tanks that would need to be moved...

I don't think the movement of tanks is a particularly big drama here, nor is it going to constitute a large % of overall movements of vehicles back and forth, plenty of lorries needed to go back and forth with other supplies etc..

I get that there are trenches etc.. but it isn't WW1, they don't need to build some new railway line here etc.. US forces were supplied along dirt roads in Afghanistan, that the enemy is or isn't conventional doesn't change too much there.

This, a lot of people forget that most of the infrastructure in the country now known as Ukraine was originally built specifically to move supplies/weapons/etc between the Ukrainian SSR and the Russian SSR (and also out into more western SSRs).

That is true - a lot of the highways are very straight and setup for tank movement (example https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@48.9...4!1sM_xqfuIVVc34H1S1QMWNHw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 ) but efficiently supporting a large scale ongoing situation is another matter again and a lot will depend on the efficiency of their logistic chains (unless Ukraine straight up crumples).

Keep your eyes on the intel feeds - I guarantee if this is going to go serious we'll start to see reports of infrastructure work of this nature on a bigger scale.

 

[Malevolence]

Speaking of dodgy Russians, these two certainly get about a bit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56790053

Of course, it's all a terrible coincidence though.

 

[The Running Man]

Speaking of dodgy Russians, these two certainly get about a bit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56790053

Of course, it's all a terrible coincidence though.

Strange timing 6 years later, just when we need some anti Russian propaganda

 

[Nitefly]

Strange timing 6 years later, just when we need some anti Russian propaganda

 

[alchal]

Strange timing 6 years later, just when we need some anti Russian propaganda

Lolwut, I bet the poisonings never happened, the little green men were just western forces or something to obviously frame Russia, Putin's critics are all Western spies, gay people are evil, women need daily beatings, black people don't belong there, Putin is not corrupt and has no billion pound mansion.
The airliner was shot down by Ukraine or the west etc

Did I miss anything?
Gggrrr the evil west.
Long live the glorious USSR, I mean Putin's little empire.

Anyway.

They have moved airborne control aircraft to the region now.