In journeys ownership equation, I'd add, against the ev:
- the Insurance cost, the earlier quoted £600 for a model3, versus £250 I pay on a 320i, OK - that offsets the 0%ved on the bev.
- The future 2nd hand bev values - with rapid evolution of the market, plus, concerns that battery longevity, whilst Tesla may have mastered it, does not necessarily hold true for other manufacturers, means, I'd use a PCP to mitigate the risk, albeit, having to then, mollycoddle, a car I don't own.
Insurance is difficult, until its a bit more set in its probably safer to assume its cost neutral to a similar value ICE car.
Insurance is more dictated on what the market will bear than actual costs. There were two terms in insurance when I worked in it, write for profit and write for volume, it would tend to swing in cycles.
Now go back to the point I wrote about the market, whilst new and faddy I would expect these people to be gouged a little. Over time it would likely redress as volumes equal a little more.
One of the interesting ones could come in that if all the have to have a manual to drive at 10/10ths of possible speed on the road become a disproportionate number of the drivers, refusing to switch to "milk floats" etc it could cause a skew to loading ICE cars. Its difficult to see and will depend on how different actuaries across the market see evidence of patterns, plus what the ratings guys think they can get away with.
The argument for second hand bevs is stronger. Yes we will see some evidence of declining batteries but if that mainly affects range and not efficiency then the cost of ownership angle skews heavily to the direction of a BEV. Critical will be maintaining enough charge, without getting silly on either efficiency or range.
When cars get to 5 years or so the depreciation impact starts to be become single digits of the original price.
Taking journeys example for year 6
Lets assume both cars take 8% impact of depreciation or so
The cost of "fuel" becomes far more relevant than the depreciation.
Just like with ICE cars there will be a sweet spot for relatively cheap, pretty decent cars. Whether the BEV will mirror the ICE or have a different trend is open for debate, not enough volume and too early in lifecycle to really get to grips with a sensible BEV reduction until more are available at lower prices.
Supply and demand can do funny things (being offered more than I paid for a brand new impreza at 2 weeks old when they had a 9 month delay from the factory for example).
I dont know, but I suspect someone like Johnny can advise if the efficiency is likely to drop with the battery degradation, or if it will just be the range (from lower held charge).
My basic physics tells me you will just consume less input and have an ever reducing max storage, in effect keeping efficiency per mile the same. Unlike an ICE car where as we know there is a tail off in efficiency which varies significantly per make and due to factors such as servicing, mechanical sympathy etc
At 5 years old, Tesla M3s could be absolute bargains for budget motoring vs ICE. (But then again supply vs demand will kick in, and that may force prices to remain relatively high).
What the example Journey gave hasnt, because we cant, is to predict if there will be any more government or local intervention. For example the example would be very different living inside or outside the London congestion zone.
I think we can agree its safe to assume any intervention will be BEV friendly and ICE adverse.